Kentucky’s expensive House race highlights GOP divisions

Update, 9:42 p.m.:

The Associated Press on Tuesday evening called the GOP House primary race in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District for former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, ending Rep. Thomas Massie’s 14-year tenure. Massie’s downfall following Gallrein’s endorsement by President Donald Trump marks the second notable intraparty defeat in recent days, following Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy’s weekend loss in a Senate primary race against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow. Massie has long vexed the president through public opposition to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and calls for the release of files associated with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Gallrein will now face Democratic nominee Melissa Strange for the District 4 House seat in November’s general election.

In Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, Rep. Andy Barr won the Republican nomination, beating out former Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Barr had also received Trump’s endorsement.

Original story, 3:11 p.m.:

Voters in six states went to the polls in primary elections Tuesday, but one state in particular has garnered national attention: In Kentucky, a race featuring eight-term Republican Rep. Thomas Massie facing off against a Trump-endorsed challenger has broken a record for the most expensive House primary in history. That race for the 4th Congressional District, along with a U.S. Senate primary race in the state, has drawn special attention from the White House this year and highlighted Republican interparty division.

Massie, whose district stretches from the outskirts of Louisville along the Ohio River and into parts of Appalachia, offers a rare example of a Republican who frequently and openly opposes President Donald Trump. The Vanceburg native has criticized the Iran war and U.S. military aid to Israel and was one of two Republican votes against Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Against Trump’s wishes, Massie led a GOP drive alongside former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., to release government files ​on the late convicted sex offender ⁠Jeffrey Epstein.

Trump hasn’t taken Massie’s opposition kindly. He has endorsed Massie’s primary opponent, Ed Gallrein, and amped up his attacks on Massie in Truth Social posts, where he called the congressman a “disloyal, ungracious and sanctimonious FOOL.”

Losing Trump’s endorsement can be a campaign killer for Republican candidates, as attested by Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy’s weekend loss to Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow. Trump made Cassidy a target after the senator voted to convict the president over the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

But Massie’s fate is ultimately for Kentucky voters to decide. David Walls, executive director of the Family Foundation, a Kentucky-based nonprofit advocating for God-honoring public policy, said that despite Trump’s popularity in the state, Kentuckians have an “independent streak.”

“Some of the candidates that are in these races have very long track records on issues that Kentuckians care about,” said Walls. “I think endorsements can matter, but I think some of the state endorsements matter as well, whether you’re talking about some of the pro-life organizations like Kentucky Right to Life and Northern Kentucky Right to Life.”

Gallrein did not receive endorsement from either pro-life group, despite his supportive stance on right-to-life issues. Northern Kentucky Right to Life endorsed Massie, while Kentucky Right to Life recommended the incumbent as the only House candidate to respond to its 2026 questionnaire.

So far, Massie has stood his ground against Trump’s criticisms and asked Kentuckians to send him back to Washington, even if it means conflicting with the president’s agenda. At a pro-Massie rally at Veterans Memorial Park in Vanceburg the night before the election, at least some voters seemed happy with his approach.

At the event, where attendees munched on pulled pork and barbecue chicken, the congressman promised to curb federal spending and corporate overreach. He also pledged to bring more transparency to Washington. During his speech, he highlighted his role in forcing a vote on bipartisan legislation requiring the Justice Department to release all its records on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein—comments that brought cheers from his supporters.

“I didn’t make the Epstein files about Trump, and I didn’t make it about Bill Clinton,” he said. “I don’t care about that. It’s about the survivors and people being victimized.”

His words found their mark with many in the crowd. Nichole Cantu, a registered Republican who sits on the Vanceburg City Council, said the Epstein case was a core reason she’d be voting for Massie.

“I have children,” she said. “I have a daughter. And I know that he’s gonna get to the bottom of the Epstein issue. I just know that he’s gonna do the right thing for our nation and for all the women—the young ladies.”

