Biden’s first-year blues

In his inauguration speech, President Joe Biden promised to reunite the American people. A year later, most Americans seem to agree on at least one thing: They don’t like what he’s done with the place.

Biden earned the approval of just 33 percent of respondents in a recent Quinnipiac University poll, and an analysis by FiveThirtyEight of several opinion polls suggested 41.7 percent approval. That’s slightly higher than former President Donald Trump’s approval rating at this point in his presidency but trails all other recent presidents.

The numbers follow a rocky first year for Biden, including a spotty record on foreign policy, COVID-19, his legislative agenda, and the economy. They also reflect sinking approval among Democrats and independents, some of whom say the president has not delivered on progressive agenda items. Public opinion could bounce back, but Biden’s current ratings don’t bode well for Democrats in upcoming midterm elections.

Gallup data show Republican approval of the president’s job performance has dropped from 11 percent to 5 percent, while independents’ approval has shrunk from 61 percent to 33 percent. Democrats’ approval has dropped to 82 percent, down from 98 percent a year ago. Gallup pinned the losses among independents on high COVID-19 case counts and the messy Afghanistan withdrawal.

Biden achieved several policy goals in his first year: The president signed a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill and a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package, and about 209 million Americans are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But his administration’s aggressive COVID-19 tactics have alienated some voters, and the Supreme Court just scuttled the president’s federal vaccine mandate for employees of large businesses. New COVID-19 variants contributed to case spikes that undermined Biden’s prediction of a return to normalcy by Christmas. Build Back Better, Biden’s $1.75 trillion social spending package, is stalled in Congress, and the outlook is bleak for his two voting bills. Neither Republicans nor Democrats were happy with the administration’s response to immigration surges at the southern border.

Foreign policy has been a particularly rough spot for the president. Although the administration brokered a defense deal with Australia and the United Kingdom, it left out France, angering an old ally. Biden stood by his decision to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan, but a rocky pullout and the Taliban’s rapid takeover left U.S. citizens and allies trapped after troops left. Now Biden is staring down a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine despite his threats of sanctions. 

Finally, the slumping economy has dinged the president’s popularity. While the unemployment rate fell below 4 percent in December, many have blamed the Biden administration’s high spending for inflation, which reached a nearly 40-year high in December at 7 percent. Surging gas prices late last year prompted people to place stickers on gas pumps with a photo of Biden and the caption, “I did that!”

Among Democrats, some of the slipping approval comes from the left flank as progressive pet projects falter. Biden has not made progress on canceling student loan debt, reforming policing, or hitting climate change goals. “People are feeling like they’re getting less than they bargained for when they put Biden in office,” Young Democrats of America head Quentin Wathum-Ocama said. “We need somebody who’s going to fight for our issues if we’re going to come out and turn out for him in ’22.”

Others think Democrats, including Biden, have swung too far left. A November ABC News/Washington Post poll found 62 percent of voters thought Democrats were out of touch with Americans’ concerns. Fifty-nine percent worried Biden will grow the government too much. In a recent speech, the president criticized voter ID requirements as a form of voter suppression, yet a July Monmouth University poll found 80 percent of Americans supported requiring a photo ID to vote.

With midterm elections coming up this year, Biden’s low approval ratings could threaten Democrats’ slim majority in Congress unless he can pull off some victories. “We are in a window right now,” Democratic strategist Krystal Knight said. “We’re in a unique legislative window where the president still has time to bring about some wins.”