An Islamist group with Mali in its crosshairs

Long lines of cars and motorcycles have been the norm outside fuel stations in Bamako, the capital of Mali, in recent weeks. Last month, some drivers sat in queues for days, hoping to get a little gasoline.

Fuel has become scarce in the region since the Islamist militia Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) began staging a blockade in September. In Bamako, fuel prices soared by more than 500%, from $6.25 to $32.50 per gallon. Power outages are common, and the crisis has increased the cost of food, transportation, and other necessities.

JNIM fighters have attacked and closed off highways that tankers use to deliver fuel from Senegal and Ivory Coast to the landlocked country of some 20 million people. Social media platforms in Mali circulated videos showing rows of oil tankers burning on a highway. Analysts say the militia’s aggressive tactic has revealed the ruling military junta’s weakness and the concerning growth of the al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group that appears bent on seizing control of the entire country.

“The goods we used to get easily are no longer easily accessible due to the lack of transportation,” Amadou Traoré, a trader at a Bamako market, told the BBC. “For those of us who sell food products, the fuel shortage makes access to supplies difficult.”

JNIM, known in English as the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, began in Mali as a merger of four jihadist groups in 2017 and has since increased its influence throughout the country and the larger Sahel region, frequently attacking industrial sites, aid workers, and foreign employees. In September, JNIM jihadists abducted an Iranian and two Emirati citizens from the vicinity of Bamako. According to sources close to the hostage negotiations, the terror group released the victims for a ransom of at least $50 million. On Nov. 6, gunmen abducted five Indians working on an electrification project near Kobri, a town in western Mali, although the kidnappers have not said if they belong to JNIM.

According to conflict monitor ACLED, JNIM is the Sahelian branch of the transnational al-Qaeda organization and the most active armed group in the region. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, has voiced “deep concern over the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the country.”

Several nations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, have urged their citizens to evacuate Mali. The country’s ruling junta also ordered schools nationwide to shut down for a two week-period that ended in November.

Illia Djadi, senior analyst on Africa at Open Doors International, said JNIM has long held captive smaller provinces of the country. But this is the first time it has used the tactic on the capital city, he said, which places increasing pressure on the military government to negotiate or respond with greater force. “But of course military juntas cannot negotiate with terrorist groups,” he added.

When coup leader Assimi Goita led soldiers to seize control of Mali in 2020, the military promised to defeat the armed group and numerous others that had been on the rise in the country.

JNIM began blocking oil tankers after the military government in Bamako banned small-scale fuel sales in all rural areas—usually sold in plastic cans. American Enterprise Institute analysts from the Critical Threats Project believe that the government instituted the ban to thwart JNIM fuel smuggling operations in the region.

A former Malian diplomat, Iyad Ag Ghali, leads JNIM. According to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Ghali has stated that the group is working to “expand its presence across West Africa and train militants to fight against the group’s enemies while appeasing local communities by giving them material resources and signing local agreements.”

Djadi compared the jihadist push to a cancer, noting that the JNIM offensive has spread to Burkina Faso, Niger, and parts of northern Benin and Togo.

In 2023, the United Nations Security Council approved the complete withdrawal of a 15,000-soldier peacekeeping force from Mali after the junta asked it to leave.

Djadi said the current situation is the culmination of a major humanitarian crisis and an existential threat to Christians and minority groups in the Sahel region. “Mali and Burkina Faso [are] the arrowheads of this latest global epicenter of jihadism,” he said.

The Malian junta’s cooperation with Russia has also failed to address the insurgency, Djadi said. He likened JNIM’s offensive to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 and the Syrian regime’s collapse in 2024. 

Mali’s Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop, speaking to reporters at the Bamako Expo in November, rejected claims that the jihadists were close to seizing the capital city. He called such fears “far-fetched’’ and asserted JNIM was no match for Mali’s armed forces.

Some fuel stations and schools reopened in Bamako on Nov. 10. “The children went to school this morning, but I remain concerned,” one parent in Bamako, Salif Traoré, told the Associated Press. And last week, 82 fuel tankers arrived at Bamako with heavily armed escorts after a three-week journey from Niger.

According to Djadi, the situation in Mali doesn’t yet match the scale of the crisis in nearby Nigeria, where Christians continue to experience violent persecution. Yet it remains part of a growing problem for the Sahel region.

“This issue goes beyond Mali, and it is important the world pays attention,” Djadi said.