A Graham-branded Russian sanctions bill picks up speed

In the halls of the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fielded questions from reporters on a trade restrictions bill that is vital to his country’s yearslong war with Russia.

“Sanctions pressure on Russia is very important,” Zelenskyy said amid a throng of Republican and Democratic senators. “It’s not all about money. … It’s also a big signal to Europe, a big signal to Ukraine, and big support for our people. So I’m very thankful, I’m very hopeful. God bless, we will have positive results.”

Moments later, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., announced that senators had reached the majority needed to push the bill through a procedural vote. “It’s gonna pass,” Shaheen said, flashing a thumbs up toward Zelenskyy.

The legislation, recently renamed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, passed the Senate procedural vote 86-12 on Tuesday, moments after Zelenskyy’s address. The late Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., formally introduced the bill in April 2025, alongside co-sponsor Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. In the year since, the legislation stalled over skepticism regarding effective sanction implementation and a tariff provision that some lawmakers argue lends too much authority to President Donald Trump.

But with the sudden death of the sanctions bill’s key leader earlier this month, the legislation has perhaps unexpectedly picked up new momentum. It’s now teed up for further debate and potential final passage in the upper chamber before the Senate’s monthlong recess.

Sen. Blumenthal on Wednesday told MS NOW he thought Trump would support the sanctions legislation. “One of Sen. Graham’s last shining accomplishments was, in effect, to persuade President Trump that it is in his interest, and in our national interest, to support Ukraine by imposing these crushing sanctions and tariffs on purchases of Russian oil and gas,” he said.

Graham died suddenly from a heart problem on July 11 just hours after signaling momentum for the sanctions he’d been crafting in his 10th, and final, trip to Ukraine. His funeral on Tuesday drew world leaders and fellow senators to the Washington National Cathedral. His sister, Darline Graham Nordone, will complete the rest of his term and run for reelection with Trump’s endorsement.

Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in South Carolina, said that Graham’s death, and his final work, kept the bill at the forefront of senators’ and the president’s minds.

“Graham’s passing probably has had a pretty important impact on the president being more excited about sanctions,” said Vinson. “[Trump] has had times where he was willing to ignore or give latitude to [Russian President] Vladimir Putin, even as it relates to Ukraine. He’s had times where he’s been frustrated with Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians. But I think, ultimately, he’s gotten enough pressure within the administration and from Congress that he can’t completely abandon Ukraine.”

Following his 2024 presidential win, Trump began pushing for an end to the war sparked by Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He called for the two nations to negotiate a deal and told reporters in a tense meeting with Zelenskyy in February 2025, “If I didn’t align myself with both of them, you’d never have a deal.”

But by September, Trump announced that he was ready to enact major sanctions on Russia. He signaled support for Graham’s bill just before the senator’s death this month—adding Wednesday that he would like lawmakers to include tariffs for Iran in the text.

The bill, which already includes a section on tariffs, would mark the first time Congress has authorized tariff use explicitly as a geopolitical weapon. But it is not a first for Russian sanctions.

The Magnitsky Act in 2012 enacted the first major sanctions targeting post-Soviet Russian entities and officials, placing visa sanctions and asset freezes on individuals responsible for human rights abuses. Since then, Congress and the European Union have enacted many similar penalties aimed at depriving the Kremlin of revenue.

Simon Johnson, a British American economist and professor of entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, said Graham’s Russia sanctions bill is more comprehensive than previous measures. Johnson said the bill targets Russia’s revenue by cracking down on the country’s illicit oil transport network, known as the shadow fleet, and by enabling Trump to apply 100% tariffs on imports from the top five major purchasers of Russian crude oil and natural gas.

“I met Lindsay Graham ... in some hearings. And he’s always struck me as somebody who wanted to go deep on issues and really dig down,” said Johnson. “He spent a lot of time on Ukraine working with Ukrainians … so I think what you’ve got here is a very well-researched and thought-through focus on removing revenue from the Russians. … If you remove their hard currency or dollar revenue, that’s going to have a major impact on their war-fighting ability.”

Peter Harrell, a visiting scholar at Georgetown Law and an international economics attorney, says sanctions aren’t the entire solution for ending the conflict but can be an effective tool for putting pressure on Russia.

Harrel pointed to examples from the first Trump administration, in which U.S. sanctions on Iran successfully reduced oil exports from the country by around 80%, according to trade data. Harrel calls that a “very large win” but said it illustrates the likely upper limit of what’s achievable by sanctions alone.

Countries could choose to circumvent financial sanctions through barter, or by using another currency or crypto, but Johnson said countries will likely avoid doing that. Typical U.S. sanctions’ structure and implementation pressures countries to remove their entire economy from the dollar system, which means not getting paid in dollars by anyone for anything.

“There are always going to be people who try to break the rules,” said Harrel. “The question is always going to be … can you reduce the scale of the evasion and of the rule-breaking to get it down to a level where you are still achieving your overall objective?”

The Graham sanctions bill has to get through several amendment votes before heading back to the House of Representatives for final passage. A small group of lawmakers, including one Republican and 11 Democratic senators who voted against the measure Tuesday, oppose the legislation over its tariff provisions. But while the path forward is not guaranteed, experts agreed the pieces appear to be coming into place.

Vinson said that because the bill includes tariffs, Trump’s preferred enforcement mechanism, it fits into the kinds of tactics the president is comfortable with.

“If you’ve got a president who’s willing to actually enforce it, and it sounds like Congress is giving him the tools to enforce it, then I think it stands a better chance of being effective,” said Vinson. “And at least for now, [Trump’s] willing to be a little tougher on Putin, a little friendlier towards the Ukrainians.”

Harrel added that Graham deserved some credit for wooing the president. “[Trump] sees Ukraine winning and wants to be backing the winner more here. … I think that Graham had obviously been working on him for a long time, to try to win Trump over.”