Texas toss-up

At a Mexican restaurant in Allen, Texas, attendees at a Republican campaign rally sip margaritas and wait for their local candidates to make their stump speeches. 1980s rock music blasts over speakers as people pack shoulder-to-shoulder near the stage, filling a little more than half the room. It’s a Monday in mid-October—the first day of early voting in Texas.

“We have 3 million conservative Republicans that don’t show up in midterm elections,” state Rep. Keresa Richardson told attendees from the stage. “You need to find those people and drag their heinies to the polls.”

The star speaker at this rally is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and his race against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for a U.S. Senate seat is one of the most closely watched elections in the country this year. Paxton, 63, has served as attorney general for over 10 years and has President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Talarico, 37, is a former schoolteacher and Presbyterian seminarian who flipped a Republican seat in the Texas House in 2018. He hopes to do the same statewide, something a Democrat hasn’t accomplished since 1994.

Texas is a solidly red state. Yet as Election Day approaches, recent polling suggests the Senate race remains a toss-up, with poll respondents slightly favoring Talarico over Paxton. Although Paxton has won three terms as attorney general, he carries ethical baggage that make him unattractive as a Senate candidate to some conservative voters. Republicans in the state seem worried that objections to Paxton’s character will keep some Texas conservatives from casting a vote at all.

Texans have been inundated with political advertisements this cycle. Combined advertising for the campaigns reached over $500 million, and Elon Musk donated over $150 million to help the Paxton campaign secure a win.

Paxton has a strong conservative record as attorney general. In 2024, his office secured a $1.4 billion settlement with Meta over its unauthorized collection of Texans’ biometric data. Around the same time, he successfully defended the pro-life Human Life Protection Act before the Texas Supreme Court. Paxton also successfully sued the Biden administration to force the removal of an injunction on border wall construction in Texas.

But in 2023, the Texas House of Representatives impeached Paxton for corruption and bribery, accusing the attorney general of using his political status to intervene in a federal fraud investigation of a donor. The state Senate later acquitted Paxton. Then Paxton’s wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in 2025, alleging her husband had committed adultery. Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal published a nearly 2-year-old video of Paxton celebrating New Year’s Eve in Dubai with an indicted U.S. fugitive and a woman who is not his wife.

Still, at the Paxton rally, attendees seemed willing to overlook the attorney general’s missteps. They saw the choice between him and Talarico as straightforward.

“As a Christian, I just believe that, you know, anyone without sin, throw the first stone,” said Miriam Walker. “I thought about the same thing with Trump. I know he came from a shady background morally, but I think morals and what they’re willing to do in office are two different things.”

About 40 miles from Allen in Tarrant County, Melissa, who declined to give her last name, had just cast her vote for Talarico. She said she was unhappy with the amount of negative advertisements she’d seen from both campaigns. (Those include a pro-Paxton ad with the tagline “James Talarico is weird,” and another calling Paxton “dangerously corrupt” and accusing him of offering a child sex offender a “sweetheart deal” of only one day in jail.)

James Talarico speaks to attendees at a rally in Weslaco, Texas. Associated Press / Photo by Michael Gonzalez

Talarico has a homegrown appeal. He often reminds voters he is an eighth-generation Texan and the grandson of a Baptist preacher. He uses the biblical command to love thy neighbor as justification for his progressive social views and hopes to bring into his campaign centrist swing voters who may be turned off by Paxton’s scandals.

That evening, Talarico supporters lined up outside the gymnasium of North Crowley High School in Fort Worth. In line, Talarico supporter Daniel Mitchell wore a shirt that read, “I’m a Talafreako,” a nickname Republicans coined.

“I think all the attacks on him are kind of silly, so I love the chirpy response on the T-shirts,” Mitchell said.

Talarico has painted himself as a middle-class Texan standing up to established money. Todd Smith, former Republican Texas state representative for Tarrant County, endorsed Talarico, saying, “Rep. Talarico and I may understand better than most why it is in Texas that it is often not left versus right, but it is top versus bottom.”

Talarico’s appeal seems to have reached some traditionally Republican voters. Former President George W. Bush’s daughter Barbara and his younger brother Neil have both thrown their support behind Talarico. Neil Bush said that he voted early for Talarico after developing concerns about Paxton’s judgment and conduct as attorney general.

Despite Talarico’s frequent references to Bible verses and Christian themes, he still falls on the wrong side of certain issues important to Christian and conservative voters. In a CNN town hall, Talarico claimed to Jodi Hunt, a Catholic professor at the University of Dallas, that the Bible is “silent on the issue of abortion.”

Talarico also once suggested God was “nonbinary” during a House floor speech arguing against a bill protecting girls’ sports from male participation. (He now claims he supports national protections against gender transition surgeries for minors.)

“Talarico is running a campaign that is focusing on certain issues that seem to be resonating with Texans, which I think is somewhat disingenuous given that his record suggests he is running more moderate than he will actually govern,” said Doug Blair, press manager at Heritage Action, explaining Talarico’s rise in the polls.

Blair blamed the broader political challenges facing Republicans across the country in this midterm year for Paxton’s tough race: “It’s a bad environment for Republicans at the moment.”

“It’s going to come down to every vote by November 3rd,” said Chris Hammons, a professor of political science at Houston Christian University. “People say they love Talarico, but whether or not they’ll actually show up and vote for their preferred candidate, we’ll have to wait and see.”

While speaking to supporters, Paxton likes to cite Talarico’s previous comments to argue he is too radical for Texas. “He calls himself a Christian who hates Christianity. I’ve never heard a Christian say that,” Paxton told Allen rally attendees.

Despite his opponent’s radical soundbites, Paxton has been unable to position himself as a clear front-runner in the Senate race. In September, Trump hosted the first-ever Republican midterm convention in Dallas. During a speech meant to help Paxton, the president said that some people don’t like the way Paxton looks or talks but, “in the history of Texas, he is the single greatest attorney general you’ve ever had.” Later, in audio leaked to The New York Times, Paxton blamed his poor polling numbers on the midterm convention.

Paxton’s Come and Take It tour is stopping all over Texas until election night. The attorney general is still relying on the Trump administration for support. At his Oct. 19 rally in Fort Worth, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stumped for Paxton. And on Tuesday, Trump addressed voters in Lubbock and Corpus Christi, urging Republicans to vote for Paxton.

At the Allen rally, Republican state Rep. Matt Shaheen had a similar message for Texans. “When you guys get out and vote, bring about three dozen people with you,” he told the crowd. “And look, if you run across some conservative that just ain’t into it and all that kind of stuff, say ‘Suck it up, buttercup, and get out and vote.’”