Politicking in the Palmetto State

Most Republican presidential candidates are busy canvassing Iowa and New Hampshire ahead of the states’ early primaries and caucuses. But former President Donald Trump held a rally with 50,000 supporters on July 1 in Pickens, S.C., a rural town most visitors pass through on their way to the state’s western waterfalls and parks.

Trump also kicked off his 2024 campaign in the South Carolina Statehouse in February. The first-in-the-South primary might be the key to his success if he hopes to make it to the general election.

“In 2024, Iowa and New Hampshire just aren’t going to matter,” longtime South Carolina political strategist Tyler Jones said. “Trump could win Iowa and New Hampshire. It won’t matter unless he solidifies it in South Carolina. You could have two different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it won’t matter unless they can win South Carolina. It’s common sense that if Donald Trump can sweep the first three, it’s over. If somebody beats Donald Trump in South Carolina, it’s a whole new ballgame.”

Jones has worked on three Democratic presidential campaigns and has advised on countless Democratic policies. His party has sat on the sidelines in South Carolina for 21 years of Republican trifectas in the state legislature and governor’s mansion.

“The Republicans here have been either smart or lucky,” Jones said. “They haven’t nominated a lot of the kind of super right-wing extremists in other states that tend to make these general elections more winnable, like in Georgia and Pennsylvania last year.”

Two GOP White House hopefuls this year hail from South Carolina: former Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott. Presidential candidates usually expect to win in their homes states so they campaign less there. But with Haley and Scott vying for home-state advantage, conventional wisdom might not apply.

Former state Sen. Tom Davis said he expects Haley to have a strong showing in her home state and in the general election. He worked with her in the Statehouse during her governorship and said Haley has the best and most moral leadership record of the GOP candidates. Scott last month released a list of 140 state politicians endorsing his campaign, but Davis said that number was lower than normal for a local candidate during an election season.

U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. But this year he’s switched his support to Haley, who he also served with in the South Carolina Statehouse in 2005. He’s the only member of Congress to release an official endorsement for Haley, a move that he says has received pushback from constituents and peers. But Norman, also a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said Haley has the best record to achieve Republican priorities from the Oval Office.

“Age has been a problem as we’ve seen in carrying out the duties of the highest office in the land,” Norman told me. “You need somebody that will carry out [Trump’s] policies, but we’ve got to win first. Nikki Haley brings out young people, independents, the female vote, she touches all the bases. She’s an underdog now, but she’s pulled ahead before.”

Per state law, New Hampshire must be the first primary in the nation. Iowa’s caucuses follow immediately on Jan. 24, and Nevada has scheduled its primary for Feb. 6. By moving South Carolina’s primary a little later than normal to Feb. 24, state GOP chair Dave McKissick is giving the Republican field extra time to campaign in the Palmetto State, and extra time to pour in campaign funding. Whoever wins the state will have a boost going into Super Tuesday, just 10 days later.

“It’s drawing even more attention to South Carolina as a result because the story is which of the two is going to do better? Or is anyone else still going to come out on top in South Carolina? Anything that brings about growth, new people who will show up at meetings and see candidates and raise money for the state party, we’re all about it.”

Former President Donald Trump is certainly bringing in crowds. At his rally in Pickens, local law enforcement estimated roughly 50,000 people amassed in the small town, many coming from other states.

According to Jones, the South Carolina primary leans strongly toward Trump. In his 20 years of campaigning for Democrats in the state, he said he has never seen home state candidates start in single digit polling and make it through to win.

“If this were 2012, I think Nikki Haley would be a fantastic candidate. If this were 2008, I think Tim Scott would be a fantastic candidate. But that Republican party doesn’t exist anymore,” Jones told WORLD. “Unless something gargantuan happens to shake this race up, a la Trump goes to prison, has a health issue. I don’t see how anything changes here.”