Venezuelans plan to vote for change. But will it matter?

David Diaz worked as a petroleum engineer in Cabimas, Venezuela, before immigrating with his family to the United States in 2018 in search of a better future. He moved to Katy, Texas, and opened Pan Pa’ Venezuela, a bakery featuring Venezuelan specialties. Diaz still misses his country, but he said he doesn’t plan to return any time soon, adding that he sees no future there for his children. “We were assaulted once, and that’s what forced me to leave the country,” Diaz said. “I love Venezuela, but when you see your family at risk, you do anything to keep it safe.”

More than 7.7 million adults and children have fled from poverty and crime in Venezuela over the past two decades. With a competitive presidential campaign underway, some Venezuelans are daring to wonder whether change is finally coming. Opposition parties have revived enough popular force to seriously threaten leader Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power in the presidential elections on July 28, but political corruption also stands in the way.

In the 20th century, Venezuela boasted one of the most prosperous economies in the world, thanks in large part to its massive oil industry. When President Hugo Chávez took power in 1999, his socialist regime removed civil liberties and confiscated most private industries. Expensive welfare programs from the government artificially reduced poverty until 2010, when the national economy imploded. Now, more than 80 percent of Venezuelans live in poverty, compared to less than 40 percent when Chávez first took office. Most rely on either the government or their families in exile for funds to survive within the country.

Maduro, Chávez’s handpicked successor, has done little to resolve the economic crisis since becoming president in 2013. “You can never cover all your basic needs,” Caracas resident Antonio Vélez told me. “To do so comfortably, my family needs between $4,000 and $5,000 U.S. dollars per month, and that’s just impossible when the average Venezuelan earns less than $1,000. That’s not the Venezuela I grew up in.”

Some say the socialist system has also crippled the morale of Venezuelans who stayed behind. “It is preoccupying when you see that people depend on government bonuses that are not even enough to live, and are willing to do anything to get them,” said Linda de Márquez, founder of the Initiative for the Venezuelan Family. “That really saddens me, because I know that Venezuelans are hard-working, brilliant, and full of talents. This dependence mentality has done a lot of damage to the country.”

But the revival of the opposition under political activist María Corina Machado mounts a credible challenge that could break the socialist cycle. A former deputy of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Machado won the opposition primaries last October with 93 percent of the vote. Government officials barred Machado from running for office in January. Retired Venezuelan Ambassador Edmundo González Urrutia unexpectedly stepped in as her substitute and has rapidly gained popularity since April. González pledged to follow Machado’s platform, and Machado successfully transferred her popularity to him. He now leads the polls by nearly 50 points ahead of Maduro.

Venezuelan diplomat and former Caracas Gov. Diego Arria told me that an opposition victory is more feasible now than in previous years. “No one expected Machado’s landslide win in the primaries,” he said. “And by unifying the opposition parties, María Corina Machado embodies the strongest political movement I’ve ever seen in Venezuela.”

Even so, there are serious hurdles to an opposition win. Machado supports small government and free market policies, but she is more liberal when it comes to social issues. “Venezuelan culture is traditionally conservative,” de Márquez said. “I worry about her support for abortion, euthanasia, homosexuality, and the legalization of marijuana. I personally don’t feel there is a candidate that represents me.”

The corrupt electoral system in Venezuela poses the biggest obstacle to an opposition victory. Of the 5.5 million Venezuelans adults abroad, only 69,000 will be allowed to cast their votes at foreign consulates. That means that 25 percent of all eligible voters will be barred from participating in the presidential election.

If the opposition wins, the fate of Venezuela will still depend heavily on the United States’ commitment to ensure a transition of power in the months that follow. Former U.S. President Donald Trump actively pressured the regime during his administration, imposing more than 150 sanctions and endorsing the 2019 uprising of opposition candidate Juan Guaidó. But President Joe Biden’s approach of negotiating with Maduro by removing sanctions has so far proved ineffective. For many Venezuelans, Biden’s actions felt like a betrayal. In April, Biden reinstated some of the sanctions he had earlier removed.

Arria believes the United States hasn’t realized the gravity of the Venezuelan crisis and its effect on the region. “The Biden administration has not taken firm decisions to confront what is not a typical government, but a criminal state, and this has strengthened the dictatorship,” Arria said.

Maduro announced July 1 that he would resume talks with the United States less than a month before the Venezuelan elections. Four days later, Machado and González called on the Venezuelan armed forces to “stand on the side of the people” and ensure a fair electoral process. “Anything is possible when you face a tyranny like that of Maduro,” Arria said. “[Machado] can win the elections. But the other concern is whether the opposition will be able to enforce a victory, and that implies further speculation.”

Nearly 8 million Venezuelan migrants living abroad are watching along with the rest of the world, grieving for the harm that’s been done to their country and hoping for a different future. Maduro recently called on expats to return, promising them “growth, prosperity, quality of life, and humanity.” But for Diaz, and those who have built a better life elsewhere, it will take more than words to make that happen: “Safety is what forced me to leave, and it’s the same factor I demand in order to ever return.”