Kicker: Confidence optional

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AUDIO: [crowd chanting] “Phil! Phil! Phil! Phil! Phil!”

NICK EICHER, HOST: Before sunrise in Western Pennsylvania yesterday:

AUDIO: It’s Punxsutawney Phil!

Yep, tens of thousands made the trip, many for the first-time, all of them waiting for a forecast.

AUDIO: Six more weeks of winter!

AUDIO: [crowd booing]

Well, most of the crowd took it in stride:

AUDIO: Six more weeks of winter unfortunately—but Groundhogs Day, WOO! / I mean, tradition is everything, I mean, to be here at 2 in the morning with everybody… unreal. / Yeah, truly unreal.

Umm, hmm, “unreal”, I think that's right, because for all the pageantry, the record shows Punxsutawney Phil gets it right about a third of the time.

And he is not the lone weather rodent … just the most famous.

More than seventy fellow groundhog prognosticators weighed in. A quick survey found just over half agreed with Phil; the others did not.

So about that six weeks—let's just say: confidence high, consensus optional.

It’s The World and Everything in It.

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