Abortion at the ballot box

As pro-lifers approach Election Day, their eyes are on Ohio, where voters will cast ballots on a measure that would add a right to abortion to the state constitution. But even though Ohio’s Issue 1 is the only abortion-related measure on ballots this year, pro-life groups are watching races in several key states that could affect abortion laws now that legislators have more leeway to protect unborn life.

Kelsey Pritchard, director of state public affairs for Susan B. Anthony Pro-life America, said that in addition to Ohio, her organization will pay close attention to results in Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania. Here’s a rundown of the critical races in those four states and what’s at stake for unborn babies.

Virginia General Assembly

Every seat in the Virginia General Assembly will be on Tuesday’s ballot. Many candidates are campaigning on abortion, recognizing that a shift in the balance of power could bring changes in the state abortion laws. Democrats currently hold the Senate, blocking efforts to protect unborn life. Meanwhile, efforts to bring a pro-abortion amendment before voters are currently at a standstill, thanks to the Republican control in the House.

Pro-lifers in this race are gunning for a Senate takeover, touting protections for babies after 15 weeks—the point at which some evidence shows they can feel pain—as a reasonable goal supported by a majority of Virginia voters. “There is no ban,” says an ad sponsored by the Republican-funded political action committee Spirit of Virginia. “Virginia Republicans support a reasonable 15-week limit with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”

Meanwhile, Virginia Democrats claimed in an August ad that Republicans want a total abortion ban with no exceptions that would put “women and doctors in jail.”

Because pro-life lawmakers in Congress have focused their efforts on protections for unborn babies at 15 weeks, activists on both sides of the issue expect Virginia’s results to indicate how abortion will affect the 2024 elections. “If the Democrats aren’t able to recapture the House in this election, that will be a clear indication that abortion is not their silver bullet that they have portrayed it to be,” said SBA Pro-Life America’s Pritchard.

Meanwhile, Virginia Society for Human Life president Olivia Gans Turner said she doesn’t believe a failure in this election will mean pro-lifers need a new legislative strategy. She’s confident in polling that suggests a majority of Virginians support protecting babies who can feel pain from abortion. Turner believes a loss would just mean pro-life lawmakers need more funding and better messaging.

“The pro-aborts, because of the amount of money that they have, have turned [the bill] into an issue of a 15-week ban, ‘ban’ being the operative word,” Turner said. “If pro-abort candidates succeed, and we can’t get control of the General Assembly, they will have won the messaging because that word resonates so negatively with Americans in general.”

Kentucky governor

In Kentucky, the state’s current Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a Republican, is running for Democrat Andy Beshear’s spot in the governor’s mansion. Both candidates have labored during the campaign to set themselves apart from one another on the abortion issue, signaling that the abortion views of Kentucky voters—who last year surprisingly rejected a pro-life constitutional amendment—could play a role in the outcome.

In debates, Cameron claimed Beshear wants taxpayer-funded abortions without limits. He highlighted the Democrat’s veto of a bill protecting babies after 15 weeks of gestation. In 2017, as attorney general, Beshear also refused to defend in court his state’s law protecting babies from abortion after 20 weeks. Meanwhile, Cameron went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court to gain permission to defend his state’s ban on dismemberment abortions. Beshear slammed Cameron for celebrating the state’s law that protects unborn babies throughout pregnancy, attacking his history of opposing exceptions for rape and incest.

But in recent weeks, Cameron has indicated he would be open to signing a bill allowing abortions in those cases. Addia Wuchner, executive director for the Kentucky Right to Life Association, said this shift has concerned some pro-life voters. But she stands by him. “The Daniel Cameron that we know, who’s been 100 percent pro-life, is still the same person,” she said. “I know the extreme pressure that he is under in this all-stakes race.”

In contrast, Wuchner described Beshear as “100 percent pro-death, pro-abortion.” While she doesn’t believe a reelected Beshear would be able to repeal the state’s strong protections for unborn babies given the Republican supermajority in the legislature, Wuchner fears a future legal challenge against the law. “We need a governor that will stand with the values of the people of Kentucky and stand with the laws of Kentucky,” she said.

Mississippi governor and attorney general

Running for reelection are incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves—who signed several pro-life bills into law earlier this year—and Attorney General Lynn Fitch—whose office called for the overturn of Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case out of Mississippi. While these races are unlikely to hinge on the abortion issue, the future of Mississippi’s pro-life policies could be on the line if Reeves or Fitch loses.

The governor’s race in Mississippi has become unexpectedly tight in recent months, with some polls showing Democratic challenger Brandon Presley—second cousin of musician Elvis Presley—trailing only one point behind Reeves. Both candidates tout their opposition to abortion in strongly pro-life Mississippi.

But AFA Action director of policy and legislative affairs Jameson Taylor said a closer look at Presley’s campaign should make pro-life voters concerned about a possible Democratic victory. His campaign received $55,000 from Karla Jurvetson, a board member of the pro-abortion political action committee EMILYs List. “I’m thinking, wait a minute,” Taylor said. “What does EMILYs List know that we Mississippi voters don’t know?” Other pro-abortion groups have also supported Presley’s campaign, leading Taylor to believe Presley would “unwind Mississippi’s strong pro-life laws,” if elected.

Unlike Presley, Fitch’s challenger, Greta Kemp Martin, is running on a pro-abortion platform. According to Mississippi Today, anger about the Dobbs decision motivated Martin to challenge Fitch in this election. “At that point, I knew Lynn Fitch had to be taken down,” she said.

But Taylor expects Fitch to defeat Martin easily. He points to the attorney general’s strong pro-life messaging, which he says should be a model to other pro-life politicians. In campaign materials, Fitch has championed endorsements from pro-life groups and describes her track record as one that is “leading the nation to empower women and promote life.”

“Voters appreciate that,” Taylor said. “And they’re going to support her come election day.”

Pennsylvania Supreme Court

The outcome of the race to fill the vacant seat on the state’s liberal-majority Supreme Court will not shift the balance of power on the bench. But it will still have a long-term effect on the court, where justices serve 10-year terms. Out of the four Democrats on the court, three hold seats that will be up for grabs in 2025.

The state now awaits a ruling in a major abortion case. In Allegheny Reproductive Health Center v. Pennsylvania Department of Human Services, abortion providers argued the state constitution guarantees a right to taxpayer funded abortion. The court heard the case in October 2022 but has not yet released a decision.

In his campaign ads, Daniel McCaffery has been an outspoken critic of “attack[s]” on “women’s reproductive rights,” championing his position as the only candidate to receive Planned Parenthood’s endorsement. Planned Parenthood even launched a six-figure digital ad campaign to highlight Republican candidate Carolyn Carluccio’s potential pro-life leanings, pointing out previous life-affirming language on her website and the endorsement she received from the Pennsylvania Pro-Life Federation. “I think there’s a perception in the Democratic Party that they have an edge when it comes to abortion,” said Jeremy Samek, senior counsel with the Pennsylvania Family Institute.

Carluccio has been quiet about her views on abortion, saying she believes judges should put their personal views aside when considering cases. But in a recent NBC10 interview, she also said Pennsylvania law is clear that women can access abortion in the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. “That’s the law I’m going to apply. I don’t see that changing.”

Samek and other pro-lifers in the state fear a ruling in the Allegheny case could go beyond the existing law and manipulate the state constitution itself. “There’s definitely a concern that the Democrats on the court could invent a right to abortion, utilizing this case as a vehicle,” Samek said. “So that would be a huge step back in protecting the health of women, protecting the lives of [the] unborn.”