Workforce boost

Amid bleak estimates of a skyrocketing federal deficit, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that an upswing in net immigration will reduce the federal debt by about $990 billion over the next 10 years.

In its report, the CBO said net immigration, the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country, will likely be 8.7 million people higher than its original estimate. Prior to the pandemic, the agency predicted 1 million people would come to the United States in 2023. Now, it says 3.3 million people immigrated last year.

The CBO includes immigrants who entered illegally and obtained a permanent legal status, those who entered under a parole program and are waiting for a final decision, and individuals who overstayed their temporary legal status. The office predicts the increase will boost tax revenues by $1.2 trillion, though its report said only about half of immigrants will be authorized to work and pay taxes.

“Immigrants who work without authorization will pay some taxes but are considered less likely to do so than the rest of the population,” it noted.

The office cited historical research showing immigration typically raises more revenue than the influx of people costs. For instance, mass migration to the U.S. between 1850 and 1920 provided a wealth of unskilled labor for early industrialization along with a smaller number of highly skilled individuals who inspired innovation.

Still, CBO projections aren’t always accurate, and reaction to the latest report included some skepticism. “Economic history shouldn’t make one sanguine about America’s current fiscal situation,” warned James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute. Historically, he noted, out-of-control borrowing has led to economic instability.

Despite any immigration-fueled gains, the government is on track this fiscal year to accumulate a deficit $400 billion greater than expected.

Qian Weizhong/VCG via AP

New asylum rules slow crossings

Border arrests have dipped more than 40 percent since the Biden administration implemented a new crackdown on asylum processing, the Department of Homeland Security reported in June. The department said it was the lowest number of illegal crossings since the week before President Biden took office.

In early June, Biden announced a ban on immigrants claiming asylum between ports of entry once the daily average of illegal crossings exceeds 2,500 for seven days in a row. Asylum-seekers can still request an appointment at a port of entry using Customs and Border Protection’s mobile app, though they face a more rigorous screening during interviews with asylum officers under Biden’s executive action. After Biden’s order went into effect, average daily arrests fell below 2,400, down from an average of about 5,500 per day in May.

Still, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey sent a delegation to the border at the end of June to warn immigrants that current asylum-seekers have already overwhelmed emergency shelters there. —A.O.