Winter of discontent

Donald Trump’s hand-picked playlists before his raucous campaign rallies likely trigger nostalgia for voters of his own generation: While they wait for the Republican candidate to appear, audiences sway to songs from Elvis Presley, The Rolling Stones, and Elton John.

When Trump does appear, usually without a formal introduction, a tune from a different era often blares through the crowd: the 1980s heavy metal anthem “We’re Not Gonna Take It.”

Call it the theme of the 2016 presidential campaign.

The song and its mantra evoke a scene from the 1976 film Network, when an unhinged television anchor rails against the ills of American society and urges his viewers to fling open their windows and scream, “I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!” (They do.)

For Trump, and a handful of other presidential candidates, angst sells.

“I will gladly wear the mantle of anger,” the Republican business mogul has said. “I’m angry because our country is a mess.”

Many voters agree. At a campaign rally in Greenville, S.C., last fall, a Trump supporter complained, “I’m sick and tired of waiting in line behind Mexicans at Walmart—and you know they’re illegal.”

But not all Trump supporters are outraged or outlandish. Many are overwhelmed. Trump’s base of blue-collar voters, including many who have never voted in a presidential election before, show the candidate has tapped into a current of anxious Americans with real-world problems.

Whether that brewing anger will translate into enough votes for Trump’s nomination bid is unclear, particularly after his second-place finish in the Iowa caucus on Feb. 1.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, another candidate who taps into voter ire, won first place in Iowa, gutting Trump’s predictions of an easy victory. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., finished closely behind Trump, surprising the field, and propelling him into the top tier of GOP candidates.

Whatever happens in coming weeks, voter angst will remain, and GOP contenders will have a significant opportunity: Don’t ignore the anger, but don’t merely stir it. Instead, show why conservative principles are good for everyone, even for those who might not normally think so.

THE REAL-WORLD PROBLEMS on many of those voters’ minds include the still-sluggish economy. Though the U.S. Labor Department reported last year’s unemployment rate at 5 percent, the rate climbs to 9.9 percent when including workers stuck in part-time jobs or those who have given up looking for work.

Wage growth remains slow, and workers in industries like construction feel the pinch when outdoor jobs dwindle during winter months. The manufacturing sector, another niche for blue-collar Americans, added 35,000 jobs in 2015, but that was compared to 200,000 jobs added the year before.

Indeed, legions of unseen dramas play out in households across the country: The woman who doesn’t go to the doctor because her healthcare deductible is too high. The small-business owner who creates local jobs, but folds because government regulations are too costly.

Trump’s response is less political activism and more class warfare: The little guy versus the big system. His sweeping but logistically vague promises to bring back jobs (and quickly defeat the Islamic State) appeal to a swath of fed-up Republicans and disaffected Democrats unsure if either party offers answers.

Meanwhile, Cruz has waged another kind of class warfare: the ideologically pure against the supposed enablers of the status quo in a declining culture.

Cruz’s pitch has included a hard line on immigration and a distaste for those with “New York values.” (This argument briefly backfired at a recent debate when Trump pointed out the worthy values of New Yorkers like those who cleaned up the World Trade Center site after 9/11 and rebuilt lower Manhattan.)

Still, Cruz’s appeal to evangelicals who are legitimately worried about religious liberty and social issues propelled him to first place in the Iowa caucus, and set the tone for a blitz through Southern states with similar demographics of evangelical voters. (South Carolina holds its Republican primary on Feb. 20, and a slate of other Southern states hold primaries on March 1.)

While both Cruz and Trump have carved a niche by tapping into a specific kind of voter angst, and hoping other categories of GOP voters will follow, it’s unclear how far the strategy will take each candidate. For other contenders, another opportunity arises: Show why conservatism is good for all Americans.

That means instead of tailoring messages for specific subgroups of fed-up voters, a larger challenge for a GOP candidate is to communicate why conservative principles serve a common good that benefits everyone: rich and poor, black and white, Latino and Asian, evangelical and secular—all of whom struggle with their own problems.

For example, fiscal responsibility is good, and restraint yields economic results. Human life is good, and protecting it is honorable. Work is good, and creating conditions for workers to flourish is vital.

Plenty of American voters (probably roughly half) will still gravitate toward Democratic candidates urging a system of bigger government and socially liberal positions, like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., the socialist candidate who nearly tied Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

‘Too few on the right have been willing over the past many years to recognize the legitimate frustrations of millions of Americans.’ —Michael Strain

But at least a swath of the electorate might listen to a compelling conservative package that includes them.

Michael Strain of the conservative American Enterprise Institute wrote in January: “Too few on the right have been willing over the past many years to recognize the legitimate frustrations of millions of Americans, manifested in the palpable populist anger that is fueling Trump and Cruz, and attempt to channel those frustrations to productive and helpful ends.”

Some Republicans have certainly tried such efforts, and have been stymied by an Obama administration that has presided over an expensive healthcare mandate, a massive web of costly federal regulations, and a burdensome tax code. But there’s still plenty of room to improve.

Black voters, for example, have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates since the 1970s. More than 90 percent of black voters chose Obama in the last election. But at least one prominent black pastor noted Republicans did little to engage black voters in 2012.

E.W. Jackson Sr. of Exodus Faith Ministries urged his fellow African-American Christians in 2012 to “end the slavish devotion to the Democratic Party.” But Jackson also said he saw little GOP effort to reach out to black voters.

The same year, Crystal Wright—author of the blog Conservative Black Chick—said the Republican National Committee had hired her to create a website to reach African-Americans but the party wouldn’t fund any outreach activities she suggested for Republican candidates to meet with black voters.

