Conservatives vie to keep hold on power in Texas

Editor’s note: This report was updated on Oct. 31.

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: In February, state Secretary of State Jane Nelson announced there are nearly 18 million voters registered in Texas ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries. This is a record for the state where the population continues to spike. Texans do not have to register with a particular party but must identify their preferred party at the polling sites. Voting in a primary limits a voter to that party’s primaries for one full calendar year. Texas is still a reliably red state, but the margins have narrowed over the years. Trump won by a 9 percent margin in 2016 and just under 6 percent in 2020.

Voting: Voters are required to show an approved form of photo identification at their polling locations, though some may provide alternatives if they have a “reasonable impediment declaration.” These include utility bills and bank statements confirming identity and address. The state also allows mail-in voting on a limited basis and early in-person voting.

On Oct. 11, a federal judge struck down portions of a 2021 law that amended the state’s elections systems. The law banned compensation for people who assist disabled voters and did away with a requirement for assistants to disclose their relationship with the voter. Voter assistants must still sign an oath that the ballot reflects the voter’s wishes.

PRESIDENTIAL

The Lone Star State carries 40 electoral votes, up from 38 in 2020. It has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980. In 2020, former President Donald Trump won the state by 6.5 percent, the narrowest margin since former President Jimmy Carter won Texas by 3.1 percent in 1976.

Trump won the Republican primaries in March with nearly 78 percent of the vote. Then-candidate Nikki Haley carried more than 17 percent. President Joe Biden likewise won the Democratic primary. After he dropped out of the race, Texas’ delegates voted 260-6 to back Vice President Kamala Harris.

SENATE

Sen. Ted Cruz is up for reelection in the heavily red state, but his race has been closer than expected this year. In early October, the Cook Political Report reclassified the race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” In August, Cruz and his Democratic opponent were tied within the margin of error, but the latest polls show him roughly 4 points ahead as of mid-October.

• U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, 41, won the Democratic nomination in the Super Tuesday primary. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and they hope to break fundraising records to prop up Allred. The former NFL linebacker outraised Republican incumbent Ted Cruz by $1.4 million in the fourth quarter last year. He has run predominantly on a pro-abortion platform and support for the Affordable Care Act. The underdog candidate notably departed from his own party when he voted with Republicans in January to support a resolution condemning President Joe Biden’s “open-borders policies.” In a deep red state, Allred pitches himself as a bipartisan lawmaker, which appeals to an influx of new residents from states like California.

• Sen. Ted Cruz, 53, is battling to retain his seat for a third term, but he faced no primary opposition. He has raised more than $46 million in his reelection campaign so far. Cruz defeated Beto O’Rourke by less than 3 percentage points in 2018. After a failed presidential bid in 2016, he endorsed then-candidate Donald Trump and has supported Trump’s agenda ever since. Cruz objected to certifying President Biden’s electoral win in 2020 and continues to claim fraudulent votes changed the election results that year. He serves on the Senate Judiciary, Foreign Relations, and Commerce, Science, and Transportation committees. His Democratic opponents have revived a 2021 controversy when Cruz flew to Cancún as Texas was suffering a deadly ice storm that left most residents without electricity. Cruz says his work in Washington helps “fight against the radical Left who threaten to change what makes this state great.” Nevertheless, he also launched a “Democrats for Cruz” group shortly after Super Tuesday because “liberty is not partisan.”

U.S. HOUSE

Of Texas’ 38 U.S. House seats, 25 are held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. While Republicans expect to keep the majority, two elections could be tossups this year. Both political parties have identified Districts 15 and 34 as key funding races this cycle.

• In the 34th District, located in South Texas, Republican former Rep. Mayra Flores, 38, is seeking to win back her seat from Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez. Redistricting in 2022 merged their two districts, pitting incumbents against each other. Flores temporarily took the seat in a special election, but Gonzalez beat her in the general. Gonzalez is a three-term congressman and former private attorney. He is more of a moderate Democrat on Capitol Hill, pushing for more funding for border security and immigration system reform. Flores has made illegal immigration a pillar of her campaign. Born in Mexico, Flores argues that illegal immigrants are subverting the system and making life harder for Texans with legal status.

• In the 15th District, Rep. Monica De La Cruz is fighting for a second term. She flipped the district red in 2022 with 53 percent of the vote. Her opponent, Michelle Vallejo, returned this year to challenge her again. De La Cruz is a former small business owner, and she has said she represents the Republican values that Latino voters support. She has also said she will support Trump’s border policies in a second administration if elected. Vallejo is a co-owner at a local market and has made abortion her top priority. She said she would push to expand abortion access in the state, along with adding jobs.

• In the 18th District, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee died of pancreatic cancer in July. Her daughter, Erica Lee Carter, is running in a special election to fill the rest of her mother’s term, and Gov. Greg Abbott scheduled the special election for Nov. 5, the same day as the general election. If Carter wins, she will be in office only until January. In the general election, Democrats chose former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner to replace Jackson Lee as the party’s nominee. The Houston-area district is considered safely Democratic.

JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

• Texas Supreme Court: Three justices’ terms are up by the end of the year, and all three are running for reelection. Texans elect judges on a partisan basis. All nine current justices are Republican, including the three incumbents running for reelection: Jimmy Blacklock, John Devine, and Jane Bland. The terms last for six years. Devine narrowly defeated a Republican primary challenger on Super Tuesday, eking out a victory with just over 1 percentage point. Devine has frequently sparred with his fellow justices, especially over political matters. At a talk last year with voters, he called the other justices “brainwashed” and “RINOs” (Republican in Name Only).

Dig deeper:

• In Compassion, Addie Offereins reports from Eagle Pass, Texas, a town reaching a breaking point with illegal crossings.
• In Vitals, Leah Savas reports on how Texas’ pro-life laws still allow medical exceptions for abortion.
• In the Sift, Josh Schumacher reports on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision not to take up a Biden administration case against a Texas pro-life.
• On The World and Everything in It, Anna Johnansen Brown covers how Mexico’s immigration enforcement is providing relief for Texans.
• Addie reports on a violent Venezuelan gang and how Texas is responding with a terrorist designation and a strike team.
• Bonnie Pritchett covers conservation efforts in the Panhandle after wildfires

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.