Alaskans assess two Dan Sullivans and an unusual voting system

Thousands of miles from Washington, D.C., in a state whose population is just under 740,000, a fight for congressional majority is taking place—and a dispute over an unusual candidacy.

Incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, are the front-runners in the battleground race for one of Alaska’s U.S. Senate seats. Both candidates have name recognition, but for Sullivan, that’s proved an unexpected problem this year. A second Dan Sullivan—a former teacher and registered Republican running with no party affiliation—also made it on the midterm ballot.

On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that Peltola’s campaign aides concocted a plan to recruit the second Dan Sullivan into a Senate race—confirming what the Trump administration has called foul play on several occasions. But since Alaska courts ruled the candidacy legitimate earlier this year, it is unclear what the latest revelations will do. The contentious situation has drawn attention to Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, under which the second Sullivan advanced with 2.5% of the primary vote in August. On Nov. 3, Alaskans will not only decide whether to reelect incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, they’ll decide whether to repeal their 4-year-old voting system as well.

“I am very concerned about the Dan S. Sullivan Race for the U.S. Senate in Alaska in that it is totally confusing,” wrote President Donald Trump in a Truth Social post last week. “We are looking at powerful legal options to remove the fraudulent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. from the Ballot.”

The next day, the Department of Justice filed a 14-page lawsuit against Alaska, alleging voter confusion and calling on the state to potentially intervene. The DOJ seeks to block certification of the state’s U.S. Senate election results if votes cast for the former teacher could change the outcome and cost the incumbent Republican the race. On Monday, Alaska’s Division of Elections asked the court to dismiss the case, arguing that it has no legal basis.

The Division of Elections declined to comment on whether Wednesday’s news will impact the case.

Dan J. Sullivan Jr., the non-incumbent, told me in a Friday email following the DOJ suit, “This morning’s news was a surprise to me and I will need some time to understand what it means.” He did not immediately respond to my follow up question after Wednesday’s news surrounding his recruitment by Peltola’s campaign.

For those who have followed Alaska’s Senate race, this legal battle may look familiar. Earlier this year, Republicans accused Dan J. Sullivan Jr. of intentionally joining the race to confuse voters, and the Alaska Division of Elections initially rejected his candidacy, leading to a back-and-forth in court. Ultimately, the state’s Supreme Court kept Dan J. Sullivan Jr. on the primary ballot. Barring a last-minute change, his name will appear alongside Sen. Dan S. Sullivan’s on the general election ballot, with the latter marked “incumbent.”

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election prediction newsletter, does not foresee the DOJ lawsuit having a significant effect on the race. He argued that while the second Sullivan may be an annoyance to the incumbent, the courts have already permitted Dan J. Sullivan Jr. to remain in the race.

“There are all sorts of things in politics that you would describe as dirty tricks, but that aren’t illegal,” said Kondik. “Sometimes the big parties will try to help third-party candidates get on the ballot. If you’re on the wrong side of that, I could see why you’d be upset, and I could see why Sen. Sullivan would be upset. But again, that doesn’t necessarily make it illegal … it was adjudicated in Alaska.”

Originally, two Democrats were slated for the general election. But soon after the August primary, Peltola’s Democratic opponent, fourth-place finisher David Leslie, dropped out of the race. Leslie’s vacancy created an opening for Gerald Heikes, a Republican candidate, who is also on the ballot along with the two Sullivans.

Jim Minnery, president of Alaska Family Council, a nonprofit Christian public policy organization, worries that under Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, this could affect Republicans’ chances. In Alaska’s general election, voters will order the candidates by preference, and whoever receives the most first-choice votes wins. If no one candidate receives 50% of first-choice votes, then the candidate with the least votes is eliminated, and election officials recount using the second-choice votes of that candidate’s supporters. This continues until one candidate reaches a majority.

Alaska adopted ranked choice voting in 2020, but now a ballot measure aimed at repealing this system is going before the state’s constituents. Currently only Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting for statewide elections.

“I’d love to see [ranked choice voting] go away,” said Minnery. “It’s caused a lot of havoc.”

Juli Lucky, executive director of the nonprofit Alaskans for Better Elections, says the current system suits the state’s unique electorate. Before its statehood in 1959, Alaska opted to use a “blanket primary” where voters could select any candidate, regardless of party, who made it onto the ballot. The system faced some legal challenges and slight alterations, but remained largely intact until the U.S. Supreme Court ruled California’s blanket primary unconstitutional in 2000.

After the Supreme Court ruling, Alaskans began voting based on parties. But Lucky says the years using the blanket primary influenced the amount of non-party affiliated voters within Alaska’s electorate. According to a 2020 report by Alaska’s Division of Elections, undeclared and nonpartisan voters make up more than half of the state’s electorate.

“So when you look at how Alaskans have done elections and how we interact with the system, I think that you can see why kind of rank choice voting and that the non-partisan open primary that we have fit the history of how Alaskans like to vote,” said Lucky.

According to Wednesday’s New York Times report, Alaska’s nonpartisan primary enabled Dan J. Sullivan to proceed to the general election by bypassing traditional vetting from the major parties. But regardless of where the state’s voting system goes, Minnery says Alaska’s demographics provide another unique opportunity.

“It’s a small state population-wise, so it’s easy to have a large impact. Because there’s just not a lot of people and you can get to know the legislators and the influencers pretty easily,” said Minnery. “So it’s been a joy to have this be a passion and also something we feel is really necessary in terms of getting the body of Christ engaged in the public marketplace of ideas.”

When it comes to election season, Alaska Family Council uses its influence to equip the state’s pastors to speak on cultural issues that intersect with biblical truths, and creates voting guides to educate the electorate on each candidate’s stance on matters of life, religious liberty, sanctity of marriage, and parental rights.

“Every election cycle, we try to put together a list of questions that are very specific to our mission,” said Minnery. “But what we’re really trying to do is tell the Christians in the state of Alaska, and even those who aren’t Christian … how these candidates stand on different issues that are culturally relevant.”

For candidates who don’t fill out Alaska Family Council’s questionnaire, Minnery indicated he looks at campaign endorsements from organizations like Planned Parenthood.

While Peltola has received Planned Parenthood endorsements in the past, a dispute with the local chapter could be behind its lack of support for her Senate campaign this year. However, Peltola’s stance on abortion remains the same, according to a June statement from her campaign. The rest of Peltola’s platform, represented with the slogan “Fish, Family, Freedom,” encompasses Alaska-focused proposals for affordability issues, energy, military support, and government accountability.

Minnery said Sen. Dan. Sullivan has been a strong ally on the issues prioritized by Alaska Family Council, such as protecting families and unborn babies. The senator’s campaign website also emphasizes his experience in foreign policy and advocacy for a strong national defense as well as his service on military, commerce, environment, and veterans’ affairs committees in Congress.

Just days ahead of the midterms, Alaskan voters have much to decide. Peltola would be the first Alaska Native to serve as a U.S. senator from the state, but it remains to be seen whether Alaska’s unique voter base will turn out for a Democratic candidate. Trump won about 55% of the Alaskan vote in the 2024 presidential election.

“Alaska is ultimately a Republican-leaning state and it’s possible that we’ll have a blue wave environment nationally, but Republicans may be able to hold the Senate, just because some of these key states that’ll decide the majority are clearly Republican-leaning states,” said Kondik. “And Alaska is in that group.”