Once a presidential bellwether, Florida is now reliably red

Editor's note: This report was updated Nov. 2.

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: Party affiliation in the Sunshine State has changed dramatically over the past few years. The state served as a bellwether in presidential elections for decades. Recently released Florida Division of Elections figures show the Republican Party has over 1 million more registered voters than the Democratic Party, which accounts for 4.4 million Florida voters. Between 2020 and 2021, an average of 667 more people moved into Florida every day than left the state, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and some political analysts attribute the state’s dramatic rightward shift to these demographic changes. One in five of Florida’s eligible voters is Latino, and Republicans have fared better than Democrats among this demographic in recent elections, especially in Miami-Dade County. Still, more than 3.5 million voters are not affiliated with a party. Roughly 404,000 voters identify with minor parties.

Voting: Floridians do not need an excuse to request mail-in ballots and can do so up until 12 days before Election Day. But requests for mail-in ballots plummeted more than 50 percent after Gov. Ron DeSantis signed legislation that would cancel all standing mail-in ballot requests after the 2022 elections. In 2022, roughly 4.3 million voters requested to vote by mail. As of June, only 2 million voters have requested the option for this year’s election. Previously, voters renewed requests for absentee ballots every two election cycles. Under the new law, requests expire after each general election at the end of that December. Some voters are unaware their requests have expired, and state election supervisors are working to alert voters before they miss the application window. Both parties have relied heavily on mail-in ballots to achieve nail-biting victories during Florida’s years as a battleground state. Today, more Democrats than Republicans cast mail-in ballots. 

On Oct. 3, DeSantis signed an executive order granting more flexibility to election officials in the 13 counties most affected by Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, but a federal judge denied a request to reopen voter registration in light of the hurricanes. The deadline to register to vote in Florida was Oct. 7.

PRESIDENTIAL

Florida gained another Electoral College vote after the 2020 census and will have a total of 30 in the 2024 presidential election, making it the state with the third most electors in the country. Florida switched from voting almost solely Democratic in presidential elections to primarily Republican in the mid-20th century, but around turn of the century the state assumed battleground status. Democratic candidates won the state in 1996, 2008, and 2012. Former President Donald Trump took it during the past two elections.

In March, Trump captured more than 80 percent of Republican votes in the state’s presidential primary. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had dropped out of the race about two months earlier, took third place in his home state behind Nikki Haley, who received about 14 percent. The state did not hold a Democratic primary because the Florida Democratic Party only submitted President Joe Biden’s name for the ballot and state law does not permit uncontested races to appear on the ballot. At the Democratic National Convention, 243 delegates voted for Vice President Kamala Harris as the party nominee, while four voted present.

SENATE

• ​​Incumbent Sen. Rick Scott, 71, received 84 percent of the vote in the state’s primary on Aug. 20. Scott significantly outspent his two Republican challengers, who struggled to gain name recognition. Scott served two terms as Florida’s governor from 2011 to 2019 and focused on cutting taxes and business regulations. In the Senate, he chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee and once said he supports a federal law protecting babies from abortion from 20 weeks of gestation on, though he softened his position earlier this year, arguing states should retain the freedom to create their own laws. In 2022, Scott put forward several legislative proposals, collectively known as his “plan to rescue America,” which included 12-year term limits for all federal elected officials and employees and a provision to “sunset” most federal legislation after five years. He announced a failed bid for Senate GOP leader in 2022 following the midterm elections. Scott is the wealthiest senator in office and as of July 31 had spent or loaned nearly $14 million of his own money to the campaign. Scott is also running to succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., as the top-ranking Senate Republican.

• U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 53, Scott’s Democratic challenger, is gaining ground in the polls. Mucarsel-Powell, who was the first Ecuadorian-American elected to Congress and the second Latino woman, only served one term before losing her seat to Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez in 2020. A July poll by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida showed Scott only 4 points ahead of the former congresswoman. In April, Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 17 points, when she was relatively unknown. But Mucarsel-Powell has connected with Floridians by promising to reduce the high cost of living and lower prescription prices. She has also focused on abortion rights and criticized Florida’s protections for unborn babies starting at six weeks of pregnancy. Still, Scott has retained his lead. Aggregate October polling finds Scott roughly four points ahead of Mucarsel-Powell.

U.S. HOUSE

Florida has 28 seats in Congress. Republicans hold 20 of those districts and are expected to retain those seats, while Democrats will likely hang onto their eight. All 27 incumbents won their primaries on Aug. 20.

Races to watch:

• In District 9, voters chose Republican candidate Thomas Chalifoux, 76, a former school board member, in a bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Darren Soto, 46, in Osceola County. The battleground district is the only one that the National Republican Congressional Committee targeted in Florida this election. Republicans are unlikely to gain the seat unless Democratic voter turnout falls in November.

• In District 13, which includes Pinellas County along Florida’s Gulf Coast, Democrat Whitney Fox, 36, defeated four other democratic contenders in Tuesday’s primary. Fox, who worked as communications director for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, is seeking to unseat Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, 35, a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

• In District 27, a majority Hispanic district, Democratic candidate Lucia Baez-Geller, 41, will take on incumbent Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. Salazar, 62, co-sponsored the bipartisan Dignity Act, which she said is “based on the Biblical principles of dignity and redemption” in a statement about the act. The proposed legislation boosts border security and provides a pathway for illegal immigrants to make their status legal if they pay restitution.

JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

Voters will decide whether two of DeSantis’ newly-appointed justices, Meredith Sasso, 41, and Renatha Francis, 46, will serve out the remainder of their term on Florida’s highest court. The yes-no merit retention election takes place one year into a justice’s six-year term. Judicial elections are nonpartisan. A justice has yet to lose a retention election in Florida.

BALLOT MEASURES

• The Florida Legislature sent constitutional Amendment 1 to the ballot, which would require school board candidates to declare their party affiliation in the 2026 elections and establish primaries. A previous amendment did away with party labels in 1998.

• Amendment 2 would create a constitutional right to hunt and fish and declare these activities as the “preferred means for responsibly managing and controlling fish and wildlife.”

• Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana. Under the initiative, Floridians 21 and older could possess up to three ounces of marijuana and five grams in the form of concentrate. The state permitted medical marijuana in 2016.

• Amendment 4 would establish a right to abortion until the baby is able to survive outside of the womb or when “necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”

• In Florida, property taxes are determined through an assessment of a home’s market value minus a homestead exemption, which reduces the property’s taxable value. If approved, Amendment 5 would adjust the exemption according to the annual rate of inflation.

• Amendment 6 would repeal a constitutional provision that provides public financing to candidates who agree to campaign spending limits. Currently, candidates running for governor, attorney general, chief financial officer, and commissioner of agriculture are eligible for public financing.

Dig deeper:

• Read my report on the local groups pushing back against measures to legalize marijuana.
• Read my report on the anti-trafficking immigration measure Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law last year.

• Carolina Lumetta talked with evangelical voters who voted for DeSantis during the Iowa caucuses.

• Read Carolina Lumetta’s analysis of DeSantis’ debate with California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.