During a poverty forum in Aiken, S.C., New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie urged his party to meet and listen to minority groups sometimes skipped over by GOP candidates: “We as Republicans have to go back to campaigning in places we feel uncomfortable.”

WHEN IT COMES TO TRUMP, the billionaire sticks to the places he feels most comfortable: large crowds that love his politically incorrect performances.

When it comes to policy, Trump largely touts trade proposals most conservative economists reject, like soaring tariffs (as high as 45 percent) on goods imported from China.

While Trump says such high taxes would encourage American manufacturers to produce goods in the United States, they would also slam consumers relying on cheaper goods and cripple American-based manufacturers who still buy some parts and equipment from overseas.

He suggests that building a wall on the border with Mexico will stop illegal immigrants from taking American jobs. But while illegal immigration is a legitimate problem that needs to be addressed, some economists say that low-skill immigrants typically fill jobs most Americans are unwilling to take. These counterarguments don’t deter most Trump supporters, and the candidate has a surefire method for discounting criticism supporters might hear or read about his proposals: He regularly berates the media, calling the reporters at his events “scum” and “miserable people.”

Recognizing American anxiety over the economy, the other GOP candidates have toiled to make a more robust case for growth. Nearly all the Republican candidates call for cutting the crippling corporate tax rate (the federal rate is 35 percent) and reducing government regulations. (Cruz says he’ll eliminate the IRS.)

Sen. Rubio has called for sweeping tax reform and says he would also encourage more vocational training for high-school graduates, famously quipping, “We need more welders and less philosophers.”

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus in 2012 by strongly appealing to both evangelicals and blue-collar voters. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has touted his record of slashing taxes during his tenure in the Sunshine State and seems chagrined he can’t get more traction by emphasizing basic economics.

Though it’s not clear whether Trump can blunt his opponents’ momentum, he has stuck to his trademark blunt style.

At a recent Trump rally in Rock Hill, S.C., Trump told the crowd that the country is run by “stupid people” and promised, “We’re going to kick the [expletive] out of ISIS, and fast.” The crowd chanted, “USA, USA,” when a gaggle of police officers ejected a Muslim woman who silently stood up during Trump’s speech.

After the rally, supporter David Lauck stood against a wall in the packed sports arena, quietly explaining why he likes Trump: “He speaks plain. He don’t sugarcoat it. And I think that’s what we need.”

Lauck had made a short walk to get there: He parked across the street in his church’s parking lot. Lauck said he likes Cruz and Rubio because of their Christian convictions and positions on social issues, but he thinks Trump would be more effective on issues like national security and immigration: “I just think he has the power.”

Lauck isn’t the only social conservative supporting Trump. Though it’s unclear how many evangelicals back the candidate in South Carolina, Oran Smith of the Palmetto Family Council said he thinks Trump is picking up support from blue-collar Christians, based on current polling: “He has so much support in South Carolina, there have to be some evangelicals in it.”

(Tony Beam, a pastor, popular Christian radio host, and Cruz supporter in South Carolina, recently lamented the stream of evangelicals calling in to his program to support Trump.)

‘[Trump] has so much support in South Carolina, there have to be some evangelicals in it.’ —Oran Smith

Smith said he thinks most evangelicals in the state would back Cruz or Rubio, particularly if they are often politically engaged. But for churchgoers who aren’t as politically active, perhaps even voting for the first time, Smith says, Trump may be gaining support.

IF VOTER ECONOMIC ANGST is indeed the key to Trump’s appeal, evangelicals are certainly not immune.

Outside of South Carolina, Trump picked up a major evangelical endorsement in another Southern state days before the Iowa caucus, as Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr. publicly backed the candidate on Jan. 26.

Earlier in the month when Trump visited Liberty, Falwell introduced him as a man who “lives a life of loving and helping others as Jesus taught in the great commandment.”

Falwell’s endorsement drew swift and widespread backlash from a network of dismayed Liberty graduates. Many pointed out egregious character issues: Trump has been married three times, has bragged about his past sexual promiscuity, and boasts of his greed and love of money.

Falwell responded to the backlash with an op-ed and wrote: “This nation needs a citizen legislator who is a tough negotiator … a businessman who has built companies from the ground up, and who will use those experiences to be tough with China, ISIS and nations that are taking advantage of the United States by stealing our jobs.”

Of Trump’s moral indiscretions, Falwell concluded: “Jesus said ‘Judge not, lest ye be judged.’ Let’s stop trying to choose the political leaders who we believe are the most godly because, in reality, only God knows people’s hearts. You and I don’t, and we are all sinners.”

It was a perplexing argument from someone who said Trump’s blunt approach reminded him of his father, the late Jerry Falwell Sr. The elder Falwell was indeed blunt in his cultural assessments, including his criticisms of President Bill Clinton’s sexual sins with a White House intern in the late 1990s.

In an interview with CBS, the elder Falwell had said he thought Clinton should step down from office because of his affair with Monica Lewinsky, and that other unfaithful politicians should resign as well: “There’s no question that Bill Clinton has lowered the moral bar for political officeholders in America.”

John Stemberger of the Florida Family Policy Council wrote that the Liberty University founder would be “rolling over in his grave” if he knew his son endorsed Trump for president.

In an interview before the endorsement, Stemberger told WORLD he understands voters’ anger with political corruption and a broken system. But he believes choosing Trump isn’t the answer: “The anger of man does not produce the righteousness that God requires.”