Doctors in demand

Finding a family doctor could get a lot more difficult in the next 10 years.

The United States already has a physician shortage—fewer doctors than are necessary to meet patient demand in a reasonable amount of time. But it’s about to get a lot worse. By 2030, the U.S. medical system will be short as many as 121,500 doctors, according to a recent estimate by the Association of American Medical Colleges.

Some medical schools have framed the problem in financial terms: Last month New York University announced a plan to offer free tuition to help reduce future doctors’ debt loads. It’s the first medical school to offer such a deal, but it probably won’t be the last. NYU’s associate dean for admissions and financial aid, Rafael Rivera, said medical schools have a “moral imperative” to remove potential obstacles, especially for doctors who might choose less lucrative fields, like primary care, if they didn’t have so much debt.

But is the prospect of mountainous student loans really keeping America’s best and brightest from choosing a career in medicine?

The number of students applying to medical school suggests it’s not. Medical schools have increased enrollment by 30 percent since 2002, and the number of applicants has grown by 50 percent. To help accommodate all the physician hopefuls, 22 new medical schools have opened since 2007.

If so many students want to become doctors, why do we have a projected shortage?

Demographics play a significant role. The number of Americans aged 65 or older is expected to grow by 50 percent between 2016 and 2030. By contrast, the population under 18 is expected to grow by only 3 percent. Older people need more medical care.

And while medical schools are turning out new doctors, they’re not enough to replace the ones hanging up their stethoscopes. More than one-third of all active physicians will be 65 or older within the next decade.

Another problem: Younger doctors are working less. According to the Association of American Medical Colleges, if the trend of physicians working part time continues at current levels, we will have 32,500 fewer doctors working full time in 2030—about one-quarter of the overall projected shortage.

David Stevens, CEO of the Christian Medical and Dental Association, blames the increase in part-time doctors on burnout. Younger doctors, especially millennials, have a different view of work-life balance. They want more time at home with their families and are willing to work less and make less to have a better quality of life, Stevens told me.

But the medical profession’s industrialization has pushed doctors of all ages to consider cutting back. Most doctors now work as employees for large healthcare networks that are more focused on the bottom line than on building patient relationships.

“It used to be a profession where you as an individual have a covenant relationship with the patient, you’re running your own practice, you had control,” Stevens said. “Healthcare professionals feel like they have very little control or say in what happens and they’ve become units of production.”

And while many doctors struggle with disillusionment over changes to their profession, Stevens finds the problem particularly acute among Christian physicians: “People get a few years of practice and they think, ‘Wow, is my life going to be like this for the rest of my life? I want to have ministry. I want to build myself into people's lives. I want to provide them spiritual and physical healing, and I’m not having the opportunity to do that like I hoped.’”

Digging into data on school shootings

Advocates for stricter gun laws insist tighter controls are necessary to stem an epidemic of school shootings. Activists in Boston recently staged a mock back-to-school fashion show that featured bulletproof vests, helmets, and gas masks. The not-so-subtle message: American schools are dangerous places.

Two horrific shootings during the last school year would seem to back that assertion. Statistics quoted in many media stories also paint a dire picture: Everytown for Gun Safety has logged at least 57 incidents of gunfire on campus so far in 2018. Government statistics are even worse. A U.S. Department of Education report released this spring claimed 235 schools reported at least one incident involving a gun during the 2015-16 school year.

But most of those incidents never happened, according to an analysis by NPR. Reporters managed to confirm just 11 incidents from the government data. The rest? Reporting errors. Some of them are blatantly obvious: Cleveland schools reported 37 shootings, but that number was actually entered on the wrong line of the spreadsheet. The real number of shootings in Cleveland schools? Zero.

Legislators are spending millions on school safety measures across the country. If school shootings aren’t really a widespread problem, is that money well spent? —L.J.

Busing in bottled water

Students heading back to school this week in Detroit won’t be racing to the water fountain after recess. Administrators at Detroit Public Schools announced last week they would shut off drinking water at all 106 schools after tests revealed elevated levels of lead and copper. The district’s 50,000 students will instead have access to bottled water—a switch expected to cost $200,000 for the first two months. Officials hope to negotiate a better deal for the rest of the school year. Detroit isn’t the first big school district to switch to bottled water. Schools in Portland, Ore., shut off their water fountains in 2016, and most schools in Baltimore cut their taps more than 10 years ago. The water crisis in Flint, Mich., revealed the dangers of aging water system infrastructure. Experts warn contaminated drinking water is a widespread problem, especially in older communities. —L.J.

Binge-drinking crackdown

The North-American Interfraternity Conference voted almost unanimously this week to ban hard liquor at U.S. and Canadian fraternities. If they want to serve anything other than beer or wine, fraternities must hire a licensed, third-party vendor to provide the drinks. That could help prevent minors from binge drinking, since vendors risk losing their licenses if they serve to anyone under 21. Several alcohol-related deaths following frat parties at U.S. universities during the last school year prompted the change. All those cases involved pledges or fraternity members too young to drink legally. —L.J.

Settlement in Piazza case

Timothy Piazza, a 19-year-old Penn State University student who died after a fraternity hazing ritual in 2017, became the face for the push to hold Greek organizations accountable for their booze-soaked soirees. This week, Beta Theta Pi’s national organization settled a lawsuit filed by Piazza’s parents. The family declined to disclose the financial terms but announced the fraternity agreed to adopt a 17-point safety program to prevent similar tragedies in the future. Jim and Evelyn Piazza have had limited success seeking justice for their son. A Pennsylvania judge dismissed the most serious charges against the fraternity members who didn’t get help for Piazza even after he fell down a flight of stairs and lay unconscious for hours. —L.J.