Cards on the table

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 24th of March. So glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. 

Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

First up, the art of the deal in Iran.

President Trump says American airstrikes targeting Iran’s energy sector are on hold this week as conversations with Iran ramp up.

TRUMP: With Iran, we’ve been negotiating a long time, and this time they mean business.

REICHARD: This comes after intermediate-range ballistic missiles aimed at a U.S. base in the Indian Ocean fell short of the target. Iran has since claimed it's military did not fire the missiles. What leverage does it have for negotiating with the U.S.?

EICHER: Joining us now is Alex Vetanka. He's a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran. He is also a senior fellow in Middle East studies at the U.S. Air Force Special Operations School.

REICHARD: Alex, good morning.

ALEX VATANKA: Good morning, great to be with you.

REICHARD: So glad you're here. Well, the president postponed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, saying talks with Iran were going well. But Iran has not confirmed those talks, and at this point in the conflict, who do you think holds which card?

VATANKA: Yeah, as you said, the Iranian side are saying there are no talks going on, and yet we know for a fact that a number of countries have volunteered to basically mediate. Well, it's Turkey, the Gulf Arab states, even Egypt and Pakistan have been mentioned. 

In terms of who's holding the cards, look, end of the day in terms of the military side of things, the United States and Israel have the upper hand. But what Iran has proven is that it can take the global economy hostage, if you will, and they can probably do that for some time to come. And that is probably one of the reasons why the American president right now is looking for a way out if he can find that off-ramp.

EICHER: Alex, is that the primary weapon that Iran has? If this drags on a bit and becomes more of a long-term conflict? Is Iran's primary weapon here economic?

VATANKA: Yes, and they can only do so by really hurting as many countries as possible. And they do so through the sort of essentially, if you will, the energy factor as a weapon. So, you know, people need to remember about 40% of the world's natural gas and about 50% of the world's oil is based in and around the Persian Gulf region. This is a lot of energy concentrated in a small place where the largest country is Iran. So, other than that, there's really not much Iran can do, so they're very focused on a particular set of targets in the Persian Gulf region. And they're hoping that just getting the world to pay attention would be enough to put pressure on the Trump administration and make the American president think twice about how long he wants to stay in this war.

EICHER: I am curious about one of the things that we have seen. One of those things is the missile launch toward the U.S.-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, indicating that they can target areas a good deal farther than what was previously thought. 

Do you think that that vindicates some of the pre-war rationale given about the Iranian threat?

VATANKA: I mean, look, the Islamic Republic can be criticized for all sorts of bad things it's done at home to its own people, and certainly the United States going back to 79. But I don't necessarily think the range of their missiles was, you know, in terms of being sufficient as a pretext for this war, merits it. I don't think it holds water. You can make the case why U.S. had to go to war, but I don't necessarily think focusing on the missiles and the range justifies it.

REICHARD: Alex, let's talk expectations. So far, the decapitation of the leadership of Iran has not led to its collapse. In fact, it led to a consolidation of power by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the IRGC has now taken a firmer hand in decision making.

So my question is, is this a shift from clerical legitimacy to military survival?

VATANKA: I would actually say that the Revolutionary Guards, or IRGC, have been running Iran for a number of years now. Now Khamenei is dead, the Revolutionary Guards are, as you pointed out, consolidating their power. But going forward, I don't necessarily think consolidation of power necessarily means hardening of their position. 

Because I think fundamentally, as an organization, they're not suicidal. If there's a way for them to sort of continue to live once this war is over, if there is a way where they can go back and make money and have access to power, they will likely consider seriously any off-ramp opportunities that show up.

REICHARD: What else are you watching for this week in particular?

VATANKA: You know, obviously the latest suggestion that U.S. and Iran are talking, if this turns out to be true, if there is a diplomatic track that can be had, you know, it is extremely important for the region, for the United States, for Iran, to look for that comprehensive deal, if you will. 

The idea that you have another interim deal that deals with for example, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or ending the conflict as far as the hot shooting war is concerned, that's just, I think would be a missed opportunity. What you need right now is, my kind of hope essentially, is to see if I can detect a more comprehensive move by a number of countries that come together and say, "Can we have a comprehensive solution of sorts?" That obviously would be a very tall order, it would include things like U.S. and Iran having a serious detente, but also Israel and Iran--that's the other thing that we shouldn't forget. So much of this is about Israel and Iran. 

Again, it's not something that's gonna happen this week, but if you see sort of signs that that might be the pathway forward, a political dialogue that is built on a ceasefire that prevents the world from having to go through this again anytime in the near future. And I think that would be wonderful if that happened.

EICHER: Alex Vatanka is senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. 

Alex, thanks so much.

VATANKA: Thanks for having me, pleasure.

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