How Campaign 2024 turned on a dime

Not even two months ago, former President Donald Trump was swimming upstream while President Joe Biden coasted on a current of positive press. Trump was a newly convicted felon, while the press portrayed Biden as a steady leader who’d nailed his State of the Union address in March. Then they appeared on stage together at the June 17 presidential debate, and everything changed.

One delegate at last week’s Republican National Convention said the events of the past few weeks were “like a movie thriller that just keeps going and going.” The energy among Republicans and the chaos among Democrats didn’t come out of nowhere. A look back over the past two years shows the signs were there—both of Biden’s age-related decline and Trump’s smoldering but still-ignitable popularity.

Biden rambles, Trump is raided

At a nomination speech delivered at the White House for Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in April 2022, Biden remarked that the United States could be described in a single word. But in a moment that would become internet-famous, the president seemed to lose his train of thought, sputtering before pivoting to talk about a time he met Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the foothills of the Himalayas during his time as vice president. Less than three months later, polling by the The New York Times found that 62 percent of respondents did not want Biden to run for reelection, citing his age among other concerns. The nomination speech became emblematic of the president’s other verbal miscues—stumbles conservative media said was evidence of cognitive decline and that liberal media largely ignored.

In a rare interview on 60 Minutes that September, Biden said he could not yet commit to running for reelection and he remained focused on priorities such as lowering inflation. When, later in the interview, he was asked to assess his mental focus, Biden replied, “Oh it’s focused. I’d say it’s—I think it’s—I haven’t—Look, I have trouble even mentioning, even saying to myself in my own head the number of years. I no more think of myself as being as old as I am than a fly.” In the same month, polling by Emerson College found Biden’s approval rate had dropped to 49 percent—a four-point drop over three months. According to reporting from Axios, Biden has engaged in the fewest media interviews of any president since Ronald Reagan.

Even as Biden fell in the polls, Trump’s poll numbers seemed bulletproof—maybe even prison- proof. The month before Biden’s 60 Minutes interview, FBI agents executed a search warrant at Trump’s resort and home in Florida. They found boxes with more than 13,000 documents with various classification markings from his time as president. The Justice Department later appointed special counsel Jack Smith to the investigation. He charged Trump with violating the Espionage Act for improperly retaining classified documents and refusing to hand them over to the National Archives.

In the days following the FBI raid, Trump’s political action committee sent over 100 fundraising emails, bringing in more than $200,000 per day. In the emails, Trump painted the raid as “an attack by Radical Left Democrats who desperately don’t want me to run for President in 2024.” He announced his reelection bid three months later.

Then in March 2023, Trump’s poll numbers got a major boost after a Manhattan jury voted to indict him on 34 felony counts of business fraud. Still, Real Clear Politics showed Trump’s primary poll numbers up by about six points. In April, Trump passed Biden in the polls for the first time that year.

By the time Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis filed election interference and racketeering charges against Trump in August, national polling had swung back in Biden’s favor, though within the margin of error. On Aug. 24, Trump’s support bottomed out at 43 percent, but it only climbed from that point on. Trump insisted he was innocent of all charges and that the political elites were targeting him because he represented everyday Americans.

It was then that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted: “I think every American who cares about the rule of law should be enraged by what they saw. He’ll be stronger, and he’ll win the general election.”

The politics of aging

While not directly a reflection on Biden, the September death of 90-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., raised concerns about America’s older political leadership. The month before, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., 82, suffered a prolonged pause at a news conference that also raised concerns about his seniority. The pause was the second time McConnell could not respond to questions put to him during a news conference. He had also recently recovered from a fall that sidelined him for roughly six weeks. A poll put out by CBS News shortly before Feinstein’s passing found that over 75 percent of respondents would have supported an age limit for elected officials.

Then came special counsel Robert Hur. The lawyer’s investigation into Biden’s own retention of classified documents did not result in a prosecution, but Hur’s findings landed like a bombshell anyway: In his 388-page report, Hur described Biden as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Hur noted Biden had struggled to remember when his eldest son, Beau Biden, had died. Democrats blasted the report as a political hit job, and Biden pushed back against the characterization. “Frankly, when I was asked the question, I didn’t think it was any of their damn business. I don’t need anyone reminding me of when he passed away. For any extraneous commentary, they don’t know what they’re talking about. My memory is fine,” Biden said at a news conference.

That was February of this year. The next month, the president delivered a forceful State of the Union address, striking what many onlookers viewed as a campaign-like tone. Although some characterized his performance as feeble compared to State of the Union addresses of years past, Democrats came away reassured. “He was absolutely focused on what the American people need. But he was excited, exhilarating, and he showed the American people that he is not in any way not prepared to be the president for the next four years,” the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas, told WORLD in March. (Lee passed away last week after a battle with pancreatic cancer.)

