These states could get new voting maps in partisan throwdown

The Texas Senate is poised to adopt redrawn congressional maps that the House approved this week, possibly handing as many as five Democrat-controlled seats over to Republicans. The maps could change the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives where Texas holds 38 seats—25 of which are already filled by Republican lawmakers. A handful of other states—California, Florida, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, New York, Ohio, and Wisconsin—are reportedly considering similar plans.

The effort comes nearly five years ahead of schedule; it would normally only occur after the U.S. census, which is set to take place in 2030. After Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced plans last month to redo the state’s congressional districts in the middle of the cycle, President Donald Trump called on Lone Star State Republicans to follow through. If the plan succeeds, Texas’ redistricting would set a new precedent for partisan displays of power. Few limits exist to prevent the vast majority of states from doing the exact same thing.

Some states, like California and Virginia, do have restrictions on unilateral redistricting, which would require a change to their laws or constitution. (California Gov. Gavin Newsom is spearheading a ballot measure effort to do just that.) Of the country’s 50 states, 33 of them leave the creation of congressional districts largely in the hands of their legislatures. These states don’t mention congressional districts at all either in their constitutions or statutes, making them the most likely to see midcycle redistricting.

Here’s what it would take in each of those states for the legislature to redraw the congressional district boundaries.

Alabama

• Congressional seats: Five Republican, two Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta (control of both houses of the legislature and the governor’s seat)
• Alabama’s constitution does not mention congressional districts. Its laws only outline what areas of the state fall under which congressional districts. Notably, the statutes prohibit the legislature from redrawing its state legislative maps more than once every 10 years. Those restrictions do not apply to congressional districts.

Arkansas

• Congressional seats: Four Republican, zero Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• While the state statute specifies that “it is the intention of this subchapter to provide for congressional districts of substantially equal population,” it places no restrictions on the legislature’s attempts to draw congressional districts. Its constitution deals solely with representation in the state legislature.

Connecticut

• Congressional seats: Five Democratic, zero Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• Connecticut’s constitution only speaks to the redistricting process for its state legislature and specifies that the districts drawn will remain in place until the next U.S. census. In terms of Congress, the state’s statutes denote that only one member will represent each of the state’s five districts.

Florida

• Congressional seats: 20 Republican, eight Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• The Sunshine State’s five Democratic-held districts—amid total Republican control at the legislature level—make it a prime state for midcycle redistricting. It is reportedly considering doing just that. Florida’s constitution states that no congressional districts will be drawn to favor or disadvantage a political party. Its state codes say only that districts cannot be split or divided into noncontiguous areas. Any noncontiguous part of a district must be joined to the closest area of representation. That language may invite a legal challenge to a state map designed expressly to eliminate Democratic districts.

Georgia

• Congressional seats: Nine Republican, five Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• The constitution in the state of Georgia provides no direction on forming the state’s congressional districts. Its statutes do mention congressional districts, but only to instruct the legislature to divide the state into 14 areas of representation.

Illinois

• Congressional seats: 14 Democratic, three Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• The Illinois Constitution only makes mention of the state’s local representation and their districts. The statutes do not place any guidelines on the redistricting practice but merely lay out the boundaries of the states’ districts.

Indiana

• Congressional seats: Seven Republican, two Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• In Indiana, the constitution does not have any requirements for the congressional redistricting process. Its state statutes require the state to create districts for the U.S. House of Representatives after the first regular session following the decennial census but provide few other guidelines. There is no prohibition in the state codes about redistricting more often.

Iowa

• Congressional seats: Four Republican, zero Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Of the states that leave redistricting to the legislature, Iowa has some of the most robust protections against gerrymandering. The Iowa Constitution requires congressional districts to be continuous and forbids the legislature from drawing districts through county lines. Its statutes build on that framework, adding that districts must have equal populations and be compact—square, rectangular, or hexagonal in shape. The codes also state that “no district shall be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent legislator, or member of Congress.” The legislature is prohibited from using politically charged data like a registered voters map or maps detailing the results of past elections.

