Big beautiful bill enters homestretch

It would take only a couple of stray votes from Republicans in Congress to derail President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. Between now and Thursday, Republicans must band together if they want to deliver on tax reform, border security, government spending, and more of the president’s promised policies.

As the Senate began work to pass Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Act on Monday morning, the many changes to the text have angered GOP moderates and conservatives alike in the House of Representatives. The pressure is on leaders in the House, who can afford to lose only three GOP votes, to smooth over the differences and deliver the bill to the president’s desk by the Fourth of July. And even before that, it's unclear if the package has the needed support to make it out of the Senate.

Here’s what happens next.

The vote-a-rama

Unlike the House of Representatives, senators can introduce any amendment they want to legislation, forcing consideration of what can sometimes be hundreds of proposed changes. The marathon of amendment considerations in the Senate, commonly referred to as a vote-a-rama, provides Democrats with their best weapon to stall a vote. It’s not a filibuster, the unlimited debate that can only be stopped by a 60-vote majority. But the vote-a-rama, which began at 9 a.m. on Monday, is expected to push consideration of the bill itself either late into the evening or early Tuesday morning.

By introducing amendment after amendment, Democrats can try to tempt Republicans toward policy positions that would fail in the House. Or they can just wear down senators. They can also sign on to Republican-led amendments that might go against what GOP leadership has in mind. In one such case, Democrats may try to support a proposal by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, aimed to double the bill’s funding for rural hospitals—a change likely to rub fiscal hawks the wrong way.

The vote-a-rama itself is not likely to pose a meaningful challenge to the Big Beautiful Bill, but it opens the door to political considerations that might complicate the process in the next steps.

The Senate vote

The Senate is using the budget reconciliation process to take up the Big Beautiful Bill, so Republicans only need 50 votes to break a filibuster and pass it. With two of 53 GOP senators already firmly opposed to the bill, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., can only afford to lose one more vote. A series of policy arguments could easily wiggle one vote loose.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., opposes the bill, saying it does not do enough to cut government spending. He’s joined by Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who announced on Sunday he isn’t running for reelection next year. Tillis is concerned that the bill may cut too much­—especially when it comes to Medicaid, the joint federal-state partnership that provides healthcare to seniors, those with disabilities, and low-income Americans.

Those two concerns are emblematic of where the GOP stands now: Republicans are either on the fence because they believe that the bill spends too much or not enough.

In political terms, the bill’s chances of success depend heavily on Trump and the pressure he can exert to whip votes.

The House of Representatives

Leaders in the House notified members that votes could happen as early as Wednesday at 9 a.m. The notice isn’t a confirmation that the chamber will take up the bill (assuming it passes the Senate). But it’s a strong indicator lawmakers can expect a vote sometime Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning.

Already, groups of Republicans have voiced concern about the changes included in the Senate’s version of the Big Beautiful Bill.

Moderates are worried about changes to Medicaid’s provider tax—a key part of how individual states secure federal funding for their healthcare providers. Under current law, the federal government matches at least the amount in funding that states put up for Medicaid. By raising taxes on their own healthcare providers, states can force the government into high contributions and then pump the government’s match back to their medical providers, increasing their resources by getting the federal government to pick up more of the bill. Changes to provider tax could force lawmakers to reevaluate how they fund Medicaid at the state level. Moderates worry that smaller, rural hospitals could get overlooked.

Where the House version would have frozen the provider tax, the Senate version looks to scale back federal matching slightly.

Other highly divisive issues include state and local tax deductions (SALT) for income tax, rolling back green energy credits implemented by the Biden administration, language on a 10-year moratorium on state-based regulation of AI, and more.

From Congress to law

If everything goes according to GOP leadership’s plan, Congress will have delivered on one of the most far-reaching policy overhauls in recent memory in an ambitious timeline that few thought possible. The Fourth of July deadline is self-imposed and would not change the requirements for the bill’s passage.

While presidents can often experience political backlash in the midterm following their election, Republicans hope fulfilling many of the president’s top campaign promises—such as no tax on tips and no tax on overtime—will give them a winning hand next November.