Trump on trial

Trump and Biden were statistically tied in the polls when Trump appeared in a Manhattan court in April for his business fraud trial. The images of the former president on trial motivated the base of both parties, especially in fundraising. Biden and the Democratic National Committee raised $51 million in April while Trump and the GOP raked in $76 million. Biden’s campaign had $192 million in cash on-hand at the time, but it also spent almost as much as it raised on a monthly basis.

When Republican Nikki Haley exited the primary race in March, Trump became the presumptive nominee, and several of his former challengers took on the role of campaign surrogates. Trump also began to rework the leadership in the Republican National Convention, installing his daughter-in-law Lara Trump and North Carolina GOP chairman Michael Whatley as leaders.

“Oh they’ll vote for me again, everybody. And I’m not sure we need too many,” he told reporters in New Hampshire before the state’s January primary. Haley had not yet endorsed Trump and said he would have to work to win over her supporters who were disillusioned with his platform. “I think that Biden is the worst president in the history of this country. But ... they’re all coming back,” he said.

On May 30, 2024, another bombshell: A Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, making him the first former president to be convicted of a felony. While sentencing was originally scheduled for July 11, the court agreed to delay until September. And yet, Trump’s conviction did not significantly change how voters viewed Trump. His polling average fell just 2 percentage points, but so did Biden’s. Trump called the verdict a “disgrace” and the judge biased and corrupt. He also accused Biden of leveraging the justice system against him to try to prevent him from campaigning. 

Tipping point

Biden’s age finally became an unavoidable issue when, during his debate with Trump in June, he paused for prolonged periods of time, lost his train of thought, and spoke in a wispy, quiet voice.
“Before the debate was even over, I thought ‘he has to get out,’” said Craig Ellis, a Democratic voter.

During the debate, Trump responded that he didn’t know what Biden said at the end of a sentence, adding,“I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”

Republican voters watching called it the first moment they were sure Trump would win in November. Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) rose by 4 percent in the 24 hours after the debate.

Democratic voters called the debate a turning point: “They needed to see how Biden would do, and if they would replace him. And I don’t see how they’re not going to replace him at this point,” Georgia voter Taryn Bowman said after the debate. Democrats’ shock at Biden’s performance surprised her. “He performed better, in my opinion, than he has in the past, but, still, he lost this debate hands down.”

In the following days, Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill tried to evade questions about the president’s age. When asked if Biden was the best candidate for the party, Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., the ranking member on the House Rules Committee declined to give his opinion. “I’m going to let this play out,” McGovern told WORLD. Other Democrats like Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., reluctantly continued to back Biden. When asked if that was a pragmatic decision based on having no better choice, Nadler replied, “Well, yes.”

In the weeks after the debate, Trump’s standing in the polls jumped a percentage point while Biden’s numbers plummeted. Then, like the last few turns of a Rubik’s Cube solution, more events began to fall Trump’s way. The Supreme Court ruled on July 1 that Trump has presidential immunity for official acts he performed as president, but it did not rule whether his actions to contest the results of the 2020 election fell under official or unofficial duties. That decision further delayed legal proceedings in Trump’s federal case in Washington, D.C.

Then on July 15, Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida dismissed the classified documents case against Trump on procedural grounds. She said the Justice Department inappropriately appointed special counsel Jack Smith, thus invalidating the case. On July 16, a Georgia Court of Appeals delayed a hearing about District Attorney Willis’ involvement in Trump’s prosecution. The case will not move forward until after the election.

“Now everybody knows, not just as a Republican, conservative, but those in between, can see this whole thing was a witch hunt,” California Republican Arkan Somo said after the dismissal of Trump’s classified documents case. “So this whole thing was an attempt to stop a former president from running, and guess what? It’s all fallen on their head.”

Meanwhile, a growing number of Democrats called publicly for Biden to resign, starting with U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas. Biden initially defied the calls, but his defense weakened after an assassination attempt on Trump on July 13.

A 20-year-old with an AR-style rifle fired on Trump from a nearby rooftop at a campaign rally in Butler, Pa. The bullet struck the former president in the ear, and the Secret Service rushed him offstage. In the dramatic moments after shots rang out, a bloodied Trump raised a defiant fist in the air and called to the crowd to “fight.”

While polls do not yet reflect any statistical boost to Trump following the shooting, photos from the event seem to have further galvanized his support. At the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week, delegates wore shirts with the photo of Trump raising his fist. Their phone lockscreens displayed the same image, and nearly every speaker referenced the attempted assassination. Trump himself said it has made him even more determined in his campaign. Supporters said the convention this year was the most energized they had ever felt.

“We’re going to win in a landslide. We’re gonna win states that we’ve not won before,” Pennsylvania delegate Mike McMullen told WORLD. “Minnesota’s in play, Virginia for gosh sakes, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Even if the Democrats replace Biden, it doesn’t matter who the hell they’re replacing him with. I don’t care if it’s Kamala, Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, my own governor Josh Shapiro, it doesn’t matter. It’s over. It was over as of last Saturday.”

On Sunday, Biden made dubious history: He announced he was withdrawing from the race.