Candidates battle for a divided Wisconsin

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: As of Oct. 1, the state had more than 3.5 million active registered voters. Wisconsin does not register by party affiliation, but recent election results show the state is a mixed bag. It has favored the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1988 except in 2016, when former President Donald Trump carried 47.2 percent of the vote. But the state is currently one of seven with U.S. senators of split party affiliations. Wisconsin has a divided government, with a Democrat governor working against a Republican-majority state legislature.

Voting: Wisconsin allows same-day voter registration, with more than 6 percent of voters registering on Election Day in 2020. That year, nearly 73 percent of voters cast ballots with about 60 percent voting absentee, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the 2016 presidential election, roughly 27 percent voted absentee. As of Oct. 1, voters have already returned 87,086 absentee ballots for November’s general election. Any U.S. citizen who is 18 and older, has lived in the voting district for at least 28 consecutive days, and is registered to vote can receive an absentee ballot. Voters can request absentee ballots online or through the mail until the fifth day before an election or in person within 14 days before the election. Absentee ballots must arrive by 8 p.m. on Election Day to be counted. In-person early voting begins Tuesday, Oct. 22, and runs until Nov. 3.

PRESIDENTIAL

Wisconsin was one of five states that President Joe Biden flipped in 2020, winning him the presidency. In 2020, President Joe Biden won Wisconsin’s popular vote by less than 1 percent—just under 21,000 votes more than Trump. Trump similarly won the state by less than a percentage point in 2016, the year he won the presidential election. Republicans hosted their 2024 national convention in Milwaukee in July.

In April, Biden took 88.6 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, losing about 3 percent to candidate Dean Phillips and more than 8 percent to the “uninstructed delegation” option, a vote that indicates support for the party but not for any specific candidate. At the Democratic National Convention, 94 delegates voted for the new nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and one voted “present” to protest the administration’s support for Israel. Almost 13 percent of Wisconsin Republicans backed Nikki Haley in their primary, leaving Trump with less than 80 percent of the vote. Most recent polls now show Harris with an edge over Trump, with ABC News’ 538 putting Harris at an average of 1.6 percentage points ahead as of Oct. 1.

Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asked to have his name removed from Wisconsin’s ballot after he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump. But the state Supreme Court ruled Sept. 27 that his name would still appear on ballots since the deadline for him to withdraw his candidacy had already passed by the time his campaign ended on Aug. 23. Thousands of Wisconsin voters have already received absentee ballots bearing his name.

U.S. SENATE

Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seats have been split since Ron Johnson, a Republican, beat incumbent Russ Feingold, a Democrat, in 2010. Since the 1950s, Democrats have consistently held incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seat, which is up for grabs in November.

• Baldwin is running for her third term. She became the first openly gay U.S. senator when she won election in 2012. Baldwin is campaigning on opposing protections for unborn babies, and she cites her track record as the lead sponsor in the latest version of the Women’s Health Protection Act, legislation that would remove any existing protections for unborn babies nationally. She has also prioritized policies to make it easier to vote and to lower prescription drug costs.

• Eric Hovde, Baldwin’s Republican challenger, is a business owner, bank executive, and entrepreneur. In his campaign materials, he has pinned the skyrocketing national debt on Baldwin and Biden and has critiqued their immigration policies as the cause of “the worst border crisis in our nation’s history.” But the Democratic Party of Wisconsin has critiqued him for owning an expensive mansion in California, and Wisconsin newspapers have questioned his bank’s dealings with a Mexican bank that reportedly has ties to the cartel. Hovde received Trump’s endorsement earlier this year but has rejected the former president’s claims that Democrats stole the 2020 election. He won August’s Republican primary with more than 86 percent of the vote but is falling behind Baldwin in the polls by about five percentage points.

U.S. HOUSE

Two Democrats and five Republicans represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House of Representatives. Former Rep. Mike Gallagher left the state’s 8th Congressional District without a representative when he resigned from Congress on April 19. He had already announced in February that he would not run for re-election, after receiving criticism from fellow Republicans for voting against the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Republican primary winner Tony Wied will likely win the vacant seat.

Incumbents in the other seven seats are running for reelection, and five appear to be guaranteed winners—but Democratic challengers in two of the districts currently represented by Republicans seem to have a chance of turning the seats blue. Here are the races to watch.

• In the state’s 1st District, Democrat Peter Barca hopes to take a seat from incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil that Republicans have filled for more than 20 years. Barca briefly held the seat from 1993 to 1995 after winning a special election. This year, both ran unopposed in their primaries. According to the Cook Political Report and other race ratings, the district is in the “likely Republican” category, down from “solid Republican” in 2022, the year redistricting softened the district’s Republican leanings. The liberal group Opportunity Wisconsin has made Steil a top target as November approaches.

• In the 3rd District, Democrat Rebecca Cooke faces incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke lost a congressional race in the 2022 primaries, but this time beat out her opponents to challenge Van Orden, who is seeking his second term. Cooke frames herself as a farm girl and moderate who wants to secure the border and help working families. She calls her opponent a radical politician who opposes abortion and promotes election conspiracies. But Van Orden points to his moderate record in Congress and says he wants to work with Democrats. The Cook Political Report lists District 3 as a “lean Republican” district. In September, PBS Wisconsin called it “the most purple district in a purple state—every vote is up for grabs.” In 2022, voters there selected Democratic Gov. Tony Evers while backing Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.

BALLOT MEASURES

Wisconsinites in November will vote on a ballot measure that would amend the state constitution to clarify that only U.S. citizens 18 and older are allowed to vote in national, state, or local elections. The measure originated with the state legislature, which passed the amendment as a joint resolution in the latest two legislative sessions. It requires final approval from Wisconsin voters before it can appear in the constitution.
The Republican lawmakers in control of the state assembly and the Senate backed the proposed amendment. Supporters say the constitution’s current language, which states that “every United States citizen … is a qualified elector,” leaves open the possibility for allowing non-citizens to vote at the state or local level. Opponents say the amendment is unnecessary and would insert a political agenda into the state constitution.

Dig deeper:

• Listen to WORLD reporters talk about state-level ballot measures coming to states this fall, including ones to prohibit noncitizens from voting.

• Listen to Leo Briceno’s analysis of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support for Trump could influence independent voters in swing states.

• Read Christina Grube’s report on a Wisconsin judge’s dismissal of a lawsuit alleging the state Elections Commission didn’t follow proper procedures for absentee voting.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.