The making of a majority

By the time the last few moments of Tuesday night had turned into the first few minutes of Wednesday morning, it was clear Republicans would take control of the U.S. Senate. But just how big that majority will be—and who will lead it—are still questions with answers in the making.

Sen. Deb Fischer, the senior senator out of Nebraska, clinched control of the chamber for the GOP.

“We are so excited,” Fischer said moments after her victory, waving at the crowd in front of her. “All these guys out here—you know what that means.”

While a number of outstanding Senate races could grow the fledgling GOP majority further (Results from Arizona, Nevada, and Montana could all grow that figure) Republicans’ gains ultimately came down to three races early on on Tuesday night.

West Virginia
Tuesday started with a win Republicans had looked forward to for the better part of two years. Ever since Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., announced in May 2023 that he would not seek reelection, Republicans knew they had an opportunity to flip a blue seat to a red one, capitalizing on socioeconomic changes decades in the making.

West Virginia State Del. Chuck Horst told WORLD then that he had watched the state become more conservative. He pointed to voter registration numbers as evidence a Democrat could not win in the Mountain State’s open seat. In 2016, 47% of registered voters in the state identified as Democrats, he said. By last month, that number had dwindled to just 29.3%.

“I think anyone with the ‘R’ is going to be more representative. I’m looking forward to West Virginia moving forward,” Horst told WORLD in anticipation of Election Day.

That “R” and Manchin’s seat will belong to the state’s current governor, Jim Justice, who beat Democratic candidate Glenn Elliot, former mayor of Wheeling, W.Va., in a landslide 68.8%-27.7% victory.

“What I don’t understand is—they called this race at 7:31. Polls closed at 7:30. What took them so long?” Justice said in his victory address.

Ohio

The night also came with some surprises—in Ohio.

While Republicans expected sure-wins in West Virginia and Montana (that one hasn’t been decided yet), they did not see Ohio as an easy win in the 2024 race for the Senate. And yet, as former car salesman and businessman Bernie Moreno forced out Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the senior senator from the Buckeye state, it was clear control of the chamber was within Republicans’ grasp.

Moreno’s 50.6%-46.0% victory unseated a long-established incumbent. Brown first assumed office in 2007 and served three terms, securing reelection in 2012 and then 2018. Brown last won his seat with a 53.4%-46.6% victory over Republican challenger Jim Renacci. In the Senate, he chairs the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. At the time of the 2024 election, he was the only Democrat to hold statewide office in Ohio.

Moreno framed his race as a bid for control of the Senate.

“Chuck Schumer, if you’re watching, you’re fired, buddy,” Moreno said during his victory speech, referencing the current Senate majority leader from New York.

Nebraska

Fischer’s race for a third Senate term became trickier than many had anticipated when independent candidate Dan Osborn pulled out an early lead against the incumbent. Fischer eventually overcame Osborn’s momentum, finishing the night with 52% of the vote, a slim but definitive victory over Osborn’s 48%.

Fischer didn’t just secure Republicans a majority—she also eliminated the ambiguity of an independent senator in the mix. Osborn remained fiercely independent until the end of his campaign, rejecting donations from prominent partisan giving platforms and refusing to say whether he intended to caucus with Republicans or Democrats.

During the campaign, Fischer framed Osborn as a left-wing operative who had yet to show his true colors.

“Thank you, Nebraska,” Fischer said in her victory speech. “Nearly $30 million—that’s the amount of money out-of-state Democrats spent trying to buy a Nebraska Senate seat. It did not happen.”

Next steps

The Senate returns to session next week. But unlike the past four presidential elections, it comes with uncertainty about who will lead the Republican majority in Congress’ upper chamber. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky announced he would not seek the leadership nomination from his colleagues, opening the door to a new figurehead for Republicans. Senators have been tight-lipped about the impending internal election, which is set to take place just one day after the Senate reconvenes on Nov. 12. Three senators have made their bid for the position: Sens. John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and Rick Scott of Florida.

McConnell has not endorsed any of the three candidates.