Kenneth Hilger also attended Monday’s rally and said he’d already cast an early ballot for Massie. It was Massie’s pledge to do something about the national debt that Hilger said most attracted him to the candidate. He added that Trump’s decision to endorse Massie’s GOP opponent actually made him more eager to vote for Massie.

“I’m very much on the down-slide with Mr. Trump,” Hilger said. “Because I think he’s too much of a braggard. He gets out there and he badmouths people for no reason. And he’s badmouthed Mr. Massie, and I think it’s been detrimental to him.”

But he added that Trump hadn’t lost his support entirely.

“I do support Mr. Trump’s policies,” he said. “I wish he would get back into the MAGA line and do what he said that he told everybody he was going to do. The fraud that Mr. Massie talked about. The national debt that he talked about.”

Gallrein, Massie’s Trump-endorsed opponent, is a fifth-generation farmer and former Navy SEAL officer whose campaign has emphasized gun rights, border security, lower taxes, and protecting the unborn. In an unusual move by a presidential administration, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke at a campaign event in Kentucky for Gallrein on Monday. Hegseth told listeners he was speaking in a personal capacity only.

During the campaign, Gallrein cast himself as the candidate willing to push Trump’s agenda through Congress, while he characterized Massie as an obstructionist.

“It’s not just President Trump,” Gallrein told Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser on Monday. “It’s the agenda that the Republican conservatives have put forward. That’s what people are running against, like my opponent. He’s running against President Trump and the agenda that has been put forward by the Republican Party.”

Both sides in the competition between Gallrein and Massie have poured huge amounts of cash into campaign ads—adding up to over $32 million. Polls have predicted a tight race, with one May survey by Quantus Insights giving Gallrein a 5-point lead among likely voters.

Tom Sculthorpe, director of the Kenwood Institute, a Christian equipping organization based out of Louisville, said in a statement that his group appreciated Massie’s stand on the issues.

“We are thankful for principled leaders like Thomas Massie who reject partisanship in favor of avoidance of foreign entanglements and fiscal responsibility,” wrote Sculthorpe.

Despite Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, Walls from the Family Foundation touted the support Massie has received from conservative lawmakers, including Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Co., Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio.

“It’s an interesting dynamic where you have the president of the United States and some big national forces and money coming in supporting candidates, [whereas] at the state level, you’re seeing a lot of grassroots conservatives, and I would say pretty strong Christian conservatives, backing other candidates,” said Walls. “It’s going to be interesting to see which of those voices resonates the most.”

Also on the ballot

The second Republican contest attracting national attention in Kentucky is the U.S. Senate race. Kentucky’s longest-serving senator, former Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, announced his retirement on his 83rd birthday last year. With McConnell’s term ending, Republicans including Rep. Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron are vying for his seat.

Cameron, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2023 with the endorsement of President Donald Trump, lost his White House backing in the Senate race. Trump has instead endorsed Barr, calling him a “Proven Political Winner” on Truth Social and adding that “Andy is the only Candidate who will easily defeat the Democrat in what will be one of the most important Elections in American History.”

Emerson College Polling predicts a tight race with a slight edge for Barr, while Republican pollster Robert Blizzard offers him a more dominating 19-point lead. Blizzard’s key finding was that only 68% of Republican voters know about Trump’s recent endorsement, and of those who do, 80% support Barr.

Cameron remained confident in a post on X earlier this month, days after Trump endorsed Barr, saying, “I’m in this race for you—not corporate lobbyists, not the political class, and certainly not the Washington swamp. I’m here to put the people of Kentucky first. And I’m not going anywhere.”

The last Democrat to serve as a U.S. senator for Kentucky retired in 1999, but several Democratic candidates are still entering the fray, arguing they will buck the trend with a rare opening due to McConnell’s retirement. Former state Rep. Charles Booker, retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, and political outsider Logan Forsythe are among the leading Democratic candidates.