RFK Jr.’s minor success highlights Biden’s shortcomings

Susan Bates, 73, is a self-described “hardcore” Republican. She adheres to the Virginia Republican Creed and believes only former President Donald Trump has the pragmatism needed to “hit the ground running” on issues like China and immigration.

But for the first time in a long time, she’s thinking about supporting a Democrat for president.

“I love Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—I’d vote for him,” Bates said. “I don’t believe Democrat versus Republican is the issue anymore. We don’t need all the ideas coming from one side … I think [Kennedy] is a transcendent kind of guy.”

Kennedy is the son of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy Sr., who was assassinated in 1968 while campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination. That makes him the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy. His name recognition, as well as President Joe Biden’s poor performance in recent polls, has given life to the presidential campaign of the environmental litigator-turned-politician. While he’s got little chance to beat a sitting president for the party’s nomination, Kennedy has found a surprising amount of early traction among Democrats—and even across party lines.

A sitting president hasn’t lost his party’s support since 1856. But Biden’s age and polling numbers have left some Democrats with a sense of skepticism. According to findings from an Associated Press poll conducted in association with the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, only 47 percent of Democrats believe Biden should run at all in 2024.

Kennedy, by contrast, is polling relatively well for a presidential challenger. In May, Fox News found that 16 percent of registered Democratic voters would pick Kennedy over Biden in a primary election. CNN similarly reported that number at about 20 percent. A poll released by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on June 30 found that of respondents who backed Biden in 2020, 31 percent supported Kennedy’s decision to run.

It’s a stark contrast with past examples of presidential challengers. In 2020, Trump’s leading Republican rival, former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, took home just 3.2 percent of the vote. In 2012, activist Darcy Richardson, running against incumbent President Barack Obama, appeared on primary ballots in just six states, and in three of those failed to garner more than 2 percent of votes.

Matt Brownfield, a political consultant and partner at Murphy Nasica and Associates, believes Kennedy’s gains have more to do with Biden’s sagging support than anything else.

“There’s nothing particularly special about RFK Jr. The larger issue is that Democrats are concerned if Biden can serve effectively another four years in office,” Brownfield said. “If you have [another candidate] with credibility, it’s going to remind Democrats they have an alternative.”

If California Gov. Gavin Newsom, for instance, entered the race, Brownfield said he would expect Kennedy’s support to evaporate.

Daron Shaw, a professor of elections for the University of Texas, says part of Kennedy’s support comes from sharing a last name with one of America’s most prominent political families. But it also comes from his messaging.

“Kennedy has name recognition, which obviously helps,” Shaw said. “But … he has a clear populist message that resonates with many voters. He bemoans the destruction of the middle class and specifically targets Big Pharma.”

Kennedy spent much of his professional career as an environmental litigator, suing coal companies for the air and water damage caused by their fumes. Now, as a Democratic candidate, he has voiced support for many traditional party positions: legal abortion in the first trimester, affirmative action as a practice, and bans on semi-automatic rifles.

He’s also known primarily for his opposition to industry-wide vaccination standards that have been in use for decades. Vaccines often carry small doses of mercury as an adjunctive—a way to heighten the body’s immune response to a virus by pairing it with something toxic. Kennedy contends that the additive has led to a rise in adverse effects; principally, autism.

He has also championed theories that the CIA played a part in the assassinations of his uncle and father.

Beliefs like those have led some to dismiss Kennedy as a conspiracy theorist. But for others, his skepticism has had the opposite effect.

Bates, who nearly lost her financial stability in the 2008 housing crisis, was in China as a missionary during the 2012 presidential election. She remembers taking a 12-hour train ride to the American Embassy in Beijing to vote for Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

But during the journey, she caught wind that he supported deregulating the financial industry. Her sense of distrust spiked. “This guy is clueless,” she said, “I don’t vote unless I really like someone.” It was a depressing ride home.

Kennedy’s criticism of the CIA, corporate interests, and establishment science appeals to Bates.

In the same way that Trump could act as a direct counter to China, Bates believes Kennedy is the most qualified White House contender to take on entrenched private interests that have coiled themselves around government—something she calls the “deep state.”

It’s what he’s promised to do.

“My mission will be to end the corrupt merger of state and corporate power that is threatening now to impose a new corporate feudalism on our country,” Kennedy told audiences at his campaign announcement in April.

Shaw says Kennedy’s message resonates with Americans disenfranchised by rising costs of healthcare, the country’s handling of the pandemic, bureaucratic processes, and more—on both sides of the aisle.

“Whether it is couched in dubious conspiracy theories or not, the core message of grievance is powerful,” Shaw said.