Minnesota leans Democratic with governor on the ticket

Editor's note: This report was updated Nov. 2.

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: As of Oct. 1, Minnesota had over 3.6 million registered voters. While the state does not report party affiliation, the North Star State has selected Democratic candidates for over 90 years, with former President Richard Nixon making a notable exception in 1972.

Voting: For voters who registered at least 21 days before Election Day and have not changed their name or place of residence, no identification is necessary to vote. All residents with state-issued ID are automatically registered to vote.

Minnesota has several provisions for voters with special circumstances. Absentee ballots are available, as long as voters turn them in by Election Day either in person or by mail. Thanks to a 2023 statute, voters with safety concerns, such as victims of sexual or domestic violence, may be assigned a P.O. box for their address through the Safe at Home address confidentiality program.

On May 17, Gov. Tim Walz signed the Minnesota Voting Rights Act. The law allows minority voters to file lawsuits challenging voting policies like prison gerrymandering, a census practice that counts an incarcerated person’s address as their place of residence. The bill also outlines penalties for making election deepfakes.

PRESIDENTIAL

When President Joe Biden, 81, was the Democratic nominee, it wasn’t certain that Minnesota would vote blue. During the presidential primaries held on March 5, former President Donald Trump, 78, received nearly 69 percent of his party’s support. While Biden outpaced him in percentage points in his party, Trump earned around 61,000 more votes. But in 2020, Joe Biden won the state’s general election by 7 percent. In July, the day Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, a New York Times poll showed that he had only 3 percent more support than Trump in Minnesota.

Given that vice presidential hopeful Tim Walz is Minnesota’s current governor, the Democratic party could sweep the state by a wider margin. An October New York Times poll found the Harris-Walz ticket ahead of the Trump campaign in Minnesota by 6 percent.

GUBERNATORIAL

If Gov. Tim Walz becomes the vice president for a Harris administration, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan will fill his shoes. Flanagan would complete the rest of Walz’s four-year term which ends in January 2027. Minnesota governors may run for office for an unlimited number of times, so Flanagan could run again. In the event of a Harris administration, Minnesota’s state Senate president would replace Flanagan as lieutenant governor.

The person who would then serve as president of the state Senate will depend largely on which party’s candidate wins a majority in November.

SENATE

• One of Minnesota’s two U.S. Senate seats is up for grabs. The incumbent, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, 64, won the Aug. 13 primary with 94 percent of the vote. She has sponsored several bills during her tenure, including the “Protecting Seniors from Emergency Scams Act” which requires the Federal Trade Commission to monitor scams that target elderly adults. According to a FiveThirtyEight poll in late September, 46 percent of voters in the state prefer Klobuchar.

• Former NBA player Royce White, 33, won 38 percent of his party’s vote during the Republican primary, but the support likely won’t be enough to beat Klobuchar’s winning streak and name recognition in the state. According to his campaign website, White supports greater border defense, term limits for members of Congress, and protections for the unborn since he believes that “life starts at conception.” A few months after being drafted by the Houston Rockets in 2012, White left the NBA due to his concerns about the NBA’s lack of a mental health policy. In 2022, he attempted to challenge Rep. Ilhan Omar’s 5th District House seat but lost during the Republican primary. He now plays in the Big3: 3-on-3 basketball league.

U.S. HOUSE

Minnesota’s eight U.S. House seats are currently evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats.

• The most watched contest will be the race for the mostly urban 5th District which includes the state’s capital. It’s currently held by progressive “Squad” member Rep. Ilhan Omar, 41, who has served in Congress since 2019. Squad members Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri recently lost their state’s primaries, partly due to their loud opposition to Israel. While Omar has drawn fire for her repeated calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, she raised nearly $7 million by this past July which might have helped her campaign stay afloat. In addition to her support for Palestine, Omar has built a platform that focuses on “environmental justice,” expanded healthcare access, and better conditions for migrants and refugees living in the United States. In September, Omar introduced the Long Covid Moonshot Act that would provide the National Institutes of Health with $1 billion in funding annually for 10 years to research the illness. With almost 68,000 votes in the primary, Omar will likely keep the 5th District seat. For the GOP, Dalia al-Aqidi, 56, ran uncontested in the primary but only received a little over 3,000 votes.

• In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, 52, is looking for a fourth term and won the primary with 91 percent of the votes. Craig recently introduced the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, a bill that would ensure year-round access to E15 gasoline for consumers. Craig’s challenger Joe Teirab, 37, a former Marine Corps member and federal prosecutor, has raised $1.5 million in funding. His endorsement from House Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump may have helped him win nearly 17,000 votes in the primary. Thanks to a 2022 redistricting, the 2nd District is the state’s primary swing district.

• The solidly red 7th District is currently held by Trump-endorsed Republican Michelle Fischbach, 58. She has raised over $1.5 million and is poised to be a shoo-in for reelection, according to recent polling. Fischbach, whose platform focuses on issues such as protecting the unborn and upholding Second Amendment rights, raked in 64 percent of her party’s vote in the primary. AJ Peters, 76, her sole Democratic competitor, has touted simplified farming regulations and “mental health care for seniors” on his campaign website.

JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

While Minnesota hosts nonpartisan judicial elections, six of the state’s seven current Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic governors. Walz-appointee Associate Justice Theodora Gaitas was sworn in on Sept. 16, but her spot won’t be up for grabs until 2026. November’s election could shake up the unofficial partisan balance of the bench, but it’s unlikely that the court will swing red anytime soon.

• In November, three justices—all Democratic appointees—will run for reelection including Chief Justice Natalie Hudson, 67, who Walz appointed to chief justice in 2023. Hudson will face off against Stephen Emery, 62, who describes himself as a “conservative” candidate who believes in decentralized government.

• Most recently, the court upheld a 2023 law that guaranteed voting rights for convicted felons who had served their prison sentence. Thanks to that ruling, some additional 55,000 Minnesotans will be eligible to vote in November.

BALLOT MEASURES

The Minnesota legislature can propose constitutional amendments for consideration on general election ballots. Those referred initiatives do not require the governor’s signature.

• Minnesotans will vote on an amendment to re-authorize allocating 7 percent of the state’s lottery revenue to the Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund for the next 25 years.

Dig deeper:

• Read Carolina Lumetta’s report on why Vice President Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate.

• Read Christina Grube’s coverage of Harris’ visit to a Minnesota Planned Parenthood facility.

• Listen to Myrna Brown and Mary Reichard explain Minnesota’s so-called “trans refuge” law.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.