Montanans to vote on abortion, high-stakes Senate seat

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: As of Oct. 20, more than 784,000 Montana residents were registered to vote. Of that number, about 135,000—roughly 17 percent—were considered inactive. Voters in the state do not disclose party affiliation when they register. Instead, they choose which party’s ballot they will fill out during the state’s primaries.
According to 2020 data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Montana’s population is just over 1 million residents. An Edison Research for the National Election Pool cited by The New York Times in 2020 surveyed more than 1,100 voters and found that 37 percent of respondents described themselves as Republican, while 22 percent said they were Democrats. But the largest bloc, 44 percent, claimed to be independent or something else.

Voting: Just over 41 percent of registered voters turned out to the polls in the 2024 statewide primary, according to data from the Montana Secretary of State’s office.

Mail-in registrations must have been postmarked by Oct. 7, but voters can register in-person at an election office on Election Day itself.

Registered voters can look up poll locations and view a customized sample ballot by entering their names and dates of birth into a portal on the Montana Secretary of State website. Any voter can apply for an absentee ballot for any reason as long as the county election office receives the application by noon the day before the election. Voters who drop off an application will be permitted to pick up an absentee ballot at the same time. Absentee ballots must be returned to the office by mail or in person by 8 p.m. on Election Day. About 75 percent of the state’s vote is done through absentee ballots, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

Voters must present valid ID in order to vote. Typically, this includes a driver’s license, state identification card, military ID, tribal photo ID, U.S. passport, concealed carry permit, or school ID. Acceptable forms of ID that do not contain a photo include a utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, confirmation of voter registration, and some other government documents.

PRESIDENTIAL

Montana has four Electoral College votes. It has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1992, when Bill Clinton won the state.
Roughly 94,000 voters cast their ballots for President Joe Biden in the state’s Democratic primary on June 4, while about 165,000 voted for former President Donald Trump in the state’s Republican primary. Both candidates won their respective primaries in the state, with 9 percent of voters in both races voting “no preference.” All 24 of the state’s Democratic delegates previously pledged to Biden voted to support Vice President Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention.

In the 2020 presidential election, Trump garnered roughly 344,000 votes to Biden’s roughly 245,000.

A poll Emerson College published on Oct. 26 shows Trump and Harris in a neck-and-neck race, tied at 49 percent each.

U.S. SENATE

The election in Montana could decide which party will control the U.S. Senate, which Democrats currently hold with a 51-seat majority. A poll Emerson College published on Oct. 27 shows Republican challenger Tim Sheehy with a 4 percentage point lead over Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester among likely voters.

• Tester, 68, has served in the Senate since 2006. Tester characterizes himself as a third-generation Montana dirt farmer committed to protecting outsiders from “changing our way of life” by buying up land in the state and driving up the cost of living. Tester has also advocated for abortion. He is a vocal critic of the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, and he supports the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have codified a right to abortion in federal law. On matters of sexuality, he has supported a legal definition of marriage that includes same sex couples. He was an original co-sponsor of the Equality Act, which would have amended the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to include those who identify as LGBTQ as a protected class in anti-discrimination law. On immigration issues, he says he’s fought for tighter border security, collaborating with former Trump to secure the southern border and calling on President Biden to do more to crack down on illegal immigration. He says he supported a failed bipartisan border security bill earlier this year.

• Sheehy, 38, casts himself as a Trump-endorsed conservative outsider and spotlights his years of service as a U.S. Navy SEAL and aerial firefighter. He describes himself as proudly pro-life and accuses Tester of supporting a right to an abortion all the way up until birth. At the same time, Sheehy says he strongly supports in vitro fertilization as a means of conception. He running on a platform that emphasizes cutting government spending, preserving strong Second Amendment gun rights for individuals, and protecting public lands in Montana. He accuses Tester of talking tough on border security but doing little to improve it. Instead, he says he supports finishing the wall at the southern border.

U.S. HOUSE 

Montana has two House seats. Unlike most states, its seats are denoted by region and not number. Republican incumbents are favored to win in both.

• In the Western District, incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke faces off against Democratic challenger Monica Tranel. Like Sheehy, Zinke also touts his 23 years of service as a U.S. Navy SEAL who went on to serve in both state and federal politics. He favors lower taxes, securing the border and fostering U.S. energy independence. His website did not list pro-life or marriage protections as critical issues for his campaign. Tranel competed twice in the Olympics and won a World Championship gold medal for the U.S. Women’s Rowing Team. She went on to attend law school and become an attorney. She is a strong supporter of abortion, calling the Supreme Court’s ruling to reverse Roe v. Wade extreme and pledging that she will “never let the government interfere” with what she characterizes as personal issues. She is also a vocal supporter of IVF.

