Vote of confidence

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s precarious position at the head of the GOP in the House was strengthened on Wednesday afternoon by an internal party vote setting the trajectory of Republican leadership in the 119th Congress.

Republicans voted for Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana as party leader, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota as whip, and Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan as conference chairwoman. 

Johnson was unanimously picked for speaker. But his long-term job stability isn’t cemented yet. 

Republicans disagree on Johnson’s performance as speaker so far. Where some members see a successful tenure that culminated in maintaining a majority in the House, others are imagining what might have been—and what could be—with someone else in the role. For now, the embattled speaker has momentum from the conference’s vote of support and the backing of President-elect Donald Trump, who addressed House Republicans in the hours ahead of the vote.

According to some Republicans leaving the room, Trump spoke glowingly about Johnson.

“He supports Mike Johnson. I support Mike Johnson­. Mike Johnson is going to be the next speaker,” said Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., a member of the conservative-leaning Freedom Caucus.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Republicans looked poised to retake the House with just 12 undecided races remaining out of 435. Republicans have 216 of those and need just two more to clinch the chamber. Democrats, by contrast, would need a near-sweep with 11 of the remaining 12 seats to snatch victory from the GOP.

Despite their likely victory, Republicans are looking at a very slim majority—perhaps one just as threadbare as they had the past two years. At one point, the majority hung on by just one seat.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., one of Johnson’s biggest critics, said that the majority could have been larger if Johnson more aggressively pursued conservative wins.

“Here’s my issue: I think it’s very important for House Republicans to recognize that President Trump won the popular vote … [The House] should have a supermajority right now. We don’t have one. I think that’s because of the failures of this Congress.”

Now that Republicans presumably have control in the House, the Senate, and the White House, Greene’s expectations have gone up.

“The American people gave us a majority and said, ‘It’s for the MAGA agenda.’ This Republican-controlled majority did not do that. They were tone-deaf to members like me saying, ‘No, this is what voters want.’ I want to hear that recognition. I want to hear a path forward.”

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., believes Republican infighting caused more harm in the election than the GOP’s legislative record in the last Congress.

“The reason we didn’t have a crushing victory in the House is solely due to their buffoonery,” Van Orden said, referring to members who challenged Republican leaders in the House.  

He’s particularly resentful of Republican efforts led by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and seven other Republicans who last October voted with Democrats to remove then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Van Orden believes that kind of strategy needs to be a thing of the past.

“I think the American people want to see Congress act together,” he said. “The American people want to know that Congress is putting the interests of the American people above individual politicians’ wants and needs. That’s what my district wants.”

He has proposed stripping committee assignments from any member who voted in favor of a motion to vacate the speaker. He also supports changing the threshold for how many signatories it takes to force a vote on the speakership. Currently, it takes just one.

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, didn’t vote to remove McCarthy and hasn’t vocally supported removing Johnson, either. But he’s been clear about his stance: He wants to see more conservative wins. Is Johnson the man who can deliver them?

“Mike’s a friend. We had a great conversation at dinner last night,” Roy said when asked about the leadership vote. “But you know we will continue to go forward. It’s about what [we are] going to do to deliver the agenda that the American people sent us here to deliver.”

Johnson still has to survive a House-wide vote to retain the speakership in January. With a likely four- or five-seat margin, even slight Republican dissent could force multiple rounds of voting.

When I asked Roy if he would support Johnson on the floor in January, he declined to answer.

“At this point right now, we need to work through how this place is going to function,” he said.