These races could mean the majority for House GOP

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., leads the smallest House majority in the history of the chamber. While he hopes to grow the party’s numbers, Johnson’s top concern for the Nov. 5 general election is defending some of the most vulnerable seats in the House. Any one of these races could decide whether Republicans retain a majority in 2025.

The results of these races will say a lot about the down-ballot influence of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, along with what priorities voters ultimately took with them to the polls. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election tracker, designates 25 races this year as “toss-ups.” WORLD has analyzed nine of the most competitive that involve Republican incumbents.

New York, District 4

• The midterms: Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., won his election in 2022 against Democratic nominee Laura Gillen in a 51 percent-48 percent victory.
• The incumbent: D’Esposito, 42, has been a moderate voice among Republicans. Most of the bills D’Esposito introduced had to do with national security and government accountability. He led efforts alongside other New York Republicans to expel Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., for abusing campaign finances and misleading donors. In September, D’Esposito came under fire when the New York Times broke a story detailing how the congressman had allegedly had an affair and then put his partner on the payroll for his campaign, violating ethics guidelines.
• State of play: In this year’s election, D’Esposito will once again face off against Laura Gillen, a former Hempstead, N.Y., town supervisor. In an October poll put out by Siena College, Gillen leads D’Esposito by 53 percent-41 percent.
• The district: New York’s 4th District is contained in Nassau County. In 2020, a majority of the county, 54.3 percent, voted for President Joe Biden, with 44.7 percent voting for Trump. The Cook Political Report lists NY-04 as a D+5 district.

New York, District 19

• The midterms: Freshman Rep. Marcus Molinaro, R-N.Y., won his election in 2022 in a narrow 50.8 percent victory over Democratic candidate Josh Riley, who garnered 49.2 percent of the vote. Riley, a private attorney, is running again for the seat this year.
• The incumbent: Molinaro, 49, has been a strong advocate for the implementation of the state and local tax deductions (SALT), and he helped tank the passage of H.R. 4368 because of its exclusion. That aside, he has supported Speaker Johnson in clashes with the most conservative flank of the GOP and called for party unity over conservative purity. He has championed comparatively moderate positions, especially on immigration and abortion. Molinaro co-sponsored legislation that would create federal guarantees for IVF procedures.
• State of play: According to findings from RMG Research, Inc. published last month, Molinaro trails Riley by 39 percent to 42 percent, with 18 percent of respondents saying they were undecided.
• The district: Of the 10 counties that comprise New York’s 19th District, seven of them voted for Trump in 2020 by an average of 15.6 percent points. The remaining three voted for Biden by an average of 24.5 percent. The Cook Political Report lists NY-19 as a R+1 district.

New Jersey, District 7

• The midterms: In 2022, freshman Congressman Thomas Kean Jr., R-N.J., secured a congressional seat against Democratic nominee Tom Malinowski in a 51.4 percent-48.6 percent victory.
• The incumbent: Kean, 56, is known on Capitol Hill for his tight-lipped approach to his work, prompting accusations of a lack of public engagement. While he once clearly articulated his support for the “sanctity of life,” Kean has called himself “pro-choice” in the lead up to the 2024 election. Sponsoring 28 bills in the 118th Congress, he has focused on foreign affairs and technology-related legislation. A member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Kean has supported equipping Ukraine with long-range striking capabilities in their ongoing conflict with Russia.
• State of play: According to findings from Monmouth University published earlier this month, 46 percent of registered voters said they would support Kean while 44 percent they would back Democratic challenger Sue Altman, a former union organizer, teacher, and basketball coach. The remaining 10 percent said they had no candidate of choice.
• The district: Of the four districts that make up New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, three of them voted for Trump in 2020 by an average 13.4 percent. The remaining district, Morris County, voted for Biden by 4.2 percent. Cook Political Report lists NJ-7 as a R+1 district.

Pennsylvania, District 10

• The midterms: Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., won reelection for a sixth term in 2022 against Democratic opponent Shamaine Daniels in a 53.8 percent-46.2 percent victory.
• The incumbent: Perry, a former veteran and state representative, has aligned himself closely with the House Freedom Caucus, a coalition of the chamber’s most conservative lawmakers. In 2022, he was selected to become the group’s leader. He was among the 147 Republicans who voted against certifying the last presidential election’s results. This year, a group of five former Republican lawmakers published a letter, endorsing his opponent, citing that certification vote and what they perceived as a lack of bipartisanship.
• State of play: According to a poll put out by SP&R, Perry trails Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson by 48 percent-39 percent with 11 percent of respondents undecided. Stelson, an Emmy-award winning broadcast journalist, has not previously held office.
• The district: Of the three counties that make up Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, two of them voted for Trump by an average 17.6 percent margin. Biden carried the remaining county by 8.5 percent. Cook Political Report lists PA-10 as a R+5 district.

