The Methodist progressive who wants to flip a red Kansas Senate seat

It’s been nearly a century since Kansas last elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, but with the midterms less than three weeks away, an increasingly competitive race threatens that streak. Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is fighting to keep his seat amid a challenge from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, founder of the largest United Methodist church in the country.

Hamilton, a former Republican, had initially considered running as an independent. He ultimately launched his campaign in April as a Democrat while championing a message of independent leadership. Election Day will soon reveal if Hamilton’s strategy, which he described on ABC News as bringing “the best of these two parties together,” will grant him the voter turnout needed to flip a historically red seat—and how that tactic would practically affect his policy decisions.

“If you’ve watched Kansas politics or church life in Kansas for a number of years, you’re aware of Adam Hamilton, who he is,” said Brittany Jones, president of Kansas Family Voice. “Even though he’s never run for anything before, we’ve all known he was toying with something for years. … He has a 20,000 [person] built captive audience in his church, he’s very well known, especially in the Kansas City community, and he’s very convincing for a lot of people.”

In a 2021 interview with Mark Tooley, president of the Institute on Religion and Democracy, Hamilton spoke to his political identity—as his church navigated taking the progressive side in the then-imminent Methodist denomination split over same-sex marriage.

“The world needs us to be progressive evangelicals and evangelical progressives,” said Hamilton. “People ask me, ‘You know, I can’t figure you out. Are you liberal or conservative?’ And my answer is always yes, of course.”

Five years later, Hamilton announced that he would run for political office.

Tooley, who aligns himself with the conservative side of the Methodist split, said that Hamilton became a de facto leader of Methodism’s progressive faction, and called him a “frenemy” from the church battles. He said he was surprised when Hamilton decided to run for elected office but knew that his charm, people skills, and articulate speech made him a natural politician.

“I have been negative towards clergy running for public office and negative towards clergy being politically outspoken from the pulpit in that I think their vocation is to pastor and to proclaim the gospel,” said Tooley. “But obviously, there are some clergy who have strong political talents and strong political interests, and sometimes they run for public office.”

Over 700 pastors, ministry leaders, and members of churches in Kansas and elsewhere have signed an open letter calling on Hamilton to resign from his Senate campaign. Titled “To the Rev. Adam Hamilton,” the letter addresses Hamilton as a pastor, arguing that he has not kept faith with the Bible he was ordained to preach, both in his teachings and his campaign. But while many conservatives reject Hamilton’s campaign, his appeal to some GOP voters—including the endorsement of two former Republican governors of Kansas—is evident.

Hamilton’s opponent, Sen. Roger Marshall, has held political office for nearly a decade. In January 2017 he began serving the first of two terms as a representative for Kansas’ 1st Congressional District, and in 2020 he secured his Senate seat in what the Associated Press reported as the most expensive political race in Kansas history. Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves, a Republican, told PBS News that he supported Marshall early on in his political career but that since he became a senator, Marshall has “pretty much been a yes vote for anything the administration wants.” Graves argued, “There are times you have to stand up and look out for the best interests of your state.”

According to a VoteHub study that measures how often a member of Congress votes in line with President Donald Trump’s position—Marshall’s score is 100%.

Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, but now, the GOP appears to be playing catch-up. In early October, reports found that a super PAC aligned with top Senate Republicans shifted millions of dollars in funding into Marshall’s campaign while pulling back funding from North Carolina. And last week, the Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

But amid the influx of Republican cash, Hamilton’s campaign has also raised significant funds. At an event in early October, Hamilton responded to the GOP’s decision to increase spending in Marshall’s campaign and championed his own fundraising—which has since gained an additional $5 million from a super PAC aligned with Senate Democrats, according to reports.

“We’ve done really well, we’ve raised … $14.5 million … which is more than any candidate has raised in their first five months, Republican or Democrat, in the history of Kansas. And I’m very grateful for that.” said Hamilton. “I heard one senator say, ‘Well, Kansas is a fat man’s layup. No Republican should lose in Kansas.’ And they’re plunking $10 million in because they’re afraid.”

I reached out to Marshall’s office for comment on increased Republican spending in Kansas but did not hear back.

