The Great Lakes State is up for grabs

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: Nearly 8.4 million voters were registered in Michigan for the state’s Aug. 6 general primary. Michigan voters do not register by party affiliation. For primaries, they can only vote in one party’s elections.

Michigan has a reputation as a swing state, based on the presidential elections of recent years. A precinct-level analysis by Bridge Michigan showed Democratic support rising in cities, with some suburbs flipping to Democratic from 2016 to 2020. Meanwhile, Republican support increased in rural areas.

Voting: Starting with the presidential primary on Feb. 27, the state opened in-person sites for early voting. It must do so for every federal and state election in accordance with a 2022 amendment to the state constitution. Early, in-person voting for the general election will run from Oct. 26 to Nov. 3.

Michigan’s registered voters can vote through the mail using an absentee ballot. The absentee ballots can be requested through the mail or from a local clerk. Voters can also sign up to receive an absentee ballot automatically for every election.

PRESIDENTIAL

Well over a million Republicans voted in the Feb. 26 presidential primary. The Democratic vote was split at that time by pro-Palestinian sentiment. About 13 percent of Democrats cast a protest vote of “uncommitted” on their ballots rather than for President Joe Biden. The demonstration, combined with lower Democratic turnout, resulted in former President Donald Trump gathering more primary votes than Biden.

Michigan was the only state to lose population in the 2010 census, and it has grown little in the decade afterward. It lost one Electoral College vote after the 2020 census, bringing it to just 15 in 2024 from a peak of 21 in the 1970s.

A swing state in recent years, Trump flipped Michigan red in 2016, only to have Biden carry it in 2020 by a margin of 2.8 percentage points. Michigan voters chose Democratic candidates for president in the six straight elections from 1992 to 2012 and Republicans in the five elections from 1972 to 1988.

U.S. SENATE

A highly-watched race is shaping up to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat. The Cook Political Report lists the race as a tossup.

• In the Aug. 6 primary, former U.S. Rep Mike Rogers, 61, easily won the Republican nomination. A former FBI agent, Rogers retired from the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014 after nearly 20 years in public service. Since then, he has appeared on CNN as a national security expert and host of the show Declassified: Untold Stories of American Spies. He has campaigned for the Senate on advancing the economy to lower consumer costs, and taking a firm foreign policy stand against communist China. Rogers also campaigned for closing the U.S. southern border and quelling rising crime rates with tougher policies.

• Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, 48, also easily advanced in the primary race for Senate. She began serving in the House in 2019 and has campaigned on lowering prescription drug costs and strengthening supply chains. She previously was employed by the CIA as an analyst and worked in different defense and intelligence roles for the Bush and Obama administrations.

U.S. HOUSE

Michigan has seven Democratic and six Republican representatives in the U.S. House. Two races merit close attention:

• In the 8th District, Rep. Dan Kildee, a Democrat, is not seeking reelection. Democrat state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, 54, will face off with Republican Paul Junge for the 8th District in central Michigan. Junge is a former prosecutor, news anchor, and public affairs officer for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. He supports requiring asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while awaiting hearings, and he backs laws that protect babies from abortion with exceptions for the life of the mother. McDonald Rivet is pro-abortion and anti-gun. Her platform emphasizes bringing higher-paying jobs to the state and improving workforce readiness. Both candidates easily won in the Aug. 6 primary.

• Incumbent U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, 42, flipped her seat Democratic in 2022 after 46 years of Republican representation. A former immigration attorney, she won West Michigan’s 3rd District in 2022 by 13 percentage points over a former Trump administration official. She opposes legal protections for unborn babies and wants to impose stricter regulations on health insurance companies Her Republican challenger Paul Hudson, also an attorney, is expected to make it a close race. He earlier unsuccessfully ran for the state Supreme Court with the Republican Party’s nomination. He wants to improve the economy through deregulation, lower taxes, and less government spending.

JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

• Two state Supreme Court seats are up for grabs in this election. Incumbent Justice Kyra Harris Bolden is a recent appointee who must win an election to retain her seat on the court. In Michigan, the justices run in a nonpartisan general election on Nov. 5, but they are nominated by the political parties at their conventions, which take place in late August. Currently, liberals have a functional 4-3 majority on the Michigan Supreme Court. The Nov. 5 election could expand the liberal majority to 5-2 or flip the court to a 4-3 conservative majority.

Dig deeper:

• Read Christina Grube’s story about Michigan’s Aug. 6 primary results in the Senate race.

• Read Lauren Canterberry’s story about Michigan’s Feb. 26 primary and how many Democrats voted “uncommitted.”

• Listen to Clara York’s story about why many Arab Americans in Michigan voted “uncommitted” in the Michigan primary.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.