Special election loss narrows Republican lead in Congress

A Democrat flipped a Republican congressional seat in New York this week with a campaign that echoed traditional Republican messaging.

Newly elected U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., won a special election on Tuesday night to fill the seat formerly held by Rep. George Santos, whom the House expelled in December. Suozzi won a decisive victory over Republican challenger Mazi Pilip with 53.9 percent of the vote.

“We know that this race was fought amid a closely divided electorate,” Suozzi said in his victory speech. “This race was centered on immigration and the economy, much like the issues across our country. We have to carry the message of this campaign to the United States Congress.”

The election result puts further pressure on U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to manage a tiny Republican lead in the House of Representatives. It also forces Republicans running for Congress to work harder to distinguish their messaging from that of Democrats.

New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which covers part of Long Island, was left vacant last year when Congress voted to expel Santos over allegations that he abused campaign funds, stole his donors’ personal information, and committed other forms of misconduct. At the time, many Republicans celebrated Santos’ removal as a win for the party. Combined with the retirement of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and the resignation of Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, Santos’ departure left Republicans with a weaker hold on power. It takes 217 votes to control the House. With Suozzi’s victory, Republicans now have just 221, or a four-seat majority.

New York Assemblyman Jarett Gandolfo, a Republican and fellow Long Islander, said Suozzi touched on many issues at the forefront of voters’ minds—issues that, typically, have been GOP messaging points.

“Even though inflation has slowed, it hasn’t decreased,” Gandolfo said. “Economic woes are going to continue being an issue at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Long Island is already a high-cost-of-living area.”

And then there’s the immigration issue.

Gandolfo pointed out that in some ways, border concerns are already highly visible in his state. The pending budget for New York, proposed by Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, requests $2.4 billion for immigration support for New York City.

“There was a migrant who shot at a police officer,” Gandolfo said, referencing an attack that took place in Times Square last week. “You had the group of migrants that assaulted the New York police officers. There have been other acts of assault.”

Suozzi emphasized those concerns, going so far as to say that Congress should shut down the U.S. southern border. It’s a noteworthy shift in stance for a New York Democrat running for office, especially as Republicans on Capitol Hill have struggled to find consensus on immigration.

Last week, Johnson withheld support from a newly proposed bipartisan border package, claiming that its provisions didn’t go far enough to secure the border. When asked if that could have hurt Republicans in the election, Rep. Marcus Molinaro, R-N.Y. said he didn’t know, but he believes the election should give Republicans confidence that their messaging is in the right place—despite the loss.

“[The Senate] has a proposal which we think doesn’t satisfy the concerns of border security. We have a proposal that we think does. I’m not elected to do what the Senate expects any more than they’re elected to do what we expect. We ought to be negotiating,” Molinaro said.

Molinaro also stressed the odd nature of the election as perhaps a reason for why Republicans failed to hold on to the seat.

“Special elections suck. Having lost one, I know that,” Molinaro said, noting the two-month timeframe candidates in New York’s 3rd District had to campaign. He also pointed out that Suozzi isn’t a new face for New Yorkers. He had previously represented the district from 2016 to 2022 before dropping to run for governor. He lost to the eventual Democratic nominee, Hochul.

“The voters chose a name they knew, a face they were familiar with, and someone who ran away from what the Democratic agenda has been for the last two years.” Molinaro said “I look forward to Tom reaching across the aisle to work with members like me. I worked with him as a county executive and we’re off to getting more work done.”

Other Republicans echoed similar thoughts.

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., pointed out that Suozzi’s win wasn’t a landslide and took considerable effort in a pair of counties where Biden carried the vote in 2020. On top of that, a snowstorm forced polls to stay closed for seven hours on Tuesday, putting more of an emphasis on early voting. When asked if Republicans should be concerned about holding onto the majority in November, Hudson brushed aside concerns.

“They spend $15 million in a Biden-plus-8 district,” Hudson said, noting the president’s 2020 margin of victory. “If they spend $15 million on Biden-plus-8 districts, they will win. But there are 24 other districts that are more favorable to us being held by Democrats. I feel good about our game plan.”