On abortion, Trump is his own worst enemy

I cannot think of a worse moment in my life to be a fervent pro-life voter. There is no denying the obvious: Abortion is popular in America.

Every time abortion has been on state ballots, it has lost decisively.

Now, seeking to expand their coalition for a win in November, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are pivoting to what is virtually indistinguishable from where many moderate Democrats were on abortion in the 1990s. From an unclear statement by former President Trump that his administration will be “great for women and their reproductive rights” to Sen. Vance saying that Trump would veto a national abortion ban, the Trump-Vance ticket is doing the opposite of what pro-life voters (who make up a massive proportion of the Republican coalition) expect of it. Trump has made other dispiriting comments elsewhere.

Trump and Vance deserve to hear from the pro-life community. On the off chance that someone related to their campaign sees this, please read this sentence slowly: The Trump campaign stands only to lose support by backpedaling on abortion.

On the one hand, Trump and Vance are doing entirely rational things. They want to win, and how do you win? You lessen the grip on the issues that cost you votes. It is a rationally motivated activity to look at abortion’s popularity in America and think, “We cannot be on the wrong side of the majority.”

I understand it even as I reject it.

But we should recognize what’s at stake at its starkest: Trump is betraying voters who have the most reason to vote for him and the most reason to stay home because of him in 2024.

Trump was a historic pro-life president in his first term. We need not rehash all the reasons why. He deserves our gratitude for what his administration accomplished. He also deserves to hear the reality that there are many, many pro-life voters in America for whom this issue alone is the moral red line. If Trump is viewed as positively expanding access to abortion, there will be massive electoral ramifications. I know many devout evangelical Christians who are stalwart conservatives who will not vote for Trump if he is viewed as positively pro-abortion.

There are two layers of betrayal in what is occurring.

There’s a moral betrayal to Trump’s calculation, namely, a betrayal at the heart of the Republican Party’s original commitment to oppose “barbarism” (as its original 1856 platform said of slavery) when it comes to human dignity. Human dignity is a principle that should defy majoritarian sentiment.

There’s also a commonsense betrayal. Trump and his team are no fools, and they should know better than to use careless rhetoric when no federal policy change is likely. Their language demoralizes and suppresses their base while accomplishing little through actual electoral gain. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have the votes at the federal level to make any of their wishes on abortion come true. Even if the filibuster were gone, there would not be 50 Republican votes for federal legislation since many Republicans take a federalist approach. This is not to discount the error of Trump and Vance trying to sidestep the issue, but the federal legislation angle is largely irrelevant—for now.

Trump and Vance must know they cannot run from protecting the unborn. To do so would be catastrophic and demoralizing for a large swath of those inclined to vote for them. It is one thing to acknowledge legislative realities, but it is another to talk impudently and indifferently.

Trump’s downplaying and obfuscating on abortion and the humiliation of his pro-life base in the process is profoundly misguided. All this triangulation does is serve to depress the pro-life vote. The many Christians who held their nose and voted for Trump because he promised to be pro-life and not enact a progressive agenda are finding themselves left with a Donald Trump who possesses the same tawdry character and who is now sounding like a progressive. Mr. Trump: Please do better than this. And let us state the miscalculation most bluntly: No Trump-skeptic voter is going to look at his easing on abortion and think, “Yes, that is what will cause me to vote for him.” Trump trying to make himself more “moderate” on abortion will not earn him accolades among the determined who hate him.

My suggestion is that Trump must do something to allay the concerns of the pro-life community. Talk about what the executive branch can do to protect life. Offer a list of judicial appointees that demonstrate a pro-life jurisprudence. Use the bully pulpit to talk about why families, babies, and the culture of life are better and more beautiful than a culture of sterility, barrenness, and death. Distinguish yourself from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s pro-abortion agenda.

Trump had better offer up something positive, or, once again, he will be his own worst enemy. The parable of Donald Trump is one for whom snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is his brand. Even if Trump and Vance want to sidestep the abortion issue and punt it to state-level politics, they should not give the wrong side the rhetorical wins that pro-abortion forces so badly want. Regardless of debates about federal or state roles, there should always be the argument that fostering a culture of life by loving children is a mark of a decent and humane nation.