In a stew over Argentine beef

President Donald Trump started a stampede of criticism from the beef industry—and a plunge in cattle prices—when he suggested in mid-October he would import more beef from Argentina to rein in higher prices at U.S. grocery stores and prop up the Argentine economy.

Some of the president’s supporters aren’t enthusiastic, either. On Wednesday, 14 Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to the Trump administration expressing their apprehensions.

“We are concerned that granting additional market access to Argentina—already one of our largest beef suppliers—will undermine American cattle producers, weaken our position in ongoing trade negotiations, and reintroduce avoidable animal-health risks,” they wrote.

Argentina’s beef herd is substantial but its U.S. beef exports are dwarfed by those of countries like Canada and Australia. Still, the president’s proposal to quadruple the allowable low-tariff imports from the South American nation has ranchers concerned, even before it is implemented, that increased imports will bring unintended consequences for the U.S. beef industry.

“We have the safest, best protein on the planet,” said Justin Tupper, president of the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association. “We want to make sure we keep it that way.”

The U.S. cattle herd of about 87 million is at a 75-year low, according to the Department of Agriculture. Increasing the herd usually lowers prices, but changes aren’t reflected on store shelves quickly: It can take 30 months for a calf to get to market, and cattle numbers typically wax and wane in 10-year cycles.

Under current tariff rules, Argentina can export 20,000 metric tons of beef to the United States before paying a higher 26% tariff rate. It has already exported about 30,000 metric tons to the U.S. this year.

Fresh ground beef was selling at about $6 a pound in October. The price of beef and veal has risen 16% in the past year, significantly outpacing the price growth of pork, chicken, and seafood, according to the most recent consumer price index. The rising cost of beef is due to several factors, including historically low domestic cattle herds, prolonged drought, and high costs for ranchers. Trump’s Argentina plan aims to lower U.S. shelf prices by adding beef to the market.

The week after Trump told a reporter about his plans, live cattle prices fell 7%, according to data from Barchart.

Cattle ranchers often support beef imports, which are added to domestic cuts, primarily ground beef. But they aren’t yet sure if Trump’s announced plan will help.

“[It’s] such a bold statement, without any details,” said Jim Magagna, executive vice president of the Wyoming Stock Growers Association. “It has really caused concern amongst most of the producers I’ve talked with.”

Despite U.S. tariffs, beef imports were up 12% from a year ago through August, according to USDA data. Canada and Australia, the two largest foreign sources of beef, have shipped over 1 million metric tons to the United States this year. Imports from Brazil started the year above average but dropped precipitously after Trump doubled the tariff on Brazilian beef to 76% this summer.

The United States currently bans imports of beef from Mexico due to a flesh-eating screwworm parasite found in its herds. (The United States previously banned beef imports from Argentina between 2001 and 2015 because of foot-and-mouth disease.)

Compared with beef imports from other countries, Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., calls Argentina’s effect on U.S. beef sales a blip.

“It is a red herring. As far as the beef industry, that means nothing,” he said. “Argentina could triple, could quadruple the amount of beef sales into this country and it wouldn’t touch what we’re missing from Brazil and from Mexico right now.”

Roughly 17% of U.S. cattle ranches have ceased operations since 2017. New ranchers, operations with small herds, and family farms have struggled to remain viable during prolonged droughts. To generate temporary cash, ranchers sell off more of their stock. When grazing conditions improve and feed prices decline, ranchers typically keep heifers—young female cows that have not borne a calf—to expand their herds, driving up prices for the fewer cows going to slaughter.

“A lot of our ranchers are finally catching up with the cost of production and making a living wage,” said Tupper.

Talk of increased imports comes at a terrible time for producers who are deciding now how many young calves to keep to grow their herd and how many to sell for profit.

For decades, beef producers have called for federal reforms to grazing and meatpacking rules. On Oct. 22, administration officials announced a multi-point initiative to strengthen the American beef industry. The proposal would add more grazing areas and streamlining the permitting process across 240 million acres administered by the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service. It also sets new standards to determine compensation for stock killed by predators like wolves and coyotes.

Advocacy groups have objected to the proposals, warning of ecological damage from increased grazing, allegedly lax oversight, and reduced protections for endangered species.

“The Bureau of Land Management right now is renewing over 60% of grazing permits without any environmental analysis,” said Josh Osher, public policy director for Western Watersheds Project. “It’s just status quo, rubber-stamp grazing.”

In January, the USDA will begin enforcing a year-old policy of restricting “made in the USA” labeling to beef from cattle born, raised, and slaughtered in the United States. Currently, imported beef can be labeled a product of America if it’s processed in the United States.

The federal government also announced grants of up to $2 million each for up to 50 new small meat processors. The goal is to diversify the meatpacking industry, which is currently dominated by a few large conglomerates, a situation some argue contributes to high prices.

“My guys back home, my ranchers are making $2.40 a pound, but we’re selling it for $15 a pound,” said Sen. Marshall from Kansas. “So somewhere between the rancher and the grocery store, somebody’s making a lot of money.”

As ranchers mull their options and consumers hope for lower prices, Republicans are calling for patience and pressing the administration to rethink Argentine imports.

“Obviously we don’t want to advantage foreign producers over our own domestic producers on anything, including Texas beef,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. “The president, I think, wants to try to maintain a relationship with Argentina that we need to do in Latin America generally, because of all the inroads that China and Russia have made.”

—with additional reporting by Carolina Lumetta in Washington

This story was corrected Nov. 3 to reflect that Argentina has a larger beef herd than either Canada or Australia.