Survival as victory

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NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 12th of May.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. 

Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: And I’m Lindsay Mast. 

First up on The World and Everything in It…an unravelling ceasefire.

President Trump on Sunday announced Iran’s latest terms for peace are—his words—“totally unacceptable.”

Meanwhile, American forces disabled two Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to bypass the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What does it mean for bringing the war to an end?

EICHER: Joining us now is Joe Truzman. He's a Senior Research Analyst and editor of the Long War Journal at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Joe, good morning.

JOE TRUZMAN: Good morning.

EICHER: Well, President Trump is saying that the truce between the U.S. and Iran is on life support. We read that Iran’s latest counterproposal reportedly includes demands for war reparations, sanctions relief, even recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

So Joe, listening to this from Tehran, right now, does this sound to you like a regime that's negotiating from weakness? Or do you think that the regime, whatever it is, believes it has survived the worst and come out stronger?

TRUZMAN: Right. I think right now what the Iranian regime is attempting to project is strength. Their goal, more than anything, is to survive the war, and that's what they did. So in their view, is that they won. So they are trying to project this strength, and we're seeing it through these negotiations. 

Now the big question is, what happens? Who is going to effectively blink first? Is it the United States, or will the regime, whoever is running it right now, are they going to capitulate and say, "Okay, we're going to give up the nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles and support for our proxy networks in the region"?

We just don't know that yet.

EICHER: So to be clear, you don't think this is a bluff. You think they really do feel good about where they are right now?

TRUZMAN: Absolutely, I think they do feel that way. But is that reality? Are they making the right choices to ensure that its survival? I don't think they are, alright. 

Nevertheless, the way they see it, I think they are--they believe they are in the position, in a position of strength. And why is that? Well, they read the newspapers just like we do. They see that gas prices, for example, are going up, that there is pressure on the Trump administration to end this war, and these are just a few examples. 

So they are leveraging these examples, and I think in some effect, it is working, but for now, we just don't know again, who is going to blink first in the standoff.

MAST: Well, Joe, even during this ceasefire there are still drone attacks, naval tensions near Hormuz, and sporadic strikes involving Iranian proxies. And meanwhile, oil markets are reacting as if the region could slide right back into a broader conflict. 

So if President Trump is right about the ceasefire really being on “life support,” then what does the next escalation actually look like? What is the most worrisome to you?

TRUZMAN: Right. I think the most worrisome is that we continue to see attacks against Arab countries in the region, the UAE, for example, and of course, missile strikes against Israel. Once we start seeing those type of actions by Iran, I think the ceasefire will be officially dead. And we've already started to see some of that, especially drone attacks against the UAE. 

So I think the next days are going to be really telling. I think there is a high chance of conflict in the coming days—perhaps weeks.

EICHER: I want to get into some of your area of greatest expertise and say that Israel has badly degraded the infrastructure of Hezbollah over the past couple of years, yet Hezbollah remains active, and Iran keeps insisting that Lebanon be folded into any of these broader talks. And you wrote Tehran's top priority is preserving Hezbollah, and made the argument Iran wants this ceasefire partly to give Hezbollah some breathing room. 

So where does Hezbollah stand right now?

TRUZMAN: I think right now, Hezbollah, even though it has been degraded, I think what we're seeing and what we've been observing over the last few months is basically the truth that it still has the ability to fight the Israelis. 

Now, the way Tehran sees things, it wants Hezbollah to regenerate. It wants Hezbollah to reorganize, it needs to preserve its top proxy in the region. So of course it's trying to fold Lebanon or Hezbollah into this ceasefire agreement. But nevertheless, I think Hezbollah still has a lot of fight in it. Any fighting between the Israelis and Hezbollah can continue, I think, for months on end unfortunately. 

So I think we need a peace in that area, but right now, more than anything, I don't see Hezbollah being weakened to the point that it can't fight the Israelis. And we're seeing it every day with the propaganda videos published by Hezbollah and other items. So the northern arena in Israel and southern Lebanon, of course, is becoming a hot topic, and has, continues to see this escalating conflict in this part of the region.

MAST: Well, let's turn to the Iranian people themselves. What can you tell us about how supported they are in throwing off this oppressive regime?

TRUZMAN: Right, so I think this is important. Iranian media, especially those that are connected to the Iranian regime, I've observed over the last, especially the last few months, is constant or repetitive videos of Iranian regime supporters out in the streets, all right, which makes it look like everything is fine and dandy in Tehran and in other areas of Iran.

But what we don't see, rarely get to see, actually, is those who do not support the regime. We don't get to hear their voices nearly as much. Now, that can be for many reasons, of course, the internet is blocked there, the state media will not allow these people to voice their, their opinions over the air. So I think those who are, do not support the Iranian regime do need help. But are they willing to risk their lives during a war to try to topple this regime? 

It's a very difficult question to answer right now, and I don't see one right now, and we didn't see it during the war too, that's the thing. We didn't see the attempts by Iranians to topple this regime. So will it happen again if there's another war? I just don't know.

EICHER: Joe Truzman is with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Joe, thank you so much.

TRUZMAN: Thank you for having me on.

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