Islamic State regroups at hub in Somalia

The United States and its allies defeated Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) six years ago. But the terror network remained active and has a new flagship affiliate in Somalia. The Somali government, with help from international allies, is working to keep the group from expanding as the new operational and financial hub of the global Islamic State.

In February, the U.S. Africa Command partnered with the government of Somalia to carry out three separate airstrikes targeting the Islamic State in Somalia. The strikes killed at least 16 terrorists, including Ahmed Maeleninine, a key recruiter who oversaw deployments of extremists to the United States and Europe. The AFRICOM airstrikes come as security forces in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region in the country’s remote northeast continue a weekslong offensive to recapture territory from the Islamic State in Somalia.

How big is the group now? The Islamic State in Somalia has about 1,000 fighters, mostly operating out of its base in the mountains of Puntland. Analysts have credited part of the growth to an inflow of foreign fighters, many from other African countries and the Middle East. In October, AFRICOM commander Gen. Michael Langley told Voice of America that the group had roughly doubled in the past year. A report the following month from the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team for Somalia warned that foreign fighters had come from Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, and Yemen. The group’s ranks include some captured foreign fighters and others recruited for their skills, according to The Washington Post. The UN report said the group particularly sought out Syrians and Tunisians skilled in drones and bomb-making, and Moroccans who can fix vehicles and work as carpenters.

What’s IS-Somalia’s agenda? The group is apparently focused on expanding beyond captured territory in Puntland into other parts of Somalia, but it has so far failed to do so. Defeating security forces is another priority. This month, insurgents attacked military bases in Puntland using suicide car and motorcycle bombs. Military officials said at least 70 IS militants died in the attack.

The insurgent group broke away from al-Shabaab, a local al-Qaeda affiliate, in 2015. It has played a more strategic role within the wider Islamic State network in recent years, especially as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria lost its stronghold. After a period of receiving funding from Iraq and Syria, the Somalia group generated about $6 million from 2022 to 2024, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, which called the branch “ISIS’s primary revenue generator.” The majority of the funds come from extortion and taxes imposed on local business owners. Somalia is home to al-Karrar, one of the Islamic State’s regional finance offices, which has routed funding to other insurgents in South Africa and affiliates in central Africa, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. The group has offered guidance to other branches across the continent. IS-Somalia’s orange-bearded leader, Abdulqadir Mumin, is now widely viewed as the new global caliph of the Islamic State.

How are local forces responding? Security forces in Puntland launched an offensive in January against IS-Somalia and al-Shabaab militants in the region. The Puntland counter-terrorism operations unit has chronicled its operations, including clearing out several terrorist hideouts and seizing ammunition left behind. On Wednesday, the force confirmed it entered the town of Dhasan, formerly the largest IS stronghold in the region, without any resistance.

But these advances only mark the first stage of such operations, said Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. He noted the region is mostly remote with limited government presence. “Pushing them out of locations isn’t really the hardest part,” he told me. “The hardest part is securing the ground and holding it thereafter.”

Any foreign support? The U.S. airstrikes in February came weeks after President Donald Trump began his second term in office. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the targets send “a clear signal that the United States always stands ready to find and eliminate terrorists who threaten the United States and our allies.” The United Arab Emirates has backed Somali troops with training and similar airstrikes. A Tuesday airstrike killed 25 Islamic State insurgents. On Wednesday, the Somali government announced the deployment of more than 11,000 troops from five other African countries as part of an African Union peacekeeping mission.

Is this reminiscent of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria? In its prime, ISIS similarly recruited and attracted foreign fighters, although they numbered in the tens of thousands. In Iraq, the insurgent group capitalized on Sunni discontent with the Shia-majority government, particularly in the western region, to make a rebound in 2011. In neighboring Syria, the terrorists took advantage of the 2011 uprising against the now-deposed President Bashar al-Assad to take root. Mahmood explained that, in Somalia, the insurgents capitalized on their leaders’ community ties to a sub-clan in the Puntland region. “To what degree can Puntland leverage those ties in their favor, rather than the Islamic State’s favor?” he said. “I think that’s really going to be the key going forward to ensuring the group is fully rooted out.”