Swing states waffle on new congressional maps

Primaries for the 2022 elections are scheduled to start just four months from now, but almost half of U.S. states still do not know the final boundaries of their congressional districts. That means would-be candidates don’t know for sure which districts they live in or where to campaign.

The U.S. Constitution gives states the responsibility of drawing their congressional districts according to population after every decennial census, which they usually do a year or more before the next election. But the U.S. Census Bureau didn’t release needed population data on time after the 2020 census due to COVID-19 and court delays. Twenty-six states have since finalized their new districts, but nine are now contending with legal battles over their lines. In the remaining 24, the majority party in the state legislature is working to redraw the boundary lines. Often, political parties draw boundaries in their favor, a practice known as gerrymandering.

Democrats are fighting to hold onto and expand their majority in Congress by attacking districts they say were Republican gerrymandered. Democratic attorney Marc Elias of Pennsylvania has filed more than 20 lawsuits challenging either voting laws or proposed maps. He has a track record of delivering party advantages.

The states that have completed redistricting have added a net of seven additional districts that are expected to lean Democratic—based on their demographics and voting histories—and only one more Republican-leaning seat. But in midterm elections, political favor typically swings away from whichever party is in the White House, which bodes well for Republicans. Three states’ individual approaches to redistricting show how much the political process could affect the outcome of the next election.

Florida: In a move surprising members of his own party, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, submitted his own redistricting plan on Sunday, just days before the state Senate planned to vote on its proposed map. The Florida Legislature, currently held by a Republican majority, draws the maps, and the governor has the authority to sign or veto.

Right now, Florida has three competing maps. DeSantis’ would create 17 Republican-leaning seats, eight Democratic-leaning seats, and three competitive ones. The plan has raised criticism from both parties because it halves the number of predominantly black districts and eliminates one that is nearly 50 percent African American. David Wasserman, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, called the proposal “the most brutal gerrymander.” The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that race-based gerrymandering is illegal, but it hasn’t taken a side in the debate over partisan gerrymandering.

Florida’s Senate-proposed map has 14 Republican-leaning seats, eight Democratic-leaning ones, and six competitive districts. It is the closest map to Florida’s current one. Two House-proposed maps are more partisan, leaning the state more Republican as a whole. The Legislature has until June 13 to finalize the new districts. Critics claim DeSantis submitted his proposal to boost his image ahead of a potential presidential run in 2024. The governor’s office cited legal concerns with the previously proposed maps.

Ohio: Republicans in Ohio also have a majority in the state Legislature and control the redistricting process. Lawmakers must pass new maps with three-fifths majority votes in both houses, and Republican Gov. Mike DeWine has veto power. But the cycle ground to a halt last week when the state Supreme Court overturned the congressional districts DeWine approved in November. In a 4-3 decision, the justices ruled the map was gerrymandered and violated a partisan-fairness stipulation in the state constitution. The proposal made 73 percent of districts Republican-leaning while Ohio’s popular vote only favors the GOP by 55 percent, according to Justice Michael Donnelly, who wrote the court opinion. This was the first court action against a redistricting proposal during this 10-year cycle.

The Legislature has 30 days to draw new lines. If it does not agree on new districts and pass them by that time, a bipartisan commission must take over and supply a map within 30 days. If either group fails, or if the Supreme Court rules against the new districts in further litigation, a simple majority vote in each chamber can send a revised map to the governor for approval, but it would only be valid for four years.

Pennsylvania: In the Keystone State, the Democratic governor has not approved the congressional district map submitted by the GOP-controlled General Assembly. The state has two versions of new districts on the table: one that Gov. Tom Wolf proposed on Jan. 15, based on citizen and nonprofit recommendations, and one that the state House passed last month. Wolf’s version would form six Democratic-leaning districts, eight Republican-leaning ones, and three competitive seats.

The House-approved map only provides five Democratic seats and nine GOP-leaning ones, with the same number of competitive positions. So far, the state Supreme Court has declined to enter the fray. But the lower Commonwealth Court fast-tracked a lawsuit led by attorney Elias to require all parties to submit proposals by Jan. 24 if the gridlock persists. The court also agreed to allow a group of mathematicians to present a proposal based on a computer program they have been developing for weeks with the goal of creating the most unbiased map possible. If they miss the deadline, the court will step in to draw the new maps.