Margins and majorities

The Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives—already the smallest in U.S. history with just four more seats than the minority—looks like it will remain in place following Tuesday’s general elections. But by the time results are finalized and lawmakers take their oaths of office next January, it might be smaller still.

To Jim Curry, professor of political science at the University of Utah, that’s an almost comically improbable feat.

“It’s not out of the question that they will have a one-seat majority,” Curry said. “Which is crazy. We’re not talking about a comfortable situation for anyone, whether it’s one, two, three, four, or even five [seat majority].”

Nine tossup seats remain uncalled—all but two of them are just three percentage points apart. Five of them, located in California, could remain uncalled until early December.

Retaking the House would undeniably be a win for the GOP, consolidating Republican control across Congress and the White House. But the slim margin of power would almost certainly extend the nightmare House Republican leaders have grappled with during much of the 118th Congress. More than that, a consolidated Republican government may only make those problems more visible, presenting new vulnerabilities for embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

His job is on the line—and could come into question as early as next week.

But as lawmakers wait to hear the final party tallies, the numbers favor the GOP. By the end of election night, President-elect Donald Trump seemed optimistic.

“It looks like we’ll be keeping control of the House of Representatives. And I want to thank Mike Johnson. I think he’s doing a terrific job—a terrific job,” Trump said during his victory speech.

That brief mention of Johnson, made just once in the first five minutes of the speech, caught Joe Postell’s ear. Postell teaches political science at Hillsdale College and has studied the power of the speakership as a political institution.

“[It’s] a quasi-endorsement,” Postell said of Trump’s statement. “Maybe that’s reading too much in the tea leaves, but it seemed like Trump wanted to at least lend some support to Johnson because he wants him to serve as the next speaker. And he knows that’s going to be a tough fight in January, potentially.”

The most conservative flank of the House GOP believes Johnson has fallen short of adequately pursuing long-standing Republican policy aims; among them—securing the border, limiting spending, and tapering U.S. commitments to military engagements overseas. A handful of Republicans, led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., already tried to strip Johnson of his job once, back in May.

Johnson, for his part, has argued that when Republicans control just one chamber, he would only pursue realistic goals.

“I know there are critics of the legislation,” Johnson said about a foreign-aid supplemental package passed in April. “I understand that it is not a perfect piece of legislation. We’re not ensured that in a time of divided government.”

That refrain—and others like it—were all too familiar for Johnson’s critics.

And at first glance, it might seem the election has made Johnson’s job easier. In January, the main hurdle for conservative legislation will now be in a Republican-controlled Senate where it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster. Republicans now have 53 seats in that chamber. Doesn’t that take the heat off Johnson?

“To a degree, yes—until reality hits,” University of Utah’s Curry said. “If Senate Republicans want to do something on spending or on immigration, they’re going to have to work with Democrats in the Senate. They’re going to then have to send that bill back to the House. And Johnson’s choice now becomes the same: can you convince the right flank of your party that this is the best deal you can get?”

Curry noted that this exact problem hovered over former Speaker Paul Ryan during Trump’s first term as president back in 2017—when Republicans also controlled Congress and the White House.

This time around, Postell, the professor from Hillsdale College, thinks Trump will be more involved in narrowing the expectations of his own party.

“I think he has started to learn about how the political system works and that presidents need to be involved in brokering deals in Congress, especially when you’ve got the majority in your party in both chambers,” Postell said.

For now, Republicans are set to vote internally on their leadership next week. The internal vote, which happens behind closed doors, won’t change the picture immediately—even if the conference decides it’s time for Johnson to step down. Instead, next week’s internal deliberations will set the party’s trajectory for the chamber’s official vote in January.

Prospective freshman congressman Gabe Evans might participate in next week’s vote.

His race for Colorado’s 8th Congressional District still hasn’t been called with 90% of the vote in. He is neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo. If he wins, he could flip one more seat towards Republicans, giving Johnson just a tiny bit more wiggle room next year.

I asked Evans if the internal leadership picture and the inter-party conflict posed a daunting prospect to him as he prepares for a potential role in the 119th Congress.

“To me that’s self-evident of how the Republican Party is actually the party of permitting and prompting individual thought, freedom of speech, freedom to create and craft your own ideas,” Evans said. “We’re not a monolithic voting bloc.”

And what about Johnson?

“I’m proud of the work Speaker Johnson has been able to do given that very, very small majority,” Evans said. “I look forward to growing the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.”