Two seats to spare

It usually takes more than a stiff breeze to set the policy trajectory for Congress. But for the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, it might well come to that.

With the results of the final outstanding House race and the loss of California Republican Rep. John Duarte’s seat on Tuesday evening, Republicans will have just a two-seat majority when the new Congress is sworn in Jan. 3. In practical terms, any number of unforeseen disruptions—a bad cold, a family tragedy, a delayed flight—could temporarily rob Republicans of their ability to legislate.

That uncertainty will put significant strain on Republican leadership as it goes about pursuing an ambitious list of Republican priorities in President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office—an agenda Republican lawmakers admit is still very much still up in the air.

But Duarte, the lame-duck Republican, says his expectations for the party going forward won’t change.

“I think we’re going to hang together and get through some of our differences,” Duarte told WORLD following his loss. “I think there’s going to be some disagreement. But I think we’re going to get a lot done.”

A slim majority is nothing new for the House. Right now, Republicans currently hold a four-seat majority, one of the smallest in the history of the chamber. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters that experience plays to his advantage.

“We know how to work with small majorities,” Johnson said Wednesday. “Do the math: We have nothing to spare. But all of our members know that this is a team effort, that we all have to row in the same direction.”

But while the party can agree on the generalities of what they want to do, the specifics of how Republicans will begin the next Congress are fuzzy at best. When it comes to wish-list items, Louisiana’s Rep. Steve Scalise, the No. 2 Republican in the House of Representatives and the party leader, rattled off a slew of priorities.

“We want permitting reform. [Electronic vehicle] credits have been talked about a lot. We’ve identified many funds, many items, that we’re going to repeal, but no decisions have been made on the full package,” Scalise said.

Scalise says he expects those elements to be a part of Republicans’ party-line tax bill they plan to prioritize at the outset of the 119th Congress.

But on the ground, several members of the House Ways and Means Committee said they are in the dark about the developing details—not just of the tax bill, but overarching party priorities.

“We don’t know where the chairman is on all this stuff,” Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., told me when I asked about some details of the tax bill. “I can’t make a comment on any of it right now.”

Several other members of the Ways and Means Committee gave WORLD similar answers.

The ambiguities of Republicans’ legislative agenda and their slim majority are further compounded by the seats they are about to lose. Two members will leave the chamber for cabinet positions. One already resigned.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has set a Jan. 28 date for the special election for Florida’s 1st Congressional District seat, vacated by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who resigned from the House but will not be pursuing a position in the Trump administration. A second special election, set for April 1, will fill the seat vacated by Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., who Trump has tapped to become his national security adviser. Politico has reported that Waltz will resign on inauguration day, Jan. 20. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., Trump’s pick for ambassador to the United Nations, has not said when she plans to leave the chamber.

That timeline means that for a brief window of time, Republicans could have a one-seat majority while the two seats are filled. And that’s good news for Democrats.

In the 118th Congress, Democrats have provided the votes needed to pass legislation for funding the government and sending aid to Ukraine—issues that have not garnered the support of the chamber’s most conservative members. When asked if Democrats would be willing to help Republicans pass bills again, Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., the No. 3 Democrat in the House, said that depends on what Republicans are asking for.

“The substance matters,” Aguilar said at a news conference on Wednesday. “There are Republicans who have proven time and time again they will not vote for a government funding bill. We know that the path forward means Democratic votes and Republican votes in order to keep the country moving.”

But Republicans may not need their help.

Duarte hopes that Democratic help won’t be needed. He feels that Trump, as president, will play a critical role in keeping Republicans together. If the president makes his presence felt, he believes Trump can keep the fringe of the GOP from disrupting the party’s plans.

“There’s going to be a lot of discipline,” Duarte said.