Don’t trust the Houthi retreat

After roughly 18 months of terrorizing Red Sea shipping vessels, firing missiles, attacking cities in Israel, and exchanging fire with American forces, the Houthi militia appears to have relented, declaring a ceasefire—at least for now.

What prompted this shift?

On April 4, the Iran-backed terrorist group targeted Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport with a ballistic missile, which they claimed used stealth technology and had a range of about 1,336 miles. This marked a significant escalation, as the missile struck the airport’s main terminal, damaging property and roads and injuring eight people. Israel’s advanced defense systems failed to intercept the attack, a rare breach of its defenses. The Houthis claimed a major victory, stating the attack was in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza and warning of a “comprehensive aerial blockade” on Israel by targeting more airports.

Israel responded decisively. After issuing warnings and evacuation orders to Yemeni civilians, it struck Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa and other strategic infrastructure. The strikes destroyed aircraft and parts of Sanaa’s airport, rendering it “completely destroyed,” according to a Yemeni official. Facing this retaliation, alongside months of U.S. military pressure, the Houthis announced a ceasefire. President Donald Trump noted that the Houthis “don’t want to fight anymore” and said U.S. strikes would halt. The ceasefire, mediated by Oman, included a Houthi commitment to stop targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Should we view this as a genuine defeat of the Houthi terrorists? Not so fast. This is better seen as a tactical retreat, not a surrender.

On the one hand, the ceasefire is a calculated move. Since their attacks on Red Sea shipping began in November 2023, they’ve faced economic challenges and disrupted weapon supplies, particularly due to the weakening of their key backers, Iran and Hezbollah. They have also been in a decade-long fight, and with Trump back in office, the Houthis likely recognized they could not withstand sustained U.S. military pressure. Their ceasefire announcement is a strategic maneuver to minimize losses and preserve their weakened position, hoping to regroup and regain power.

On the other hand, the ceasefire reflects the success of Trump’s “peace through strength” approach. War and loss of life should not be glorified, but the Houthis respond primarily to overwhelming power. This aligns with a broader Middle Eastern, and particularly Arab, cultural respect for strength. Diplomacy and negotiations work only when backed by decisive force. The Houthis’ ceasefire suggests they take Trump seriously, knowing he is prepared to deploy the full might of the U.S. military. Since taking office, Trump has reinstated the Houthis on the list of terrorist organizations, thus forcing the draining of any possible resources for the terrorists. He directed an intense bombing campaign, eliminating hundreds of their fighters. Since March, the U.S. bombing campaign was unprecedented in scale, targeting over 1,000 Houthi sites, including missile and drone systems, radars, and leadership. Additionally, according to the U.S. military, there has been a 69% reduction in Houthi ballistic missile launches and a 55% drop in drone attacks since the campaign began, suggesting a significant degradation of their capabilities. This pressure forced them to pause and reassess.

What should we expect from the Houthis now?

The ceasefire is unlikely to be permanent. The Houthis thrive on conflict and have survived Saudi attacks and international (particularly U.S.-UK) strikes in the past. And Iran is unlikely to let them fade entirely. Theologically driven, they view themselves as “Ansar Allah” (Allah’s Supporters), claiming legitimacy through descent from Islam’s prophet. This theological thrust keeps them going. Their slogan—“Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, and Victory to Islam”—mirrors Iran’s rhetoric, labeling the United States as the “Great Satan.” Aligned with Iran’s interests, the Houthis are committed to confronting the United States and its allies as part of their vision for Islam’s triumph. Their announcement for a ceasefire is likely a temporary tactic, in hopes for a change in the balance of power in the region.

Trump’s strategy of overwhelming military force, assertive messaging, and Omani-mediated diplomacy compelled the Houthis to halt their Red Sea attacks. By pressuring Iran and sustaining an intense campaign, the United States disrupted Houthi operations, forcing them to avoid further losses. However, their continued attacks on Israel and historical resilience show they are not fully defeated.

In sum, Trump’s assertive approach has secured a temporary ceasefire, but the Houthis remain a threat.