Assessing Mike Johnson’s “narrow” reconciliation bill

Just in time for their August recess, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a budget resolution Wednesday that unlocks a $95 billion package focused on national defense, farmers, and elements of President Donald Trump’s prized voter ID bill. The framework’s passage could be a major win for House Republicans battling to keep their slim majority—but the Senate will decide whether it remains intact.

Following the vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., celebrated passing the legislative package, colloquially known as reconciliation 3.0. “This is obviously a consequential week for House Republicans, but it was a very consequential week for the American people,” he told reporters. “We delivered once again.”

For Johnson, getting the bill across the floor was no easy task. This is the House’s third reconciliation bill of the fiscal year, and the framework passed 216-214 largely along party lines. GOP Reps. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., voted against the bill, joined by Rep. Kevin Kiley, I-Calif. No Democratic lawmakers voted to adopt the resolution. The divide is due in part to the election-focused provision and funding for national defense amid the conflict in Iran. Reconciliation bills are filibuster-proof and only require a simple majority in the Senate—but considering the voter ID legislation didn’t receive even 50 Senate votes in June, division over these issues could grow.

Here’s what you need to know about the reconciliation 3.0:

What did it take to get here? Last week, Johnson broke down the legislative package following a meeting with Vice President J.D. Vance. He told reporters that, due to Democratic opposition on issues of election integrity and national defense, the legislation would be “narrow” and “streamlined.” But Democrats aren’t the only lawmakers who caused friction before the bill hit the House floor. John Kincaid, a government professor at Lafayette College in Easton, Pa., told me over email that reconciliation 3.0 faced challenges because “Republican conservatives say the bill’s price tag is too high.”

One such conservative, Rep. Davidson, issued a statement against the bill on Monday before the vote, arguing that the current framework would add to the government deficit without requiring Congress to implement spending reductions. “Washington’s deficit spending is out of control,” he wrote. “Congress should cut waste before asking taxpayers—or our children—to foot the bill.”

Over the last two weeks of June, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., alongside other GOP hard-liners and Democrats, prevented the House from voting on its legislative agenda by blocking a procedural rule. Luna’s objections surrounded the methods being used to pass the SAVE America Act, which she considered more vulnerable to being slashed in the Senate. Now, the election-focused legislation has joined the filibuster-proof budget bill, which Johnson on Wednesday called “Republicans’ best shot to get as much of the SAVE America Act into law as possible.”

What does reconciliation 3.0 include? In addition to the election-focused legislation, the budget bill includes supplemental funding for the Pentagon and farmers. It allocates ​​$73 billion to defense and intelligence funding, $12 billion to agriculture aid, and $10 billion toward incentivizing states to sign onto SAVE America Act provisions.

In a Senate Committee on Appropriations hearing on Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth estimated the cost of the Iran war at $37.5 billion and argued that, if the Pentagon does not receive further funding, it will have to curtail training. Hegseth has requested a total $1.5 trillion in 2027’s defense budget, but if reconciliation 3.0 passes, it would provide only a $60 billion chunk for the Pentagon.

How could this affect midterms? With the general election right around the corner, Johnson knows Republican representatives need to return home with something to show for their time on the Hill. “Tomorrow, House Republicans will return to their districts armed with a proven track record of success and in these new legislative victories,” Johnson told reporters after the vote.

While the legislation still has to make it through the Senate, Kincaid, the Lafayette College professor, wrote that certain aspects of the bill could certainly bolster GOP support among voters. He pointed to likely support for the measure’s supplemental aid for farmers affected by supply chain issues and trade policies, but warned of voters’ concerns about Iran war spending. “Rural voters are an important Republican constituency. Some Republicans would benefit from the voter-ID provision,” Kincaid wrote. “On balance, however, Republicans would be disadvantaged by passing $60 billion for defense because the Iran war is unpopular.”

What are the bill’s chances in the Senate? On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., signaled to reporters that reconciliation 3.0 is not the chamber’s top priority, instead suggesting that the budget resolution could be used to fund the government in a bind.

Kincaid calls the chances of the Senate simply approving the House bill about zero. “The Senate appears to be warming to the idea of a third reconciliation bill, but there is opposition within Republican ranks to various parts of the House bill, including the voter-ID provision,” he said. He also noted that the vote could be disrupted by GOP senators such as Bill Cassidy, R-La., and John Cornyn, R-Texas, who might oppose the administration-focused agenda items after losing their primaries to Trump-endorsed candidates.

Regardless of what happens with reconciliation 3.0, the House may have a plan for another filibuster-proof package. At the Hill Nation Summit last week, House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., said that the budget bill primarily served as a vehicle for the House to pass the SAVE America Act, but that House GOP members still have other priorities they hope to address. While no legislation has been drafted yet, another reconciliation bill would make this the first Congress to enact four such measures in one fiscal year.

“No one thought we could get to reconciliation 3.0, and we think we’re gonna get through it and now all of a sudden we’re talking about reconciliation 4.0,” said McClain.