Russia and Ukraine brace for Trump’s return to power

In the Russian region of Kursk, Ukrainian soldiers battling Russian forces are also fighting exhaustion and a lack of equipment. Russia, with recently announced support from North Korean forces, has resisted a monthslong Ukrainian offensive.

Some of the Ukrainian soldiers told the BBC via the Telegram messaging app that their new orders are to stay put, waiting for President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Jan. 20.

“The main task facing us is to hold the maximum territory until Trump’s inauguration and the start of negotiations,” one of the soldiers said. “In order to exchange it for something later. No one knows what.”

Over the past four years, President Joe Biden’s foreign policy has included mixed signals on Russia. In 2021, he famously called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “killer,” a remark that enraged Moscow. Yet he also agreed to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty until 2026, a move many criticized as a mistake due to loopholes allowing Russia to continue expanding its forces.

Since then, tensions have worsened due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With Trump’s reelection, experts anticipate a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, prompting strategy reassessment among global leaders, especially Putin, whose response remains uncertain.

Putin initially remained silent on Trump’s victory, while Russian officials seemed cautiously optimistic about a potential reset in U.S.-Russia relations. But on Nov. 8, speaking at a Moscow-based think tank, Putin congratulated Trump on his win, stating, “We will work with any head of state that the American people trust.” While he praised Trump as courageous for his response to a recent assassination attempt, Putin’s tone remained somewhat reserved, expressing only an openness to discussions with Trump.

Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, speculated that if Trump were to withdraw U.S. support for Ukraine, Kyiv could fall within months.

Trump has consistently claimed he could swiftly end the war by negotiating with Putin, although the details of his plan remain undisclosed. For many Ukrainians weary of the daily toll of war, Trump’s pledges to finish the war have brought some cautious hope, said Sergey Rakhuba, president of Mission Eurasia.

“Ukrainians want to have a just peace,” Rakhuba said. “They want Russia to step back at least to the boundaries of 2014, but the best would be 1991 when Ukraine became an independent nation after the Soviet Union collapsed.”

During his campaign, Trump expressed skepticism about U.S. support for Ukraine, describing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman on Earth” for his ability to secure financial aid from the United States and Europe. Trump has also often criticized NATO and, at times, threatened to withdraw the United States from the alliance while urging Europe to increase defense spending and take more responsibility for its own security.

Meanwhile, Biden has also ramped up additional support for Ukraine ahead of Trump’s second term. On Monday, the Defense Department announced an additional $725 million package covering air defense support, anti-tank weapons, and munitions for rocket systems and artillery.

Last month, Biden authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles known as the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Ukrainian forces have already used the missiles.

Former Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, who Trump fired during his first administration, accused Trump of being a Russian asset. Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., also criticized Trump for allegedly being too soft on Russia, praising Putin, and appointing team members with business ties to Russia. Yet, despite Trump’s criticisms of the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict and accusations of “freeloading” by Ukraine and NATO, Trump has never indicated he wants Ukraine to fall.

Trump imposed numerous sanctions on Russia, charged Russian agents operating on U.S. soil, reduced cooperation compared to prior administrations, and supported U.S. oil exports to counter Russia’s energy influence. He allowed U.S. forces to engage with lethality against Syrian forces, including Russian mercenaries, in Syria’s civil war. Trump expelled Russian diplomats and intelligence operatives, and urged NATO allies to do the same, following Moscow’s attempted poisoning of a former intelligence officer in Britain. He also withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, citing Russian violations of the treaty and concerns that remaining in the treaty would give Russia an advantage in nuclear capabilities.

While Putin is open to talks with Trump, he has made it clear that he will not initiate contact; the White House must make the first move. Russia’s foreign ministry insists that “any negotiations with the American side will be conducted exclusively on the condition that Russia’s interests are respected.”

Meanwhile, Putin is expected to intensify existing diplomatic efforts beyond Europe, strengthening alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea. The October BRICS summit of emerging economies, hosted in the southwestern Russian city of Sochi, underscored Russia’s attempts to broaden its support base.

The United States has begun expanding secondary sanctions on entities supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump has suggested escalating these sanctions on countries like China and Turkey to weaken their ties with Russia. Additionally, he plans to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe to reduce its dependency on Russian energy, further straining Russia’s economy.

In turn, Putin would likely focus on bolstering Russia’s domestic economy and expanding trade with countries willing to overlook sanctions. He may also rely on BRICS nations for economic support, mining Bitcoin in BRICS nations and proposing a BRICS-based payment system to facilitate non-dollar transactions.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, anticipates that Putin may hold off on decisive actions in Ukraine until after discussions with Trump. However, she notes that Moscow is determined to take the rest of Ukraine, and given its unwillingness to compromise, neither NATO nor Ukraine are likely to accept Putin’s terms, as they would pose a threat to the rest of Europe. As a result, Putin is likely to continue pressing forward.

Back in Ukraine, Rakhuba says his team is praying for peace, but also taking steps to prepare to assist more affected Ukrainians.

“If Putin moves further [into Ukraine], there will be a lot more work with the displaced and refugees, and so we’re training, equipping our army of volunteers and our teams in our centers,” he said.

With additional reporting from Christina Grube