Virginia bellwether

This year in Virginia—one of just two states holding off-year governor’s elections—two women from opposing parties are vying to become the commonwealth’s first female governor. The election results in November could forecast the political winds during the first half of President Donald Trump’s second term.

The leading Democratic candidate, former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, defended her seat in Virginia’s competitive 7th District for three terms. A former CIA case officer, Spanberger declined to run for reelection last year in order to build up a ground game in Virginia. The leading Republican candidate, current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, is a Jamaican immigrant and a Marine veteran. She has made right-to-work protections a cornerstone of her tenure in Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s administration.

The Cook Political Report has rated Virginia’s election as a toss-up, while the race in New Jersey, the other state holding a gubernatorial election this year, leans Democrat. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won both states’ electoral votes during the presidential election last year, but by narrower margins than Democrats typically achieve. A January Christopher Newport University study found Spanberger holding a 5-point lead over Earle-Sears, but roughly 16% of voters were undecided.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., has called the Virginia governor’s race the first bellwether for the public’s view of the ­second Trump administration. If Spanberger wins, Kaine said, it will mark the beginning of a Democratic comeback. A parallel situation occurred in 2021, when Glenn Youngkin ­successfully won the governorship as a Republican during Democratic President Joe Biden’s first term. (Virginia is the only state that ­prohibits governors from serving two consecutive terms in office, which also contributes to party turnover in Richmond.)

With primaries scheduled for June 17, Spanberger and Earle-Sears appear to be shoo-ins for their respective party nominations. The general election will likely be expensive as they seek to drum up support among voters exhausted by the 2024 cycle. In 2021, the state’s two major gubernatorial candidates, Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe, spent a whopping $141 million.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Associated Press / Photo by Todd Richmond

High courts up for grabs

Candidates and political action groups spent over $70 million on state Supreme Court elections in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2023. That figure is expected to be surpassed in similar campaigns this year. Both states flipped Republican in the 2024 presidential election, but liberal court majorities in both states have delivered wins for the Democratic Party on issues like abortion and expanded vote-by-mail options. Wisconsin’s judicial elections are nonpartisan, while Pennsylvania’s are partisan.

An April 1 election in Wisconsin will replace retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, who is part of the court’s 4-3 liberal majority. In Pennsylvania, whose court currently has a 5-2 liberal majority, three Democrats will run in a yes-no retention election in November to keep their Supreme Court seats for additional 10-year terms. —C.L.