Democratic presidential support waning in New York

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: There are over 13 million registered voters in New York. Approximately half of these—6.4 million—are registered Democrats, while fewer than 3 million are registered Republicans. Three million voters are unaffiliated while 600,000 others belong to smaller parties such as the Conservative Party and the Working Families Party.

New York has an usually high level of participation from minor parties thanks to the state’s “fusion voting” system, which allows multiple parties to endorse the same candidate. Although fusion voting used to be widespread, only a few states still authorize the practice.

For decades, New York has been a stronghold for Democratic presidential hopefuls. Voters there have chosen a Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1988, with six of those contests decided by at least a 20 percent margin.

However, New York’s dramatic migrant crisis has eroded Democratic support in the state. An August 2023 Siena College Research Institute poll found that less than half of New Yorkers reported they would vote for Joe Biden compared to 34 percent who preferred Donald Trump —one of the slimmest margins for a Democratic frontrunner in the state in recent years.

Voting: In 2019, Gov. Andrew Cuomo authorized early voting for the first time in New York. His successor, Gov. Kathy Hochul, expanded the state’s mail-in voting options in 2023 to give all registered New York voters the option to cast an early ballot via mail. Hochul also approved same-day voter registration and added a requirement for jails to supply inmates with voter registration forms upon their release.

PRESIDENTIAL

Both Trump and Biden won their presidential primaries in New York by a landslide—Trump with about 82 percent of the Republican vote and Biden with almost 92 percent of the Democratic vote.

In 2020, the Republican Party canceled its primary in New York and handed Trump the nomination without contest after all other candidates failed to qualify for the ballot. Biden also won his primary that year with about 70 percent support.

Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee. In 2020, the Biden-Harris ticket carried 60.9 percent of the votes in the state in the general election.

SENATE

• Kirsten Gillibrand represents both the Democratic Party and the Working Families Party, and will defend her seat in the November elections this year. Gillibrand first took office in 2009 after Hillary Clinton relinquished her seat to become Barack Obama’s secretary of state. Voters have since elected Gillibrand to two full terms of her own. This year, both the Democratic and Working Families parties canceled their primaries and nominated Gillibrand without opposition.

• Mike Sapraicone represents both the Republican and Conservative parties and, like Gillibrand, faced no primary challengers for either nomination. Sapraicone is a retired New York police detective who runs a private security firm headquartered on Long Island.

• Diane Sare is a third candidate representing the LaRouche Party. The party is named after the eight-time presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche, known for his unorthodox ideas and unlikely political alliances.

U.S. HOUSE

New York has 26 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Democrats hold 16 of these while Republicans fill the remaining 10. According to the Cook Political Report, three of the most contested Republican-held seats nationwide are in New York.

• Anthony D’Esposito is a former New York police detective who represents voters in New York’s 4th Congressional District on Long Island. D’Esposito has campaigned on a platform of ending illegal immigration and cracking down on crime and has the endorsement of both the Republican and Conservative parties. He faces Democrat and Common Sense Party nominee Laura Gillen, who previously served as the first Democrat supervisor elected in Long Island’s Hempstead Town in over 100 years.

• Mike Lawler, a Republican from New York’s District 17, has made fiscal responsibility and tax relief central planks of his campaign. Lawler was first elected to this role in 2022, winning an impressive underdog victory against Democratic incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney. Democratic and Working Families Party challenger Mondaire Jones is a former U.S. representative who opted not to run in the 17th District in 2022 after a redistricting decision would have put him head-to-head with Maloney.

• Marc Molinaro from District 19 has served one term in his current role. He launched his political career at age 18 when he served on his city’s board of trustees. The following year, he became the youngest mayor in the United States at the time and later won a seat in the New York State Assembly. Molinaro is headed for a tough rematch against Democratic and Working Families Party rival Josh Riley, whom he beat in 2022. Riley is running on a platform of boosting the middle class and protecting the environment. Both Molinaro and Riley have criticized current U.S.-Mexico border policies.

BALLOT MEASURES

On June 18, a New York appeals court ruled that a proposed Equal Rights Amendment must return to the ballot after an upstate judge disqualified it on procedural grounds. The measure would add a host of new protected categories to the state’s constitution, such as “gender identity” and “pregnancy outcomes,” including abortion. Republican state Assemblywoman Marjorie Byrnes spearheaded the legal challenge to this measure, and the state Republican Party has vowed to keep fighting the ballot proposal in court.

Dig deeper:

• Read Liz Lykins’ report on parents suing a New York school district over free speech issues.

• Read Liz Lykins’ roundup on two pro-life pregnancy centers suing the state’s attorney general.

• Listen to Carolina Lumetta and Leo Briceno’s report on the possible political ramifications of former President Donald Trump’s Manhattan conviction.

• Read my report on ministries struggling to help migrants amid New York City’s crisis.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.