“It’s just not clear to me that you can really fill up social media and the ad space on television enough to really offset the advantages that Hamilton has right now,” said Don Haider-Markel, a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.

Haider-Markel told me that Marshall has been an unpopular senator for a variety of reasons but that the close race in Kansas has more to do with national trends than an individual candidate. Haider-Markel said the economy is a top issue for Kansans, and that the U.S. war with Iran—which has now cost each U.S. household over $1,000, according to Brown University calculations—is front of mind. The latest polls by Pew Research Center also indicate that Trump’s approval ratings have dropped to 31% nationwide—just 2 points away from the lowest rating of his first term at 29%.

Despite this, the GOP has frequently placed Trump at the center of its election messaging. The party featured the president as a headliner at its first-ever midterm convention in Dallas in early September, where Trump repeatedly asked voters to “pretend that I’m on the ballot.” On Monday, Trump said he will come to Kansas soon to support Marshall, but Haider-Markel is unsure of how beneficial this visit will be for the Republican candidate.

“[Trump’s] not popular in the state right now, even amongst core Republicans,” said Haider-Markel. “Even though his administration sees this as MAGA stronghold, I think it’s just really weakened for them quite a bit. Given the industry that the Kansas economy relies on, we’re a state that is hurt very much by Trump policies. So, for Marshall to show up at a campaign event with Trump, I think, hurts him.”

During a September Kansas State Fair debate between the Senate candidates, Marshall appeared to create some distance from the White House while explaining his thoughts on Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend, stating he needed to review its $1.2 trillion price tag, adding, “This is not the first time I’ve disagreed with President Trump, and it probably won’t be the last.”

Amid the increasingly competitive race, Marshall’s campaign has also used attack ads to accuse Hamilton of covering up child sex abuse at his church—allegations Trump also referenced in a Monday Truth Social post. In an October letter to Marshall, more than 450 members of Hamilton’s congregation, the Church of the Resurrection, called the accusations of a cover-up “despicable” and “untrue.”

In an emailed statement to me, the church wrote that its representatives investigated the original incident, which happened at a youth retreat over 21 years ago, but they said that the report was inconclusive due to uncertainties about what took place and the identity of the suspect. Later, when a second accusation arose, the suspected volunteer was immediately removed and leaders called law enforcement, the church said. Eventually, the former volunteer was prosecuted and convicted.

“The safety and protection of children and vulnerable adults is a priority for Resurrection that is and always has been taken very seriously,” the church said. “The Church has continued to evolve its policies, and the improvements that developed as a result of this tragedy later became a model for screening and training programs now used by thousands of churches nationwide.”

Marshall’s campaign has also fielded attacks, including criticism of his million-dollar home in Sarasota, Fla., (Hamilton also owns a home outside of Kansas) and recent allegations surrounding lawsuits Marshall filed against patients during his decadeslong career as an OB-GYN. But regardless of the attacks both candidates face, voter turnout may be the deciding factor for the tight Senate race.

“Republicans are just not enthusiastic about voting. … In a lot of people’s minds we either won two years ago, or they’re getting things that they didn’t vote for. They didn’t vote for a war in Iran. They didn’t vote for higher gas prices.” said Brittany Jones of Kansas Family Voice. “That’s a nationwide problem. … And in this case of Kansas, you have a lot of Democrats who are very enthusiastic about voting for Adam Hamilton, and so that creates a problem for us.”

In August, Kansas voters shot down a Republican-backed proposal aimed at changing how the state selects its Supreme Court justices, and in 2022, voters similarly defeated an amendment to end the state constitutional right to abortion. Haider-Markel said Democratic and independent voters turn out in higher numbers in Kansas. He said that the election of Democratic governors in Kansas, including the current term-limitted Gov. Laura Kelly, whose imminent departure unleashed a competitive gubernatorial race, also reveals a path for Democrats to be successful statewide.

“And I think Adam Hamilton is on that path,” said Haider-Markel. “If I was one to bet on elections, I still wouldn’t bet on the Democrat. I just think that, um, this is going to be a very close race, and it could go either way.”