Kansas

• Congressional seats: Three Republican, one Democratic
• State balance of power: Democratic governor, Republican Senate, House of Representatives
• The Sunflower State only has one congressional district controlled by Democrats, but it may consider a redistricting shakeup to eliminate it. In Kansas, the state’s constitution deals solely with state legislative representation. In the event a piece of Kansas’ territory isn’t represented by a congressional district, the state’s statutes include a provision that directs the legislature to incorporate that portion of the state into the nearest district or whichever adjacent district has the lowest population. It includes no restrictions on congressional redistricting

Kentucky

• Congressional seats: Five Republican, one Democratic
• State balance of power: Democratic governor, Republican control of state Senate, House of Representatives
• Kentucky’s constitution says nothing about the congressional redistricting process or what limits must be considered in its map making. Similarly, the state’s statutes dictate only what data must be used to determine population but are moot on any process that would govern the creation of congressional districts.

Louisiana

• Congressional seats: Four Republican, two Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Louisiana’s constitution spells out a process for redistricting for state legislative districts but remains moot on congressional districts. Its law spells out which portions of the state fall under which congressional districts and dictates that only one member of Congress will represent each.

Maine

• Congressional seats: Two Democratic, zero Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• In Maine, the state’s constitution does not lay out any process for congressional redistricting. The state’s statutes require a commission to review the existing congressional districts. In the event that review finds that they do not conform with Supreme Court judicial guidelines, the commission is authorized to reapportion the state’s districts. The law also instructs the legislature to design compact districts formed of continuous territory. Such districts must cross political subdivisions the fewest number of times possible.

Maryland

• Congressional seats: Seven Democratic, one Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• Maryland is one of the states rumored to be considering a midcycle shakeup of its congressional maps despite having only one Republican seat. Its constitution says little of even its state-level representation and makes no mention of congressional districts. Maryland’s code sets no limitations on redistricting but requires the legislature to work around incarcerated populations when considering population distribution and subsequent representation.

Massachusetts

• Congressional seats: Nine Democratic, zero Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• The constitution in Massachusetts provides some requirements for the state legislature’s areas of representation but doesn’t mention Congress. State code lays out the state’s congressional districts themselves but places no restrictions on the legislature’s process for creating them.

Minnesota

• Congressional seats: Four Democratic, four Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic governor and state Senate, divided state House
• The only mention the Minnesota Constitution makes of the state’s congressional districts is to put their creation under the power of the legislature. The state’s statutes only add that districts should be of
  “convenient contiguous territory substantially equal in population.”

Mississippi

• Congressional seats: Three Republican, one Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Mississippi’s constitution provides only very loose instruction for the creation of state legislative districts, omitting mention of boundaries for congressional representation. The Mississippi statutes require that congressional districts adhere to federal standards and that they must be created after the national census. Additionally, it stipulates that districts should be compact and made of continuous territory—crossing governmental or political boundaries the least number of times possible. They are also required to avoid crossing county lines.

Missouri

• Congressional seats: Six Republican, two Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Missouri is reportedly looking to follow Texas’ lead and re-draw its congressional districts. While detailing a drawn-out process for state legislature redistricting, the Missouri Constitution remains silent on its congressional districts. The code adds little more, stating only that Missouri will have eight congressional districts with one representative each.

Nebraska

• Congressional seats: Three Republican, no Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican governor, nonpartisan legislature
• Nebraska’s constitution includes little mention of its state legislative areas of representation, making no reference to congressional districts. The Nebraska statutes only outline the census data to be taken into consideration when forming its congressional districts and that only one member will represent each. Nebraska has only one chamber in its state legislature and does not list members’ party affiliations.

Nevada

• Congressional seats: Three Democratic, one Republican
• State balance of power: Republican governor, Democratic state Senate and state Assembly
• Nevada’s constitution makes no mention of congressional districts. Its code only establishes the boundaries of the state’s congressional representation, providing no limitations on what considerations its legislature may take into account.

New Hampshire

• Congressional seats: Two Democratic, zero Republican
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• The constitution of New Hampshire deals solely with its state legislature. The New Hampshire statutes only establish its two congressional districts’ parameters.

New Mexico

• Congressional seats: Three Democratic, zero Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• While New Mexico’s state constitution remains quiet on congressional districts, the state’s code lays out a handful of requirements. It mandates areas of representation be equal in population with a variance of less than 10% and stipulates that they must be reasonably compact. Additionally, the legislature’s map-drawing committee is forbidden from using data such as party registration history or voting history to divide districts. That being said, the code does not forbid any midcycle redistricting effort.

