A familiar face and a blank page

Since announcing her bid for the Oval Office, Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic Party presidential nominee, has only done one non-scripted interview. In a 30-minute sit-down with CNN last week, interviewer Dana Bash split the questions between Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

As the country approaches Tuesday’s debate, the first between the two parties’ nominees, analysts know what to expect from former President Donald Trump on the debate stage. As a fixture of American politics for almost 10 years now, Trump’s style and mannerisms are old news. But experts aren’t sure how Vice President Kamala Harris will try to steal the spotlight—not an easy feat against the veteran, three-time presidential candidate. Will she try to match Trump’s tone? Or will she try to set herself apart and adopt an even-keeled alternative, focused on the policy specifics?

Either way, Patrick A. Stewart, a professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, believes Harris has more at stake than her opponent.

“Kamala Harris is pretty much a blank page for a lot of people, with the exception of the insiders, certainly in Washington, D.C.,” Stewart said. “But the general public, this is their opportunity to see her in a relatively unmediated situation to see how she responds to a candidate that attacks her. Will she remain cool under stress?”

The 90-minute presidential debate is set for Tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia, Pa.

Polling put out by CNN in partnership with SSRS Research on Wednesday morning shows an increasingly close race. Harris leads Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin by six percentage points and by five in Michigan. Trump has a five-point edge in Arizona. In Georgia and Nevada, Harris leads Trump 48-47 and in Pennsylvania, the two are dead even at 47 percent.

That’s three states—and 41 electoral votes—within the margin of error.

But Craig Hennigan, interim professor of debate communication at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, says that presidential debates rarely move the needle in a meaningful way.

“Only about 10 percent of the people who are watching it are actually undecided, and only about 10 percent of those actually come to a decision as a result of those debates,” Hennigan said. “So, you’re talking about a subset of a subset of people who are actually influenced by the debate.”

Instead, he believes what Harris is looking for is a key moment she can use on the campaign trail to fend off attacks from Republicans that have criticized her for rarely straying away from the teleprompter.

“[That’s] what you’re looking for for a candidate to do in that type of debate, which is to create a moment that the media will latch onto that they will replay over and over,” Hennigan said. He wants to see something natural, something off-the-cuff.

To do just that, Stewart, the professor out of Arkansas, believes Harris should rely on her prosecutorial skillset as the former attorney general of California. He pointed to her past debates in the 2019 Democratic presidential primary and her later debate against former Vice President Mike Pence where she used storytelling and concrete examples to drive home her points.

Keeping an even tone against Trump won’t be easy, but it may be her only way to contrast her messaging with Trump’s ability to dominate a stage.

“Donald Trump is exceptional when it comes to nonverbal communication,” Stewart said, adding that Trump can “connect with the audience.”

Stewart believes that taking on Trump’s long-established brand with her own display of aggressiveness would be a critical mistake for Harris, especially because that tactic is a familiar one. With so much past media exposure for the former president, this debate will likely add little new information about Trump himself.

“Donald Trump has been a national figure since at least the 1980s, when I was reading Spy magazine out of New York City about this playboy who was living the high life,” Stewart said. “Even if you weren’t in New York, you knew about Donald Trump.”

Three presidential campaigns, a term in the Oval Office, a felony conviction, and even an assassination attempt have only increased Trump’s media familiarity.

While Harris won’t likely try to appeal directly to her voter base as she did during her Democratic National Convention speech, Hennigan believes Democrats across the country are still trying to figure Harris out.

On one hand, she has yet to set her own concrete policy ideals on controversial areas like the southern border or how she would end conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. But beyond that, the debate also presents a window for Harris to show up for Democrats with lingering questions of how she became the leader of their party in the first place.

“She has to prove to the American people not only that she is the better candidate but also that she deserves to be in that spot,” Hennigan said.

He pointed out that a section of the party may still feel lingering hesitancies about candidate alternatives.

“Remember, she is the first person in a long time that is in this spot without having a primary election for her to get voted in,” Hennigan said. “And some voters are probably going to be taking a look at that [and asking], ‘Did the DNC make the right choice?’”