• Republican Troy Downing and Democrat John Driscoll are vying for the U.S. House seat representing Montana’s Eastern District. Downing currently serves as state auditor. He is a former entrepreneur who enlisted into the U.S. Air Force after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. Downing describes himself as “pro-Trump, pro-gun, pro-wall, and pro-America.” Driscoll doesn’t appear to have an active campaign website. In The Billings Gazette, Driscoll pledged never to support the use of nuclear weapons in a first strike by the United States against another country without a congressional declaration of war. In response to a questionnaire issued from the Montana Free Press, said the United States should pull back its support for Israel until the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which Driscoll describes as right-wing, is out of power. He supports America’s ongoing assistance to Ukraine. He also supports a federal statute codifying a right to abortion.

GUBERNATORIAL 

Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte is wrapping up his first term in office. Democrat Ryan Busse is his challenger. Gianforte and Busse faced off in a debate earlier this month.

• Gianforte has made jobs and the economy the key issue of his campaign. He plans to make the state more business-friendly with tax cuts and improvements to infrastructure. Property taxes in Montana are high, which Gianforte blames on local governments. In 2017, he apologized to a reporter after he was charged with misdemeanor assault for body-slamming him after he asked a question about healthcare legislation.

• Busse is the former executive of a firearms company who recently authored a book about how he believes the gun industry has been radicalized. He’s running a pro-abortion campaign, with his website describing him as “an unapologetic defender of the freedom of healthcare and reproductive choice.” He supports efforts that would enshrine a right to an abortion in the state constitution. He accuses Republican Party leaders of trying to undermine democracy and replace it with authoritarianism. On the economy, he vows to grow organized labor in the state and supports increasing taxes on what he describes as “the corporations and the wealthy.”

SECRETARY OF STATE

The two leading candidates in the race for secretary of state are Republican incumbent Christi Jacobsen and Democratic challenger Jesse Mullen. John Lamb, a Libertarian, is the third candidate.

• Jacobsen took office as Montana’s 22nd secretary of state in January 2021. During her term, she says, she’s cut fees and regulations, resulting in a record number of new and existing businesses. She calls herself an advocate for commonsense voter identification requirements and says she’s piloting programs to improve voter roll accuracy, according to reporting by the Montana Free Press. Specifically, she championed four election-related state voter laws passed in 2021 by the State Legislature but struck down by the state Supreme Court. Those laws tightened restrictions on the voting age, eliminated Election Day registration, banned the use of paid ballot collectors, and prohibited the use of university ID as a valid identification at polling places.

• Mullen is the founder of the Mullen Newspaper Company, which owns 21 newspapers in six states. Hecriticizes Jacobsen’s election integrity efforts as corrupt, arguing they’re unnecessary and constitute a veiled attempt to disenfranchise voters by sowing doubt in elections. He says he will continue to uphold the election laws already on the books while clearing obstacles for eligible voters in the state to access the polls.

BALLOT MEASURES

Montana voters must decide on three ballot measures on Nov. 5. Two of them are designed to make changes to the way elections are held, while the other would codify a right to abortion into the state constitution. All three of them were sponsored by citizens who submitted petitions with the required number of signatures.

• Constitutional Initiative 126 would make Montana’s June primary elections fully open as opposed to party-centric. Voters would vote for whichever candidates they wish, rather than by party.

• Constitutional Initiative 127 would require candidates to receive at least 50 percent of the vote in the November general election to be declared a winner. Currently, whoever receives the most votes wins.

• Constitutional Initiative 128 would amend the state constitution to include a right to abortion, as well as protections for infringements of that right, unless the state determines those infringements are justified by a compelling government interest and represent the least restrictive means of achieving that interest. A 1999 Montana Supreme Court ruling establishes what the court characterizes as a right to privacy that grants a constitutional right to an abortion up until the point a baby can live outside the womb.

Dig deeper:

• Read Christina Grube’s report about a ruling by the Montana Supreme Court overturning parental consent requirements for abortions.
• Read Christina’s report about Montana joining several states in requiring pornography websites to implement age verification measures for their users.
• Read Carolina Lumetta’s report about the high-stakes U.S. Senate race in Montana this year.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.