Making like MAGA in South Korea

Earlier this week, about 8,500 South Koreans took to the streets near the presidential residence in Seoul. Many of the protesters called for President Yoon Suk Yeol’s arrest on insurrection charges after he briefly imposed martial law on Dec. 3. Yoon already faces an impeachment trial and suspension of his duties.

Other demonstrators came to support Yoon, who belongs to the conservative People Power Party. They waved South Korean and American flags and held up signs that read, in English, “Stop the steal,” a slogan popularized in the United States in 2020 amid accusations of fraud in the presidential election. Pro-Yoon demonstrators hope President-elect Donald Trump, who returns to office on Jan. 20, will help Yoon.

Yoon’s approval rating fell to a record-low 11% after his martial law declaration, according to a poll released on Dec. 13. But support for the conservative president has risen in some recent surveys, including one released on Sunday that showed a 34.3% approval rating, an increase likely fueled by conservative voters.

The South Korean leader’s lawyers asked the Constitutional Court on Thursday to block an arrest warrant from the Seoul Western District Court. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials, which is leading the investigation on the insurrection charges, failed to arrest Yoon on Jan. 3 after a standoff between police officers and the president’s security staff. The Constitutional Court will hold the first formal hearing of Yoon’s impeachment trial on Jan. 14.

Who is in charge now?

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo acted as president after Yoon’s impeachment. But on Dec. 27, the National Assembly impeached Han over his resistance to opposition-led efforts to fill three vacancies on the Constitutional Court without bipartisan consent.

The appointments to bring the court’s numbers back up to its full nine members are politically sensitive because the court must decide within 180 days whether to uphold or dismiss Yoon’s impeachment. At least six justices must uphold Yoon’s impeachment for him to be removed from office permanently.

Choi Sang-mok, the nation’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, is now the acting president. He has filled two of the court’s vacancies, one nomination each from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party.

Why was Yoon impeached?

Yoon declared martial law on Dec. 3, saying he wanted to protect South Korea from “threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eradicate … shameless pro-North, anti-state factions.” Within hours of Yoon’s decree, the National Assembly voted 190-0 to lift martial law, forcing Yoon to revoke his order. On Dec. 14, the 300-member National Assembly voted 204-85 to pass the impeachment motion against Yoon.

Analysts say Yoon invoked martial law out of ongoing frustration with the opposition-led National Assembly, where Yoon’s party has been unable to pass legislation.

What happens if the Constitutional Court removes Yoon from office?

South Korea must hold a national election to select Yoon’s successor within 60 days. Analysts believe Lee Jae-myung, leader of the progressive Democratic Party of Korea, would likely win. In 2022, Lee lost the presidential election to Yoon by less than one percentage point of the popular vote.

If Lee becomes president, his party “would likely come into conflict with the United States as it resists American efforts for Seoul to assume a larger role against the encroaching Chinese threat,” wrote Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation. Lee’s party would also reduce sanctions against North Korea in the attempt to moderate the North’s increasingly aggressive behavior, Klingner added.

How has North Korea acted amid the South’s instability?

The totalitarian state fired a ballistic missile on Monday, continuing its weapons testing. The launch coincided with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Seoul to discuss with North Korea’s nuclear threat, among other issues. North Korean state media have sporadically reported on developments connected to Yoon’s impeachment.

Experts believe North Korea will mostly watch what happens in the South before making any major moves to capitalize on the turmoil. Whether Yoon is reinstated or Lee becomes president in a snap election will influence inter-Korean relations as conservatives in the South tend to take a hardline approach toward the North, while progressives tend to favor engagement.

At the same time, a “major thaw in relations is unlikely even if South Koreans elect a progressive president,” according to Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reinforced the division between the North and South and solidified his position such that he’d be less willing to offer meaningful concessions to Seoul or Washinington, Garlauskas explained.

How are relations between South Korea and the United States?

During Blinken’s meeting with Choi on Monday, Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s confidence in the strength of the two nations’ alliance and emphasized America’s “iron-clad commitment” to defend South Korea, the U.S. State Department said.

But Trump’s upcoming return to the White House poses uncertainties for South Korea while it lacks a permanent leader to make a case for the nation. Trump may be more likely to impose tariffs and “demand to renegotiate America’s standing agreements with Seoul that protect free trade and cost-sharing for defense,” Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote for The Atlantic. Trump could also withdraw U.S. troops numbering about 28,500 from South Korea, Cha noted.