Lame-duck Congress has daunting to-do list

If U.S. House members were hoping for an easy ride from Election Day to the end of the year, they can forget about it.

Congress adjourned in October to give lawmakers time to campaign. But when they make their way back to Capitol Hill on Nov. 12, they have important business to complete and a deadline of Jan. 3, when the session closes and the new Congress is sworn in. The “lame duck” session that comes at the end of each two-year session of Congress has become increasingly important for the House of Representatives in recent years. This time around, political challenges might make it less productive. How much gets done will likely depend directly on the outcome of the Nov. 5 elections.

First and foremost, Congress has until Dec. 20 to pass some sort of spending measure or risk a partial government shutdown. Second, lawmakers must pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which sets out how much Congress intends to spend on defense. But amid questions about foreign military engagements, passing this year’s NDAA could be more difficult than usual. And finally, Congress needs to pass the Farm Bill, which expires every five years and sets out wide-ranging provisions for farming standards, subsidies, and government welfare programs.

Joseph Postell, associate professor of politics at Hillsdale College, doesn’t expect Congress to get through it all. I asked him whether he sees lawmakers approving an extension for one or more of these top priorities.

“I would not be surprised,” Postell said. “And the problem here is these are things that have to get done. This is always the problem with these measures, in particular, as opposed to something like a new priority.”

Before leaving town for the October recess, most House members evaded questions about what they expected out of the lame-duck session. Many said they would wait until after the election to communicate their priorities. But at least a few think that Congress has no excuse for not finishing its to-do list.

“To me, there’s no earthly reason why we can’t get a farm bill, an NDAA, and a common-sense, fiscally responsible funding package done by the end of the year. I mean, let’s do our job,” Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., chairman of the Main Street Caucus, told WORLD.

Lame-duck sessions haven’t always been critical for the House. In the 20 years before 2012, the House passed just five pieces of legislation or fewer between a presidential election and the start of the new Congress. In fact, in 1988, 1992, and 1996, the House passed no legislation at all during the lame-duck window.

In the same window of time, the House passed 15 pieces of legislation in 2012, nine in 2016, and 13 in 2020. Much of that legislation had to do with spending, national security, and veterans affairs. The 118th Congress will look to do more of the same. But with just a four-seat Republican majority, the political cost might be significantly higher—especially for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

In the past year, Republicans have relied repeatedly on Democratic votes to pass bills that the GOP’s right flank did not support. If Johnson plans to apply the same strategy with government spending, the farm bill, and the NDAA, it could cost him his job. He’s already faced one attempt to remove him as speaker for what the most conservative Republicans see as an overreliance on Democrats.

“For Republicans, the situation today is just about the worst they could expect,” said Sean Theriault, professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. He studies congressional decision-making and interpersonal relationships on the Hill. “But the situation could be much better. If they win two coin-flips, they could have total control of government come January,” Theriault said, referring to the tight races for the White House and Senate.

If Republicans win control of all three branches of government, then it doesn’t matter if they don’t get much done in what’s left of the year. But that’s if they win.

If they lose the majority in the House, Republicans could be stuck with less than a month to advance their priorities, and Speaker Mike Johnson could be out the door. Unlike the vote to become speaker, which requires a majority of the entire House, it only takes the support of half of the party’s members in the House to become minority leader. As it stands now that’s just 110 votes; a much easier bar to clear for anyone looking to challenge Johnson.

Either way, the uncertainty makes it difficult to predict just how the House will go about tackling its outstanding priorities.

“Everyone is just waiting until after the election because then they’ll all know the partisan landscape for the next couple of years,” Theriault added.

Dusty Johnson, the congressman from South Dakota, is ready to be disappointed on some level.

On spending, for instance, he has low hopes that Congress will make its way back to the 12-bill process it’s supposed to use instead of the bulky, all-or-nothing omnibus bills that have been used for much of the past 40 years. He does, however, expect the GOP to make some sort of progress in that direction. Last year, Republicans passed the government’s spending in two tranches.

“I mean, nobody on the planet thinks we’re going to 12 done,” Johnson said. “So, at some point, there’s going to be a fashioning together, and I just think we’re not interested in moving backward. Two packages isn’t sufficient. We need to do better than that. But two is better than one, [and] four is better than two.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has hinted that he expects a lot out of the lame-duck session. But he, too, is waiting on the election results and staying clear of specifics.

“That will be to be decided once the American people have had the opportunity to weigh in on the future of the Congress on Nov. 5,” Jeffries said in his last leadership news conference before the election late last month.