Sticker shock

In response to daunting estimates of the cost of President Donald Trump’s signature legislation, the Big Beautiful Bill Act, Republican leaders cast doubt on the accuracy of the numbers. They argue that legislation will spur enough economic growth to cover its price tag in the long run.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) put out a report on Wednesday morning stating that Trump’s legislative package would add almost $2.4 trillion to the U.S. deficit over 10 years. The estimate strengthens the arguments of fiscal conservatives in Congress who may want to include more spending reductions before the bill’s final passage, expected to take place sometime in July.

Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., the GOP conference leader and the No. 2 Republican in the House, said the estimate was way off the mark.

“The reason they say this is that CBO doesn’t believe in economic growth,” Scalise told me. “They’ve always been wrong.”

Scalise argued that the tax cuts included in the bill would promote economic growth that the CBO hasn’t taken into account, unfavorably skewing the package against Republicans by over exaggerating its cost.

Jared Pincin, associate professor of economics at Cedarville University, explained that the CBO uses “static scoring,” which doesn’t factor in behavioral changes brought on by a piece of legislation.

Pincin said he was initially surprised that the CBO’s estimated costs weren’t higher. He recalled seeing estimates that placed the bill’s addition to the deficit somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 trillion. Even the CBO’s preliminary numbers showed a deficit cost of $3.8 trillion just a few weeks ago.

“This is a good first approximation, but they do err,” Pincin said, referring to the CBO. “Are they going to err by $2.4 trillion? I’m not confident that they will either way, but they have had some big misses.”

He recalled that the CBO famously estimated that the Affordable Care Act, known more commonly as Obamacare, was projected to reduce deficit spending. In fact, the opposite came true. He did note, however, that the ACA included more complex, more difficult changes to evaluate than the bill Republicans are considering now.

To other experts like Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, the CBO score is roughly what she expected.

“The Tax Foundation reaches similar conclusions, placing the total deficit increase of the bill at nearly $2.6 trillion over a decade,” York wrote in a statement.

The Tax Foundation also uses “dynamic scoring,” which factors in behavioral changes. York said that even then, she expects the bill to add at least $1.7 trillion to the deficit.

Scalise, the conference leader, remains bullish that the math will favor Republicans in the end. He pointed to the growth assumptions Republicans agreed upon at the outset of the bill’s creation.

“Our most staunch fiscal hawks all agree that 2.5% economic growth would be our baseline, minimum expected growth,” Scalise told me. “A lot of us think it would be higher. President Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, believes it could be over 4% growth. But at a 2.5% growth, you get over $2.5 trillion [in growth]. Again, CBO has always failed to recognize that.”

Republican fiscal conservatives affirmed Scalise’s reasoning.

“We agree with that estimate,” Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., said on Wednesday. Harris chairs the House Freedom Caucus, a group of some of the Hill’s most fiscally conservative lawmakers. Harris voted present on the bill as passed out of the House of Representatives last month.

“I think it’s reasonable for 2.6 [percent growth] to hold up over 10 years,” he added.

While fiscal hawks like Harris agreed with leadership about the growth rate, they might still press for even more spending cuts before the bill comes to a final vote. On Tuesday, Elon Musk, the former head of the Department of Government Efficiency, blasted the Big Beautiful Bill on X as overspending.

“I’m sorry, but I can’t stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disguising abomination,” Musk wrote.

In a barrage of at least 13 other posts, Musk called for Republicans to turn against the bill, at one point urging voters to elect new representatives in the midterm elections. His vocal opposition to the Republican-led bill gives conservatives in Congress like Reps. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and Rand Paul, R-Ky., justification for demanding increased spending cuts.

The bill faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where conservatives have clashed with Republicans like Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., who are wary of cutting government programs like Medicaid.

The Senate’s many committees will evaluate the bill in the coming weeks and are likely to revise the version passed by the House last month. GOP leaders said they want to vote on a final version of the bill by July 4.