Russia-Ukraine peace talks reach a milestone

During two days of talks at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, U.S. envoys met in separate rooms with representatives of Russia and Ukraine. After the meetings, during which all journalists were banned from the hotel premises, the White House issued separate statements to the media: One about its agreement with Ukraine and one about its deal with Russia. The two sides of the war are still so far apart that they won’t even appear on the literal same page.

Each side agreed with the United States to end attacks in the Black Sea as long as neither side uses commercial vessels for military actions. They also agreed that a final peace deal is still a long way off.

“These are the first steps—not the very first but initial ones—with this presidential administration toward completely ending the war and the possibility of a full ceasefire, as well as steps toward a sustainable and fair peace agreement,” Zelenskyy said at a news conference on Tuesday.

The Kremlin responded on Tuesday that it will only sign the Black Sea deal if the West lifts sanctions on the state-owned bank Rosselkhozbank.

The White House pointed out that President Donald Trump has made more progress toward ending the war than his predecessor ever did. He also has different expectations. To the Trump administration, peace in Ukraine means something different than it does to Europe, Ukrainians, and even Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Because the president is so interested in getting a deal, he’s willing to talk to the Russians in a way that the previous administration wasn’t,” Daniel Kochis, a senior fellow in the Hudson Institute’s Center on Europe and Eurasia, told WORLD. “Many in Washington are uncomfortable with essentially bringing the Russians back in from the cold and to start negotiations with them. This administration has put those qualms aside in their interest of pursuing a quick ceasefire.”

Since Russian tanks first drove over Ukraine’s borders on Feb. 22, 2022, more than 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. Russia now occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine’s territory. About 4 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, while at least 6.8 million more have fled to other countries. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received roughly $407 billion in aid, according to the Kiel Institute. Around $118 billion has come from the United States. Although NATO troops are not allowed to fight in Ukraine’s defense, as it is not a partner country, NATO powers have sent forces to train Ukrainian soldiers on how to use the defense systems donated to them.

Putin’s demands for ending the war have not changed since a proposal he issued last June: ban Ukraine from joining NATO, allow Russia to keep the territory it has occupied, demilitarize Ukraine, and lift Russian sanctions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he must rely on NATO support and the promise of eventual membership to enforce any peace deal.

The White House announced today that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea’s shipping lanes. Both sides also promised to work on measures to stop strikes on energy facilities. The Kremlin declined to give a readout of the talks in Riyadh, while Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov posted on X that further “technical consultations” are needed.

Zelenskyy keeps asking for “security guarantees,” essentially promises that other countries will retaliate against Russia if it breaks a ceasefire. The Ukrainian president says the only way to keep Russia in check is to threaten it with U.S. military might. Economic deals like Trump has proposed for the energy sector could function as soft security guarantees since Russia is unlikely to attack U.S.-owned assets in Ukraine. But that requires U.S. companies to invest in Ukrainian energy.

“U.S. businesses would be looking at a country devastated by war and still struggling with corruption. Moreover, Ukraine’s mineral wealth is a matter of great speculation, and a sizable portion is located in Russia-occupied territory,” wrote Thomas Graham, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. “These circumstances hardly amount to an attractive investment environment.”

Sumantra Maitra, a senior fellow at the Center for Renewing America, said that Russia knows not to cross lines with the United States, especially with Trump back in the White House. He suggested that the Biden administration’s cozying up to Ukraine pushed Russia to invade in the first place. While he cautioned against being too friendly with Russia, Maitra said Trump is right to pursue talks.

“At the end of the day, you cannot turn Russia into Switzerland,” he said. “I think his core instinct that has been displayed in the last few months is to figure out a way where we can satiate, at least partially, some of Russia’s grievances and figure out an equilibrium.”

According to a Gallup report this month, only 23% of Americans think the United States is supporting Ukraine at the right amount. Roughly 30% believe America is providing too much support. Given that Russia is the nuclear power in the equation, Maitra said a lesser role in the conflict is in the nation’s best interests.

“America shouldn’t risk fighting a nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Someone from Massachusetts shouldn’t die for Mariupol,” he said. “[Trump] understands that Ukraine is not in the direct strategic interest of the United States. If tomorrow Ukraine falls to Russian influence, that doesn’t change anything in the European balance. Ukraine was on the side of Russia throughout the Cold War—we still won it.”

European leaders are still concerned about security guarantees. The United Kingdom and France launched a “coalition of the willing” earlier this month to enforce a four-point plan to partner with Ukraine to end the war, but it relies on keeping Russia in check.

Kochis agreed that any peace deal should include European input, but he said the Trump administration has been moving faster than the European Union—which last week rejected a demand from Putin to halt military assistance to Ukraine.

“Russia will eventually resume their warfare against Ukraine, whether or not President Trump is still in office,” Kochis said. “What is in control of the United States is getting a settlement with the Russians that can ensure that an independent Ukraine can survive and choose their own future.”