Waiting it out

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 21st of April.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

First up: The latest on the war with Iran.

On Sunday, U.S. Marines captured an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. It’s the first time the U.S. blockade has been challenged.

SOUND: [Helicopter]

Meanwhile, talks continue ahead of Wednesday’s deadline to extend the ceasefire or resume fighting.

Joining us now, Alex Vetanka. He's a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a leading voice on Iranian regional security. Alex, thanks for joining us this morning.

ALEX VATANKA: It's great to be back with you. Good morning.

EICHER: In your most recent policy memo, Alex, you described an economy in Iran under severe strain, sanctions, inflation, now war damage. How weak is Iran right now in real terms?

VATANKA: So look, based on the information that the Islamic Republic officials are putting out themselves, this war has cost the economy about $270 billion. That's roughly 50% of the GDP of the country. So pretty significant if you put that next to, for example, what this war has cost the United States in real terms. So this is not a small affair for the regime in Tehran. And the big question is, how is that reality shaping their sort of next steps going forward as we wait and see if diplomacy is going to have a chance to succeed or not? Because obviously, certainly in this case for Iran, the stakes are great when you look at the economic metric and it could get even worse.

REICHARD: Alex, do you think we're looking at a system near breaking then, given what you just said, or one that can keep on functioning?

VATANKA: I've been in this business for so long now, I have to be very careful predicting the demise of the Islamic Republic. But look, it is true that the regime is not popular with its own people. But it's also an entrenched regime. And this war has proven that beyond doubt, that you cannot just, you know, attack it from the air and it collapses. So it has a capacity to fight on another round of war. That's certainly what they think they can do. But looking down the path long term, we have to recognize this is a regime that long time ago lost the Iranian people.

This is a regime that's in power just because it represses its people to stay in power. And there's a huge question mark of how long you can keep doing that. Certainly when you have external pressures as well on top of all these domestic issues that the regime has had to deal with and frankly has failed to tackle properly in a way that reduces anger in Iranian society because the anger is still there and the regime doesn't seem to have any solutions.

REICHARD: If you had to crystallize it in a single sentence, Alex, what explains Iran's resilience?

VATANKA: This is about their survival. They really don't have anywhere to go. I mean, if you look at, you know, if you want to make the comparisons to 1979 and the Shah of Iran, when he was in that similar situation with a lot of pressure on him, he decided that you didn't want to fight on. But he had an option to leave the country and he did. They have nowhere to go.

EICHER: We talked about the naval blockade just a moment ago, and you wrote, Alex, that “the impact of that blockade will depend heavily,” I'm quoting here, “on enforcement and international compliance. The key question is not whether pressure exists. The key question is whether it can be made decisive.” What would have to go right for it to be decisive in your mind?

VATANKA: Well, look, so much of this is about patience, essentially. United States, certainly President Trump has been on with the sort of impression that he could have a quick victory in Iran, that he could put the pressure on and they will cave in. I think fundamentally that's been a mistaken belief, that this regime is more likely to stay and essentially even be willing to fight on if necessary, unless they can get a diplomatic compromise that they can live with.

But if, let's just say for sake of argument, the U.S. is willing to be patient, to stay the campaign on the economy for weeks and months to come. Then you're raising other issues. For example, the real fact that Iran's single most important trading partner is China. What would you do with Chinese tankers or ships going into Iranian ports? Would you stop them if United States Navy or other countries? And what about assets that the U.S. Navy has to deploy in places like the Indian Ocean?

So it raises lots of issues in terms of the determination of this White House to sort of finish the job, if you will, because you can do that. But it requires time, investment, and focus on that mission that we haven't necessarily seen so far in how the U.S. has conducted this war.

EICHER: So this really comes down to a question of who can last. Tehran essentially betting it can outlast the U.S. politically. Is that essentially the case as you see it, that it's just a matter of who has the will to go the distance?

VATANKA: Unfortunately, that seems to be where the Iranians are at right now. And the simple reality also is that this is a regime that is willing to, if you will, I don't want to be draconian about it, but lay waste to the country of Iran just to prove the point to Donald Trump that he can’t strong arm him into a deal they don't want. So yeah, in some ways the Iranian regime feels they have everything to gain if they can prevail, stay in this longer than Americans, they consider to be far less patient in terms of how long they're willing to stay in this world.

REICHARD: Alex Vetanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a leading voice on Iranian regional security. Alex, thanks so much.

VATANKA: A pleasure to be with you. Thank you.

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