Who will succeed Francis?

As Catholics around the world mourn the death of Pope Francis, rumors about his possible successor have begun to percolate.

The election process, known as a conclave, is shrouded in mystery by design. The Italians even have a proverb for it: “Chi entra papa in conclave, esce cardinale,” which translates as “Whoever enters a conclave as a pope exits as a cardinal.” In other words, papal elections usually defy expectations. Speculating about a successor to Pope Francis is particularly difficult, mostly because of how the pontiff’s often-cloudy leadership positioned the future trajectory of the Roman Catholic Church.

When the cardinals in 2013 chose Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, Argentina, they hoped he would clean up the church bureaucracy—cleaning up sex-abuse controversies within the church and financial mismanagement at the Vatican. But according to David Gibson, director for the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University, the cardinals likely didn’t anticipate how Bergoglio—who took the name Francis—would re-envision the Catholic church as, in his own words, “a field hospital after battle.”

“And so that’s why they’ve gotten this pope who’s really a great reformer, but a great disruptor as well,” said Gibson.

Much about Francis’ tenure was unconventional, from the way he often donned simple tunics rather than traditional papal garments to his instructions about being buried in the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore instead of the Vatican. Gibson noted Francis “[acted] on his own initiative quite often,” rather than ensuring every pronouncement got the typical Vatican vetting.

While Francis adopted a disruptive demeanor, he may not have been the type of reformer liberal Catholics hoped for, especially on issues like same-sex marriage, divorce, and female ordination. “He marched his men up to the top of the hill, and he marched them down again without anything actually happening,” said Joseph Shaw, chairman of the Latin Mass Society. For example, in December 2023, Francis decreed that priests could bless same-sex couples “without officially validating their status or changing in any way the Church’s perennial teaching on marriage.”

Probably because of their vagueness, such pronouncements managed to irk both conservative and liberal Catholics alike. “There are such people as Pope Francis loyalists, who think that he’s wonderful,” said Shaw. “But in terms of the different theological camps, no one’s really had what they wanted.”

When it came to issues like family and abortion, Francis tended to toe the conservative line while leaning left on topics like environmentalism and immigration policy.

Some analysts anticipate another papacy marked by an emphasis on inclusivity, since Francis appointed 108 of the 135 cardinals who will vote in the upcoming conclave. But the appointments don’t necessarily guarantee the next pope will share Francis’ positions. “There’s no candidate who seems to be Pope Francis’ favored successor,” Shaw said.

In the absence of an heir-apparent, the next leader of the Catholic Church could try to draw more distinctly ideological lines. Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, if elected, could push the church in a more explicitly liberal direction.

Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő and Cardinal Willem Eijk of the Netherlands are also being floated as conservative possibilities. Eijk distinguished himself in 2018 by publishing an open letter criticizing Pope Francis for failing to provide clarity on whether divorcees may receive Communion.

Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin, named by several media outlets as a favorite among the papabile (front-runners for pope), has branded himself as a somewhat theologically moderate candidate in the style of Pope Francis, though he has spoken critically about same-sex relationships.

Despite a widening rift between conservative American Catholics and the Vatican, David Gibson says the majority of Catholics prioritize unity, and that will likely be a determining factor in the coming conclave. American Catholics make up only about 5% of the world’s 1.39 billion Catholics. “[Most Catholics] want to find somebody who can keep the church together, and that would preclude any kind of really aggressively populist, Trumpist kind of pope,” Gibson said. “There’s just nobody in the college who would really fit that bill.”

But Joseph Shaw believes it’s quite possible the College of Cardinals could elect a pope who would decentralize authority away from the Vatican. “Things could develop in a way that the Vatican is not trying to impose a single policy or a single kind of principle, just a bit more autonomy,” he said. In that case, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, Italy, could be the man for the job, since he has been a vocal supporter of the idea of “synodality,” letting individual churches participate in decision-making.

Even if the cardinal electors have a wish list for a future pope, they might not be familiar with many of the candidates when it’s time to cast ballots. A few cardinals are well known, including Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa. He served as patriarch of Jerusalem during the Israel-Hamas war.

But most cardinals won’t have the luxury of relying on name recognition, according to Ashley McGuire, a senior fellow at the Catholic Association.

That’s partly because Francis appointed over 20 cardinals from previously unrepresented countries. He also largely discouraged the cardinals from congregating at the Vatican during his lifetime. “You have the most geographically diverse group of cardinals in the history of the church who also have had very little face time coming together,” McGuire said.

Speculation about who will take up the pope’s mantle won’t circulate for long. Within around 20 days of Francis’ death, Dean of the College of Cardinals Giovanni Battista Re will summon the electors to the Vatican. Before the conclave begins, the cardinals will hold meetings called “general congregations.” Candidates may not campaign during these sessions, but they can get acquainted and discuss their visions for the Catholic Church, a process colloquially referred to as murmuratio, Latin for “whispering.”

All of the cardinals may participate in the general meetings, but only those under the age of 80—currently 135 of 252—may cast votes as cardinal electors. Due to his age, Re will not vote, leaving Parolin to lead the proceedings.

While the conclave is in session, electors forgo all forms of communication with the outside world and take an oath of secrecy, remaining within the walls of the Vatican until they choose a new pope, usually within three to four days. Ballots are burned if no candidate receives at least two-thirds of the vote. Cardinals signal the outcome of each ballot by sending up smoke from the Sistine Chapel. Black smoke means no decision. White smoke means they’ve selected a new pope.

McGuire traveled to Rome to cover the 2013 conclave but can’t recall Bergoglio’s name being mentioned as a candidate until he was announced as pope. She doesn’t expect this time to be different: “There’s too many variables in play to make any kinds of predictions.”

That hasn’t stopped Vatican watchers from guessing. And some are hoping to cash in on their speculation: Sportsbook website BetUS is taking novelty prop bets on the name and country of origin of the next pontiff. Candidates with the highest odds currently include Parolin and Cardinal Mark Ouellet of Canada.

Fordham’s David Gibson laughed off any attempt to profit from speculation. “I wouldn’t waste your money,” he said.