North Carolina

• Congressional seats: 10 Republican, four Democratic
• State balance of power: Democratic governor, Republican state Senate and state House
• Notably, North Carolina’s constitution forbids the legislature from altering state-level districts between the national decennial census, effectively locking in areas of representation for 10-year windows. But those requirements do not apply to congressional districts. The state’s code only establishes the parameters of districts but imposes no limitations on the legislature’s map-drawing process.

Ohio

• Congressional seats: 10 Republican, five Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Ohio is another state reportedly considering a midcycle redistricting effort. While Ohio’s constitution includes extensive instruction about apportionment of seats in its state legislature, the Buckeye State’s constitution says nothing about its congressional representation. Portions of the state code detail which census data the boundary mappers must take into consideration but do not outline any restrictions or frameworks for the process.

Oklahoma

• Congressional seats: Five Republican, zero Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• In Oklahoma, the constitution only lays out instructions for the apportionment of state legislative districts. The state code sets up the geographical boundaries of its congressional representation, stating nothing else about what processes lawmakers should or shouldn’t adopt in establishing them.

Oregon

• Congressional seats: Five Democratic, one Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• Oregon’s state constitution makes no mention of its congressional districts or how to establish them. The state’s statutes do provide a little direction, stating that districts must be continuous, use existing political boundaries, not divide communities of interest, and not be drawn to benefit a political party.

Pennsylvania

• Congressional seats: 10 Republican, seven Democratic
• State balance of power: Democratic governor and state House, Republican state Senate
• Unlike the majority of states on this list, neither Pennsylvania’s constitution nor the state code outline rules for its congressional representation. The legislature simply passes a bill denoting its state’s maps, but that process is not bound by any requirement in either document.

Rhode Island

• Congressional seats: Two Democratic, zero Republican
• State balance of power: Democratic trifecta
• Like Pennsylvania, Rhode Island also has no requirements in its constitution nor in its state code that apply to the creation of congressional districts. It has extensive requirements at the state legislature level—and even for its townships.

South Carolina

• Congressional seats: Six Republican, one Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• South Carolina’s constitution does not specify guidelines for the establishment of congressional districts. The state’s statutes say little more, detailing only that the state is divided into seven districts and listing the geographical areas of the state associated with each of those districts.

Tennessee

• Congressional seats: Seven Republican, one Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Although the Tennessee Constitution does not speak to congressional districts, it notably codifies a right for the legislature to practice gerrymandering on a political basis. It states that “nothing [in the constitution] shall deny to the General Assembly the right to apportion one House of the General Assembly using geography [or] political subdivisions.” Remarkably, Tennessee’s code is one of the few that outright prohibits midcycle redistricting.

Texas

• Congressional seats: 25 Republican, 12 Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• Texas is one of the few states that makes no mention of congressional districts and their apportionment either in the constitution or in the state’s statutes. Texas’ size—along with unified GOP control—make the state ideal for Republicans to try to reshape congressional districts in their favor.

Utah

• Congressional seats: Four Republican, zero Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• In Utah, the state’s constitution directs the legislature to set up congressional districts after the decennial census, adding no additional requirements or frameworks for the process. Utah’s statutes similarly only ascribe the responsibility of creating the four districts to state-level government without any requirements.

West Virginia

• Congressional seats: Two Republican, zero Democratic
• State balance of power: Republican trifecta
• The state constitution in West Virginia instructs the legislature to draw the state’s congressional boundaries in four compact and continuous districts. The state code lays out the boundaries of those districts but does not provide any additional requirements or frameworks for that apportionment.

Wisconsin

• Congressional seats: Six Republican, two Democratic
• State balance of power: Democratic governor, Republican state House and state Senate
• The Badger State may also be planning a midcycle redistricting effort, but amid a divided state government, any new maps would not likely get adopted. Wisconsin’s state constitution deals solely with the drawing of its state legislature districts, offering no instruction on how its government should design its areas of congressional representation. The Wisconsinstatutes only outline the geographic boundaries of those districts and remain silent on limitations on lawmakers. It denotes that each district should have one only representative. The governor can veto a redistricting plan like any other piece of legislation. The legislature may override such a veto, but would need a two-thirds majority in each chamber to do it—something Republicans can’t do on their own given the legislature’s current makeup.