The debate over Trump’s refugee cap

When Matthew Soerens heard that the Trump administration was only planning to let a maximum of 7,500 refugees into the United States in 2026, his first thought was to hope it wasn’t true.

“I think that there’s probably some good reporting behind it, but I’m still sort of hoping it’s not accurate,” said Soerens, vice president of advocacy and policy at World Relief. “It isn’t final yet. It hasn’t been published yet. And the president hasn’t consulted with the appropriate congressional committees that he’s required to.”

Soerens hopes the final figure will be higher: “If it ends up at 7,500, that’s a really discouraging number to me.”

Media reports in recent weeks have cited anonymous administration officials saying that the Trump administration plans to reduce the number of refugees allowed to enter the country through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) during fiscal year 2026 to 7,500. That’s the lowest refugee ceiling in the program’s entire history—and a far cry from the 125,000 limit President Joe Biden set for 2025. The U.S. Departments of State and Homeland Security did not confirm whether those media reports were correct, though the White House told WORLD the refugee cap is not final until administration officials meet with congressional leaders regarding the cap. Until the shutdown ends and those talks take place, no refugees will be able to enter the United States at all during the 2026 fiscal year, which began this month.

Immigrant advocates argue the United States has a moral obligation to accept more than just 7,500 refugees—especially individuals who assisted U.S. service members abroad and religious minorities facing persecution. But administration supporters fundamentally disagree: they argue the United States isn’t obligated to help those in need around the world and that the U.S. government needs to work through the massive backlog of immigrant cases already on its plate.

Heritage Foundation senior fellow Simon Hankinson said he understands the logic of a 7,500-refugee cap. “Until you plow through that massive multimillion-person backlog, it seems to make sense to lower the number coming through the USRAP program—because this is the official U.S. refugee admissions program—to lower that down as far as practicable,” he said.

Millions of illegal immigrants, many of whom immigration judges have already ordered to be deported, are currently living in the United States, Hankinson said. Under the Biden administration, hundreds of thousands of other immigrants legally entered the country through humanitarian parole programs. Until the government addresses their cases, it’s unwise to admit more refugees into the country, Hankinson argued.

But Matthew Soerens emphasizes how the USRAP program is separate from the asylum application pipeline and the backlog of illegal immigrant cases.

“The refugee program is a well-established program created by Congress in 1980—in fact, with a vote in the U.S. Senate that was unanimous,” Soerens said. “This was not a controversial, partisan debate. … I’m old enough to remember when almost every member of Congress thought the refugee program was sort of the gold standard for good, legal immigration.”

The program boasts a thorough vetting process, and it allows refugees to obtain work authorizations shortly after they arrive in the United States, Soerens noted.

Research suggests that practice can benefit both newcomers and U.S. interests. After about eight years in the country, refugees who entered the country as adults contribute more to the country economically than they take from it, according to a 2017 study from the University of Notre Dame. Meanwhile, refugees who enter as children become net contributors to the economy much faster. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services also noted that, between 2005 and 2019, the United States made more money off refugees and asylees than it initially spent in getting them resettled in the country.

But the United States and many other Western countries are becoming disenchanted with the idea of taking on all who come knocking on their doors, insisting that they’re fleeing some sort of danger, Hankinson explained. Western governments—and Trump administration officials—are starting to see refugee crises as problems they aren’t responsible for solving, he said.

“The worldwide demand for asylum, for refugee status … just vastly exceeds the capacity of the Western world to provide it,” Hankinson said, adding that many individuals requesting asylum are just looking for better economic opportunities. “There are billions of people who would like to make an asylum claim because that’s the easiest way to stay in a Western country.”

Hankinson said the U.S. refugee system was designed for Jews fleeing Nazis and dissidents on the run from communist governments in the 1940s and ’50s. “It’s just not suited to mass economic migration,” he said. “And I feel like we’re at the point where Western nations are going to have to change their asylum laws if they are going to survive.”

But Soerens argued the United States still needs to take the lead in refugee resettlement, which he said helps persuade other countries to take on refugees, too. It also leads to net benefits in the long term—not all of which are merely monetary, Soerens explained. Many refugee candidates are persecuted religious minorities, including Christians.

“Frankly, I have learned a lot about following Jesus from my Burmese Christian neighbors who were persecuted for their faith in Christ,” Soerens said. “I’ve had Burmese refugees at my door to make sure I know who Jesus is. And I think that’s actually something that the United States could use a little bit more of right now.”

But it isn’t Christians or other religious minorities facing persecution whom the administration is eyeing to fill its 7,500 refugee slots, Soerens noted. Media reports citing anonymous officials have said the administration is prioritizing white Afrikaners from South Africa.

That’s a poor use of those available slots, according to Soerens.

“I don’t want to minimize that some people in South Africa have been victims of really horrible crimes. And that’s true of white Afrikaners. It’s true of black South Africans as well,” Soerens said. “What I don’t think is appropriate is to use the refugee process for that. Because under U.S. law, a refugee is someone who has fled a well-founded fear, not of discrimination, but of persecution … on account of specific reasons.”

Asylum law requires that, to be considered a refugee, an individual claiming asylum must demonstrate fear of persecution based on religion, race, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group.

Heritage’s Simon Hankinson argued that Afrikaners meet those criteria. “The South African government wants to pretend it’s not happening,” he said. “If you actually look at the numbers … even though South Africa has a pretty hideous crime problem and high murder rates all through the country, the rate of murder among farmers, many of whom happen to be white, in rural areas … is just atrocious.”

The refugee program is better suited to bringing in Afghans who assisted U.S. forces deployed to their country, according to AfghanEvac, a group supporting Afghan refugees, many of whom formerly assisted U.S. forces.

“We are aghast at the Trump administration’s reported refugee goal,” AfghanEvac President Shawn VanDiver said in a statement about the refugee cap. “By all accounts, few if any Afghans are included in this cap, despite America’s explicit promises to them. This decision isn’t abstract. It leaves behind real people.”

Soerens and World Relief are urging the Trump administration to raise the refugee ceiling to at least 50,000 admissions, which is where President Donald Trump first set the ceiling in 2017. But they’d like the cap to be even higher.

“When you can be secure in your own economic interest and compassionate and create opportunities for American churches and stand for religious freedom,” Soerens said. “I think it’s a win, win, win. And I don’t understand the push to dramatically undo this program.”