Student math scores still recovering from COVID-19

American students are behind their international counterparts in math, according to recent test results.

The National Center for Education Statistics administers the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) to fourth and eighth grade students every four years. About 650,000 students from 65 education systems participated in 2023. Results are measured on a scale from zero to 1,000. Students in Singapore scored on the higher end, averaging over 600. Regions such as South Africa and Kuwait scored low with averages of less than 400.

Across both grade levels measured by the latest TIMSS exam, the United States scored 10 or more points above the international average. Still, U.S. fourth graders scored 18 points lower in math than in 2019. Eighth grade math scores dropped by 27 points.

The U.S. education system now ranks 24 out of 45 countries tested in the world for eighth grade math, down from 16 out of 46 in 2019. Whereas the national average in mathematics once outpaced Great Britain’s, American eighth-graders now rank between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The average score for fourth grade math fell behind that of 12 other countries since 2019.

Other tests have shown similar downward trends. In 2023, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), a test administered every two years by the National Center for Education Statistics, found that average scores for American 13-year-olds declined by 9 points in mathematics compared to the previous assessment. The year before that, the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) found that 15-year-old students scored an average of 7 points below the benchmark of 472 in math, about 13 points lower than during the 2018 PISA exam.

The precipitous decrease in math scores isn’t mirrored in other subjects such as science, in which scores have been declining at the same rate since 2015. Brian Galvin, chief academic officer at the online-based educational support program Varsity Tutors, called math “the ultimate building block subject,” making it especially vulnerable when schools shut down. In spring of 2020 when the pandemic hit, 77 percent of U.S. public schools moved some or all classes online. Most schools returned to in-person instruction in 2021.

In a subject like history, Galvin said, it’s easier for students to catch up because learning about the Civil War doesn’t necessarily depend on an understanding of the French Revolution. Math isn’t so forgiving.

“The analogy I’d use is the old-school Christmas lights. When one bulb is out, the whole strand is out,” Galvin said. Because students have been struggling with so many foundational arithmetic skills, Varsity Tutors has changed the way it assesses student needs. As of the past 18 or so months, the tutoring organization assumes that students are missing two grade levels of arithmetic instruction.

The pandemic didn’t only cause students to miss important building blocks during mandated lockdowns. Many districts are now grappling with teacher shortages and chronic absenteeism, defined as missing at least one-tenth of classes in a year. A January report from the American Enterprise Institute found that the rate of chronic absenteeism increased from 15 percent in 2018 to 28 percent in 2022. The rate went down in 2023 but remained above pre-pandemic levels.

According to study author Nat Malkus, the latest TIMSS exam also shows that America is “uniquely diverging in terms of achievement gaps.” TIMSS data show the score gap in the United States between the highest and lowest achieving fourth grade learners was higher than that of 49 other education systems.

Despite the declining results, some experts say that falling math averages don’t necessarily signal a classroom crisis. Jim Gleason, a professor of math education at the University of Alabama, noted that many TIMSS respondents live in areas with homogeneous populations like Singapore and Hong Kong. Gleason says comparing the education systems is like “comparing the entire United States with Silicon Valley.” He believes the test results demonstrate the diversity of the U.S. educational system.

AEI’s Malkus is concerned about the achievement gap, especially since it has widened over the past decade.

“The spreading of the achievement gap has been going on for some time, and was made, at least in science, worse by the pandemic,” said Malkus.

Malkus argues that addressing pandemic-produced symptoms like chronic absenteeism and teacher shortages might improve average math scores. But fixing the achievement gap doesn’t seem to have a clear solution.

At the beginning of the new year, he expects the results of the latest National Assessment of Educational Progress to confirm his suspicions: “My fear is that even if we don't see the averages declining on NAEP, that we’re likely to see growth in achievement gaps continue.”