Nebraska, District 2

• The midterms: Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., won his election in 2022 against Democratic nominee Tony Vargas, 40, by a 51.3 percent-48.7 percent margin. Vargas, a former educator and nonprofit consultant, has served as a representative in the Nebraska Legislature since 2016. He is once again challenging Bacon for the seat.
• The incumbent: Bacon, 61, is known as a moderate. He is a member of the centrist Problem Solvers Caucus and was one of the 37 Republicans who voted to certify the 2020 election results as well as one of the 35 members who voted to create the committee to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. He is a member of the Agriculture Committee. Of the 61 bills he has sponsored in the 118th Congress, many have to do with small business, agriculture, and defense.
• State of play: Polling by the New York Times published late September found Bacon trailing Vargas by 49 percent-46 percent with 6 percent of respondents who declined to answer.
• The district: Of the three counties that make up Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, two of them voted for Trump by an average of 28.2 percent. The remaining county, Douglas County, voted for Biden in a 54.7 percent-43.3 percent margin. Douglas was one of two counties to vote for Biden in 2020. The Cook Political Report lists NE-2 as a dead-even district—the only toss-up race with such a designation.

Arizona, District 1

• The midterms: David Schweikert, R-Ariz., successfully secured his congressional seat for a seventh time in 2022 against Democratic challenger Jevin Hodge in a narrow 50.4 percent-49.6 percent victory.
• The incumbent: Schweikert, 62, sits on the Ways and Means Committee, and is the chairman of the oversight subcommittee. Schweikert, an adoptee, has resolutely supported pro-life policies. Schweikert sponsored 35 bills in the 118th Congress, many of which had to do with telehealth, national security, the IRS, and technology development.
• State of play: Schweikert is running against Amish Shah. Polling from the DCCC puts the race even with both candidates tied at 48 percent and 4 percent of respondents undecided. Shah, who runs a sports medical treatment practice and formerly worked as a strategy consultant, has served as a member of the Arizona state legislature since 2019.
• The district: Arizona’s 1st Congressional District is contained within Maricopa County, one of the most influential electorates in the United States. Because of its population density, the county has helped determine Arizona in past presidential elections. This year, Maricopa is expected again to play a decisive role. In 2020, the county narrowly voted for Biden by a 50.3 percent-48.1 percent margin. The Cook Political Report lists AZ-1 as an R+2 district.

California, District 13

• The midterms: Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif., won election in 2022 in a wide 54.9 percent-45.1 percent victory over Democratic candidate Adam Gray.
• The incumbent: Duarte, 58, has carved out a moderate position among the House GOP. He has been one of the loudest critics on attempts to remove Speaker Johnson. Duarte has called for Republicans to expand the immigration provisions included in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) in exchange for more restrictive asylum reform. When asked about efforts to impeach Biden, Duarte said he saw it largely as a political and practical consideration but stood by Republican claims that Biden had unlawfully accepted gifts as an unregistered foreign agent from foreign actors.
• State of play: According to polling last month from the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at the University of Southern California, Duarte trails 42.4 percent to Gray’s 44.4 percent. Just over 10 percent of respondents said they hadn’t decided, while another 2.7 percent said they would not vote.
• The district: Of the five counties that make up California’s 13th district, four of them voted for Biden. On average, Biden carried those counties by 8.2 percent of the vote. The Cook Political Report lists CA-13 as a D+4 district.

California, District 22

• The midterms: Freshman Rep. David Valadao beat out Democratic candidate Rudy Salas in a 51.5 percent-48.5 percent victory in 2022.
• The incumbent: Valadao has stayed out of the spotlight compared to many of his fellow Republicans in tight elections, avoiding high-profile, intra-party conflicts. Of the 56 bills he has sponsored, many have to do with managing natural resources like water alongside government oversight and transparency. Most recently, he introduced a bill calling for supplemental appropriations for disaster relief in the wake of Hurricane Helene. Valadao also sits on the powerful appropriations committee and helped put together the appropriations bill on the Executive Branch for 2025.
• State of play: Rudy Salas is once again squaring off against Valadao. Salas, a five-term California assemblyman, has a slight edge over Valadao according to findings from a Emerson College/Nexstar poll put out late last month. He leads the incumbent by the slimmest of margins 45.4 percent to Valadao’s 45.0 percent.
• The district: Of the counties that make up CA-22, all three voted for Trump in 2020 by an average of 10.1 percent. The Cook Political Report lists it as a D+5 district.

California, District 27

• The midterms: Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., secured a congressional seat after beating out Democratic nominee George Whitesides in a 54.9 percent-32.8 percent victory. Whitesides, 50, was the chief of staff for NASA during the Obama administration and is once again running for the seat.
• The incumbent: Garcia first won election to congress in 2020 in California’s 25th district. In 2022, he ran in the 27th district. Of the 36 bills he sponsored in the 118th Congress, he has focused largely on tax policy and foreign affairs. He introduced legislation that would have implemented state and local deductions (SALT) that many other California and New York Republicans have called for. He was among the 147 Republicans who voted against certifying the last presidential election’s results.
• State of play: A poll put out by the University of Southern California late last month puts Garcia with a slight edge over Whitesides. He leads the Democratic challenger 46.2 percent-42.5 percent.
• The district: California’s 27th district is contained within Los Angeles County. In 2020, the county voted for Biden by a 71.0 percent-26.9 percent margin. The Cook Political Report lists CA-27 as a D+4 district.